Transcript GRTPowerpoint-SaudiArabiaEurope

A Comparative Analysis of Global-Regional
Trends in Causality and Carbon Emissions
Will Ferriby
Will Hannon
Nick Thornburg
Chris Valach
EECE 449, Spring 2010
Project Objectives
• Quantified causality model of data from 60 world
countries and US for future project use
• National causality trend analysis of carbon emissions of
specific world countries
• Comparison of the causal commonalities within and
among different regions
• Proof that no such "master formula" of predicting carbon
emissions exists
• Comprehension of global and regional patterns of carbon
dioxide emissions over time for insight into the driving
forces of climate change
Approach and Methodology
• Individual case studies of world countries with diverse
causal factors and geographical uniqueness
• Estimation of global-regional carbon footprints for
Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America via
causality framework analysis of driving factors:
population, GDP/Person, Energy/GDP, Carbon/Energy.
• Identification of trends in driving forces
 Cause of carbon emissions and footprint
• Extension of regional analysis to US as additional world
region, with internal comparison among states.
Causality Factors for Saudi Arabia
• Increases in Population and
Energy/GDP
•Decrease in GDP/Person and
CO2/Energy
•The Population and Energy/GDP
both drive Carbon emissions up
while GDP/Person and
CO2/Energy drive it down.
•Increase in Population and
GDP/Person
•Decrease in Energy/GDP and
CO2/Energy
•Now the forces driving CO2 up
are GDP/Person and Population
while Energy/GDP and
CO2/Energy drove it down.
Case Study: South Africa
• South Africa is a country
that has gone through
political and economic
turmoil during the 1980s
and 1990s and has only
begun to rebound
• Yet through this rebound
they have begun to expand
in a sustainable way with
their emissions per energy
and energy per GDP
actually decreasing during
the 2000s
More Trends of Indicators: South America
Explanation
European Carbon per Capita Trends
•
•
•
The European countries
can be seen to converge
to two points of carbon per
Capita Emissions
Looking at the line graphs
we see that the Eastern
European Countries have
been decreasing their
emissions to get to these
points.
Western European
countries have been
staying relatively the same
in their Carbon/Capita
emissions
Regional Causality: South America
Countries Analyzed: Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela
Principal Causality Driving Factor: GDP/Person
• GDP/Person: skyrocketing trend from 1960-2005
• Agricultural economy  Export-based industrialization
• Shift toward democratization and increase in standard of living
• Energy/GDP: net decrease
over 35 year time period.
• Internal energy resources in
export-based agriculturalism
• CO2/Energy: relative stability,
near-zero trend evolution
• Transition to new-age
renewable energy resources;
domestic resources
Regional Causality: Southeast Asia
• Overall this region has very much come alive economically over the
time period 1960-2005
• China has emerged as a huge economic power especially during
the late 1990s
• Japan was the second largest economy during the 1950s and
continued to grow until a recession in the 1990s
• Other countries have followed similar trends, just not to the extent of
these two
• Unfortunately along with these economic has been large increases
in carbon dioxide emissions
• Except for Japan most of these countries have become less efficient
overtime
• This area is a place where growth will continue but some measure of
sustainability could be introduced in order for emission to not
increase indefinitely
Trends of Indicators: Southeast Asia
Analysis of the United States
The general analytical methods applied to the global
regions and countries were applied to US States
This allowed us to break down the emission driving trends
within regions of the country via four main categories
– Population growth
– GDP per capita
– Energy/GDP
– Carbon/Energy
Results
Overall US States emissions changes were as a result of a
few main trends:
– GDP explosion, especially early
– Decrease in Energy/GDP
Texas Example
Selected States
Regional Variations
Southern and Western states experienced a significant
increase in population
This driver caused the states to increase emissions more
than their northeastern counterparts
The southern areas also experienced a larger drop in
Carbon per Energy
– Fought against previous trend
– Was not as significant
Summary and Conclusions
• Regional causality frameworks and case studies of
countries prove strong socioeconomic and historical
dependence of causal factors
• No such “master formula” for causality analysis
• Intrinsic relationship with economic development
• Establishment of framework for sustainable future
• Parallel of trends and driving factors in the US
References
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Case Study: Canada
GDP/Person:
• Most notably variant
• 1970’s: Auto trade;
foreign investment
 768% increase in 35 years!
Energy/GDP:
• Oil reserves
• National Energy Program
• Largest decadal decreases
 Drastic decadal decreases
CO2/Energy:
• Decreasing trend
• Only 64% rise in total
CO2 emissions
• Energy efficiency
• Technological
advancements