Transcript Document

China: Chongqing Urban-Rural
Linkages Study
Paul Kriss, Water and Urban
Sector Coordinator, World Bank
China & Mongolia Sustainable Development Unit
The World Bank
Analytical study with six
components
• Chongqing’s urbanization strategy in a spatial
perspective
• Overview of basic services
• Review of rural income and agriculture
• Review of the rural land policy
• Overview of the hukou system
• Skills development in Chongqing
Achieving inclusive urbanization:
Chongqing’s urbanization
strategy in a spatial perspective
Rapid growth and urbanization
since 1997
Real GDP per capita growth
Growth rate,
1997-2006
Chongqing
16%
Chongqing’s urban rate
Urban as % of
total
2000
36%
China
2007
12%
48%
But Chongqing remains a middle-ranking
region…
GDP per capita- prefectural level cities, 2007 (yuan)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Guizhou
Gansu
Yunnan
Anhui
Tibet
Guangxi
Jiangxi
Sichuan
Qinghai
Hu'nan
Hainan
Shaanxi
Ningxia
Chongqing
He'nang
Hubei
Shanxi
Xinjiang
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Heibei
Inner
Liaoning
Fujian
Shandong
Guangdong
Jiangsu
Zhejiang
Tianjin
Beijing
Shanghai
… characterized by large urban-rural disparities:
Disposable income per capita (urban):
Net income per capita (rural):
Ratio urban-to-rural:
12,591 yuan
3,509 yuan
3.59
Urban-rural income disparity is similar to other
Chinese regions at similar level of development
Scatterplot of urban-rural disposable income ratio against GDP pc, 2007
Urban-rural disposable income ratio
5
4.5
Chongqing
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
y = -0.9296x + 12.308
1
2
R = 0.6066
0.5
0
8.5
9
9.5
10
ln(GDP per capita, yuan)
10.5
11
11.5
But income gaps overall are larger than the
average for China…
4.5
Chongqing
China
4.03
urban-rural income ratio
4
3.65
3.72
3.5
3.44 3.40
3.24
3
3.13
3.01
2.88
2.80
3.26
3.18
2.86
2.40
2.79
2.71
2.51
2.20
3.33
3.28
3.11
3.02
3.23
3.21
3.22
2.90
2.65
2.58
2.5
3.65
3.45
3.57
3.91
3.67
2.51
2.47
2
1.5
1
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
3.33
0
Jiangsu
Shanghai
Shandong
Zhejiang
Beijing
Liaoning
Heilongjiang
Jiangxi
Hubei
Fujian
Shanxi
Hainan
Guangxi
Sichuan
Inner Mongolia
Hebei
Yunnan
Anhui
Shannxi
Guangdong
Henan
Chongqing
Ningxia
Xinjiang
Jilin
Gansu
Guizhou
…and rural pension coverage is dismally low
compared to rest of China
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
Policy objectives (CMG Master
Plan)
• Promote continued urbanization alongside
narrowing of urban-rural disparities:
– 2012: urban rate 55 %; urban-rural income 2.2:1
– 2020: urban rate 70 %; urban-rural income 2:1
• Target resident population by 2020:
– 1-hr circle: up from 16 mln to 22 mln
– 9 central urban districts: up by 1/3rd to 9 mln
This study provides a framework for thinking about urban-rural
disparities and policies for inclusive urbanisation
Basic concepts: Development in 3D
• Density: Intensity of economic activity per
unit of land
• Distance: costs of getting to places of
opportunity (migration and commuting costs,
costs of transporting goods to market, costs to
rural residents of accessing services in urban
areas)
• Division: economic and social barriers
inhibiting economic interactions
Development in 3D (continued)
• Density
– Productivity and well-being increase with
increasing density
– Reason: agglomeration economies
• Distance
– Productivity and well-being decrease with
increasing distance to density
• Division
– Social and economic inequality (e.g., barriers
reflected in existence of slum communities)
Chongqing’s Economic Situation in 3D
• Relative economic standing explained by distance to density:
“It is not as easy to build a business in Chongqing as in coastal
Shanghai or Shenzhen, which benefit from access to overseas
markets” (Guardian Newspaper, 15th March, 2006)
• Rapid growth 1997-2006 partly explained by decreasing
distance to density and investments in spatially connective
infrastructure:
“With its large pool of low-cost labour, sufficient water and energy
resources and well-developed transportation infrastructure, Chongqing
has comparative advantages in attracting labour-intensive
manufacturing relocating from the coastal regions.” (OECD, 2007)
Urban-rural disparities: high density of urban areas and
large distances of rural areas to this density
Urban rate
Chongqing
Municipality
Northeast
wing
Southeast
wing
One-hour core
Employment
density*
48
Resident
population
density*
267
GDP per
capita, yuan
157
Labor
productivity,
yuan/worker
25,275
31
250
140
14,336
8,030
23
142
90
12,464
7,907
61
631
351
33,302
19,144
1,227
676
49,008
30,692
438
275
22,883
11,964
9 central
N/A
urban districts
Rest of oneN/A
hour core
*Per sq km, in 10,000
12,984
The most productive districts/counties are
the most economically dense
Urban rate and total productivity
70000
Corr(x,y)=0.95242
60000
GDP per employment
50000
40000
30000
20000
Wansheng
10000
0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Urban rate
Same relationship for GDP per capita and at the sectoral level
Wages decline with distance to Chongqing
city…
Distance from Chongqing and average wage of workers at post
35000
Corr(x,y) = -0.58
Yuzhong
30000
Average wage of staffs and workers at post
Dadukou
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Distance from Chongqing
600
700
800
900
Evidence of stronger urban-rural synergies
in more urbanized districts (1)
• Primary sector productivity is higher in more urbanized
districts/counties
Urban rate and primary sector productivity
16000
Primary sector output per primary sector employment
Yongchuan
Corr(x,y)=0.5257
14000
Ba'nan
Tongnan
Jiangjin
12000
10000
8000
Shuangqiao
6000
4000
2000
0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Urban rate
80.0
100.0
120.0
Evidence of stronger urban-rural synergies
in more urbanized districts (2)
• Net income of rural residents is higher in more urbanized
districts
Correlation between urban rate and net income of rural resident of districts in Chongqing
(Corr(x,y) = 0.558356)
7000
Nan'an
6000
Jiulongpo
Shapingba
Jiangbei
Dadukou
Net income of rural resident
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Yuzhong
0
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Urban rate
Source: calculations based on data from
Chongqing Info Centre
Achieve inclusive urbanization by promoting
balanced urban-rural development
• Improve functioning of full portfolio of places
• Exploit and enhance synergies between
places: area-based approach to urbanization
• Promote continued building of density, whilst
integrating peripheral agricultural areas
Historical experience:
• Building of urban density is accompanied by convergence of
living standards and gradual disappearance of urban-rural
disparities
• Chongqing’s aim: accelerate this process
Achieving inclusive urbanization
3D – Build Density, reduce Distance,
eliminate Division
• Blind  institution building
• Connective  infrastructure provision
• Targeted  slum upgrading/clearance/
relocation, place-specific initiatives
2D – Build Density, reduce Distance
• Blind  institution building
• Connective  infrastructure provision
1D – Build Density
• Blind  institution building
Advanced
 75 %
Intermediate
 50 %
Degree of
urbanization
/type of area
Incipient
 25 %
 policy principle: an “I” for a “D”
Dynamic interpretation  guidance on sequencing of
policy instruments
Achieving inclusive urbanization
3D – Build Density, reduce Distance,
eliminate Division
• Blind  institution building
• Connective  infrastructure provision
• Targeted  slum upgrading/clearance/
relocation, place-specific initiatives
2D – Build Density, reduce Distance
• Blind  institution building
• Connective  infrastructure provision
1D – Build Density
• Blind  institution building
Advanced
 75 %
Intermediate
 50 %
Degree of
urbanization
/type of area
Incipient
 25 %
Principle needs to be interpreted flexibly: e.g. trade-off
between building new facilities in rural areas &  rural
access to pre-existing facilities in more urban areas
Policy instruments to achieve inclusive
urbanization
• Spatially blind policies:
– Universal provision of basic services (electricity, water, health,
education) to eliminate inequalities
– Flexible and efficient land and property markets
– Improve law and order (definition and enforcement of property
rights)
– Improve access to credit markets
• Spatially targeted policies:
– Favour one locality over another
• Spatially connective infrastructure:
– Transport infrastructure reduces distances to density
– Between settlements: Relocation of economic activities frees up
space in urban areas for higher value added activities
– Within settlements: Allows settlement to increase level of density
for given level of congestion
Summary
•
Chongqing an intermediate urbanization area with
lagging development and large urban-rural
disparities
– need to build density and reduce distance
• Combination of spatially blind policies and spatially
connective policies appropriate:
– Fill gaps in provision/accessibility to basic
services
– Hukou reform
– Reform of land and property markets
– Strategic investments in transport infrastructure
Rural incomes and agriculture in
Chongqing
Rural Chongqing
•
•
•
•
•
Declining resident population
Increasing rural-urban income gaps
Livestock based agriculture: meat, no dairy
Small farms: 0.10-0.14 ha per rural resident
Family income: 45% farming, 45% wages, 10%
social transfers
• All non-farming income from wages: very little
entrepreneurial business income
Four approaches to raising rural
incomes
• Increases in productivity (output per unit of land
or per head of livestock) – intensive approach
• Increases in endowments (land, livestock,
machinery, fertilizer) – extensive approach
• Increases in commercialization:
– improved access to market channels
– shift to higher value-added products
• Diversification into non-agricultural employment
in rural areas
Overcoming the “curse of smallness”
• Cooperatives (farmers’ associations) for
product marketing and input purchasing:
– Facilitating access to markets for product sales
(grading, packing, wholesale facilities)
– Facilitating access to purchased inputs (feed
centers for mixing and distributing animal feed)
• Encouraging growth through use of hired
labor: public awareness to overcome stigma,
tax breaks to stimulate hiring of workers
Non-farming rural employment
• All non-farming income in Chongqing derives
from wages, none from entrepreneurship
• Development of non-farming businesses
depends on grass-roots entrepreneurship:
government has to identify options
• Public awareness campaign: publicizing
options and opportunities
• Education, skill development, training: public
good to be provided by government
Land Policy Note
31
Land policy challenges in Chongqing
• Land issues are central to the economic and
social transformation in China
• Central Government land policy has been
dynamic, but problems remain
• CMG Master Plan with its ambitious targets for
continued urban growth raises many challenges
• CMG will need to address land reform issues with
targeted policies across all land use types
32
Recommendations to promote coordinated
urban and rural development
• Develop land use planning tools to promote
urban growth yet protect against extensive
farmland conversion
• Introduce reforms to develop efficient land
markets including mortgaging land use rights
• Allow mortgaging of arable land rights and
foundation plots
• Clearly define and document land use rights
• Design uniform land contract and certificate
Recommendations continued (1)
• Restructure urban and rural property rights
registration by establishing a unified system
• Remove prohibitions on collective
construction land
• Support Central Government initiatives in
forestland tenure reform
• Protect rural land use rights against land
readjustments
Recommendations continued (2)
• Improve land requisition and compensation
practices
• Assess requirements for institutional
strengthening and training of personnel
• Investigate alternative sources of sustainable
local government finance
The Hukou System
Need for hukou reform
• People without hukou are not entitled to free
social services at the place of their residence
• The hukou system is a barrier to labor mobility
between rural and urban localities and
between Chongqing and other provinces
• The goal of hukou reform is to reduce income
and welfare disparities between rural and
urban residents: larger in Chongqing than in
rest of China
Role of hukou in social policies
• Urban-rural disparities in dibao – social
assistance program:
– Coverage
– Access criteria
– Benefits
• Limited coverage of rural pension system,
coverage rate low compared to rest of China
How to achieve the goal of hukou
reform?
• Equalize access to social assistance programs
(rural and urban dibao)
• Equalize access to public services (disease
control, health care, maternal/child hygiene,
emergency treatment)
• Ensure equal employment opportunities to
rural and urban residents
• Eliminate restrictions imposed by registration
considerations
Recommendations for hukou
reform
• Study reform experience of other provinces
• Assess fiscal affordability of reform and
prioritize reform actions
• Delink eligibility for social services from
registration and equalize rural-urban
entitlements
• Encourage development of flexible labor
markets and employment opportunities to
support hukou reforms
Skills development
Chongqing’s labor market
characteristics
• Dominated by labor-intensive heavy industries
and services that require low-skilled labor
• Labor surplus economy with half the rural
population looking for employment outside
Chongqing
Chongqing faces three challenges
• Dealing with social consequences of return
migration from coastal provinces hit by the
global economic downturn
• Facilitating the ongoing restructuring of
employment
• Balancing opportunities in the northeast and
southeast wings with those in the one-hour
economic sphere
Education and training will help
Chongqing confront these issues
• Encourage cost-effective use of resources and
introduce accountability for results
• Ensure equal access to schooling in rural and
outlying areas: spatial distribution of schools,
learning outcomes, and quality of education
• Ensure quality and relevance of vocational and
technical education
• Implement school-based reforms to improve
spending effectiveness and education quality
Summary
• WB is accompanying an ongoing successful
process (16% GDP growth/year)
• WB is not leading – Government is – strong
leadership
• Importance of Chongqing is beyond its
borders – if successful, to be replicated
nationally
• Rural urban integration, in whatever form, is
of high importance to the Chinese
government.
Thank you