Transcript Supply and demand: Cemig GT and the National Grid

Supply and demand:
Cemig GT and the National Grid
Belo Horizonte, May 28, 2012
Marcus Vinícius de Castro Lobato
Supply and demand
in Brazil’s grid (1)
As seen from 2011
90,000
MW
Average
MW-médios
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
Balanço
Surplus(%)
%
Balanço
Surplus, MW
Reserva
Reserve
Term
Thermal
Hydro
Hidr
Market
Mercado
2011
3.6%
2,116
480
12,334
48,851
59,069
2012
3.7%
2,277
1,400
14,199
50,279
62,201
2013
7.7%
5,095
1,716
18,194
53,267
66,366
2014
5.4%
3,751
1,743
18,215
54,802
69,266
Source: PMO of May 2011; analysis by Cemig; Presented at Apimec 2011.
Based on expectation of 5% annual GDP growth over 2011–15.
2
2015
3.5%
2,541
1,746
18,215
56,514
72,188
2016
Supply and demand
in Brazil’s grid (2)
As seen from 2012
90,000
MW
Average
MW-médios
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
Balanço
Surplus(%)
%
Balanço
Surplus, MW
Reserva
Reserve
Term
Thermal
Hydro
Hidr
Market
Mercado
2011
2012
1.3%
776
1,400
13,024
48,815
61,063
2013
1.9%
1,248
1,716
15,054
51,211
65,017
Source: PMO of May 2012; analysis by Cemig.
Based on expectation of 4.4% annual GDP growth over 2012–16.
3
2014
6.0%
4,106
2,203
18,543
53,978
68,415
2015
5.1%
3,595
2,207
18,806
55,799
71,010
2016
2.3%
1,731
3,391
18,776
56,987
74,032
CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply
Conventional sources
APIMEC 2011
Probable
renewals
Negotiations in progress
Copmponents
Secondary supply as transacted in spot
market in 2010; estimate for 2011
4
Available for sales or trading
Intermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading)
Free Market sales – new contracts
Free Market sales (free consumers, and traders)
To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2nd time)
Regulated market sales forecast
Regulated Market sales to distributors
Standard operational agreement
CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply
Conventional sources
APIMEC 2012
Probable
renewals
Negotiations in progress
Copmponents
Secondary supply as transacted in spot
market in 2011; estimate for 2012
5
Available for sales or trading
Intermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading)
Free Market sales – new contracts
Free Market sales (free consumers, and traders)
To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2nd time)
Regulated market sales forecast
Regulated Market sales to distributors
Standard operational agreement
CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply
Conventional sources
APIMEC 2011
Secondary supply as transacted in
spot market in 2010; estimate for 2011
6
Probable
renewals
APIMEC 2012
Negotiations
in progress
Secondary supply as transacted in
spot market in 2011; estimate for 2012
Probable
renewals
Available for sales or trading
Intermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading)
Free Market sales – new contracts
Free Market sales (free consumers, and traders)
To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2nd time)
Regulated market sales forecast
Regulated Market sales to distributors
Standard operational agreement
Negotiations
in progress
CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply
Incentive-bearing sources
APIMEC 2011
Purchases – Traders
Sales with negotiation in progress
Purchases – Wind plants
Probable renewals
Purchases – Small Thermal
Sales already made
Purchases – Small Hydro
7
CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply
Incentive-bearing sources
APIMEC 2012
Purchases – Traders
Sales with negotiation in progress
Purchases – Wind plants
Probable renewals
Purchases – Small Thermal
Sales already made
Purchases – Small Hydro
Purchases with conditions
8