Transcript THE FINANCIAL AND FISCAL COMMISSION`S SUBMISSION ON

THE FINANCIAL AND FISCAL
COMMISSION’S
SUBMISSION ON THE
DIVISION OF REVENUE
BILL 2005
2 March 2005
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INTRODUCTION
Mandate and Objectives:
• Legislative Mandate from IGFR Act of 1997 involves
consultation with Minister of Finance 14 days prior to
introduction of D.o.R.B.
• This takes form of comment and analysis of division
of revenue (1994 – 2004) compared to 2005 M.T.E.F.
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Outcome of Process
 Preliminary observations
 Recommendations
Recommendations
Fully Accepted
Accepted in Principle
Institutional Capacity
Not Accepted
Availability of Data
Further work
Elaborated Recommendations
New Recommendations
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METHODOLOGY
• Evaluation against criteria in S 214 a-j,
progressive realization of CMBS and other
principles of IGFR raised by F.F.C.
• Continuous development through stakeholder
consultation (Legislatures and Government
departments).
• Undertaking own research
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INTRODUCTION
 Document
Structure
Framework:
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and
Analytical
Introduction and Methodology
Review of Dialogue with Government
Commission
Recommendations
Macroeconomic Policy
Trends in the Division of Revenue
Provision of Basic Social Services
Provision of Basic Infrastructure Services.
on
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INTRODUCTION CONT
• Analytical framework links national policy
objectives with performance indicators
against variable norms & standards.
• Document does not deal with in-year
disbursement & reporting procedures.
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REVIEW OF THE PROVINCIAL
EQUITABLE SHARE (PES)
Augmenting provincial revenue
 Exploiting the opportunities of the PTRPA (2001)
 Gives provinces a strategic opportunity to plan &
alter their spending patterns in line with their
needs
 Reduction of economic activity weighting may
represent an indirect incentive for provinces to
increase own revenue
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REVIEW OF THE PROVINCIAL EQUITABLE
SHARE (PES)
Performance of individual components
reviewed against:
 Set policy objectives, norms and standards
 Improvement of equity in access to basic services;
and
 Efficiency in utilizing public resources
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Economic Activity
 Economic Activity
 Public infrastructure tends to come under pressure
in areas with high economic activity
 FFC requires more information on the choice of the
weight
 Not clear how the weight was arrived at
 Trade-off with the poverty component?
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Poverty components
Poverty issues
 Introduction of 3% poverty component in the new formula
 Need for a proper definition of what this component
seeks to achieve, as well as the method (empirically
tested) used to determine relative weight
Consideration of socio-economic status for different
beneficiary groupings
 Political imperatives and government priorities
 FFC will conduct a review of all transfers aimed at
targeting poverty
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Services Components
In Health key issues relates to:
 Medical aid vs. non-medical aid population
 Demographic group utilization rates and appropriate data
In Education key issues relate to:
 Adjustment of learner to school going age children, and the
inclusion of ECD
In the case of Conditional Grants
 PCGM - a flexible tool to financing provincial infrastructure
needs
 Advantage of allowing provinces to prioritise according to
own circumstances
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Services Components
 In the case of Social Development key issues are:
 Shifting of social security grants to national sphere
 The financing of welfare services
 Need to respond more directly on defining a basket of services
With respect to Backlogs component
 Creation of a separate CG to deal with infrastructure
 FFC concern addressed but no agreement on implementing the PCGM
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Review of the Local Equitable Share (LES)
Funding Windows
 Government agrees with the abolition of the ‘windows
approach’
Cost Disabilities
 Government agrees that cost disabilities require a
differentiated delivery approach
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LES cont
Revenue Raising & Spill over components
 Government agrees to incorporating revenue raising
capacity in the LES
 Further work with respect to design and definition of the spill
over component
Measuring Basic Municipal Expenditure
Needs
 Government should define a basket of basic municipal
services
 Protecting the LES from being ceded by municipalities
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LES Cont
Structure of the formula
 Government agrees with FFC’s components based
approach
 Needs further guidance on how spillovers can be taken
into account
 FFC will address this as soon as it has clarity on
reformed RSC levies
 Basic service costs can not be used for determining
allocations although research on these is welcomed
• FFC notes that the research that it carries out is aimed at informing
resource allocations
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LES Cont
Pledging of LES for loans
 Government will not amend MFMA
 Government agrees that delivery of basic services should
not be compromised
 FFC obtained legal advice on the matter and only wanted
to ensure that basic services are protected either through
amendment to the Act or other treasury regulations
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ECONOMIC AND FISCAL POLICY
Growth, Investment and Savings Policy:
• Government wants to increase rate of investment from 16% to
25% of GDP to lift average growth rate from 2.8% p.a. to
between 5% and 6% p.a. required to reduce unemployment.
• Public infrastructure spending is projected to increase from 5.5%
in FY 2004 to 6.25% of G.D.P. over 2005 MTEF.
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Employment and Labour Policy:
• Employment growth less than GDP growth. Public sector
employment has declined.
• Government targeting 1 million EPWP jobs but insufficient to
halve unemployment by 2014.
• 80 000 learners target of SETAs has been exceeded.
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ECONOMIC AND FISCAL POLICY
Fiscal and Financial Policy:
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National norms of 25% tax : GDP and international target of
3% deficit : GDP ratio established. Similar norms not set for
general government or public sector.
•
Improved national revenue raising capacity and constrained
spending enabled deficit to be reduced from 6 to 1% of GDP
by FY 2001. 3% government deficit projected over 2005 MTEF,
whilst PSBR rises to 4% of GDP.
• Since FY 2002, government investment has exceeded deficit
financing.
• Debt servicing costs have declined from 19% to 12.5% of
nationally raised revenue enabling real growth of funds
available for spending on CMBS.
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ECONOMIC AND FISCAL POLICY
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Monetary Policy:
Gradual development towards an inflation targeting regime. Since its
formal adoption in 2003, inflation has kept below 6% target.
Persistence in inflation targeting may reduce high real interest rates
which discourage fixed investment and encourage speculative
inflows. Exchange rate has been very volatile, though appears to be
stabilizing.
From 2005, Government is monitoring administered prices for
compliance with the inflation target.
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TRENDS IN THE DIVISION OF REVENUE
Vertical Division and Balance:
• Reprioritization of spending towards social assistance and
household infrastructure increased provincial and municipal
share of spending 7% and 10% respectively.
• The proportion of general government revenue raised by
national and provincial governments has fallen 4% and 3 %
respectively, whilst the municipal share has increased 7%.

National Fiscal Framework:
• Composition of nationally raised revenue shifting away from
PIT & VAT.
• National government spending shifting towards finance &
admin, I.J.S. Policy drive to increase infrastructure spending
has recently reversed declining capital spend trend.
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TRENDS IN THE DIVISION OF REVENUE
Provincial Fiscal Framework:
• Provincially collected revenue constitutes a very small
proportion of provincial budgets. Between FY 1994 and 2003, an
average and stable 85% of funding was derived from PES and
12% from conditional capital and capacity building grants. This
ratio shifts 2/3 to 1/3 with the conditionalizing of social
assistance grants from 2005 onwards.
• Provincial spending has shifted to social development (+10%)
and away from education (-6%), economic services (-3%) and
health (-1%). Capital spending has been growing faster than
average since FY 2001 and projected to continue over 2005
Medium-term. Maintenance spending declining.
• Provincial budget allocations and spending patterns have served
to reduce economic disparities between provinces.
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TRENDS IN THE DIVISION OF REVENUE
 Municipal Fiscal Framework:
• Over 85% of revenue is derived from own sources. Municipalities are
deriving a greater proportion of funds from intergovernmental grants.
Conditional grants are being reduced in favour of the LES.
• Rural municipalities derive between 60% and 90% of their budgets
from intergovernmental grants, whilst metropolitan authorities derive
between 3% and 8%.
• Operational spending rising faster than capital or maintenance spends.
• Municipal spending patterns neither reduce nor exacerbate economic
disparities between municipalities.
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PROVISION OF BASIC SOCIAL SERVICES
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Social Development:
Since the introduction of the Child Support grant, the take up rate has
averaged 18% p.a. Real spending has grown by 8% p.a. More
recently, HIV-AIDS providing incentive for rapid take-up of disability
and foster care grants.
Social assistance grant values rising somewhat faster than CPI.
Official income surveys have not isolated the impact of social
assistance spending on income poverty.
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PROVISION OF BASIC SOCIAL SERVICES
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Education:
Despite average growth of school-going age children of 1.74% p.a.
between 1996 and 2001, learner enrolment and spending declined,
possibly due to policies to reduce errors of inclusion.
Since then, learner enrolment has been rising by 1.27% p.a. Enrolment
targets have been set for all education programs. Real spending growth of
2.3% projected for 2004 MTEF.
Adult literacy improved 83% to 89% between 1996 and 2001 whilst
proportion of adults with post-secondary education increased 23% to
29%.
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PROVISION OF BASIC SOCIAL SERVICES
Health Care:
• Since 2001, real growth has increased to 4% p.a. but spending
on hospital services has lagged that of PHC provision in clinics.
• Municipalities have traditionally provided nearly half
government’s PHC services.
• Improvements in antenatal, TB care and immunization
coverage. Rising mortality rate related to the HIV-AIDS
epidemic.
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 Food Adequacy:
• The CNG targets 4.58 million poor scholars and is projected to
grow 4% in real terms over 2005 MTEF. Changes in nutritional
status not yet measured.
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PROVISION OF BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES
• The consolidation of Schedule 4 conditional grants have
provided incentives to increase spending on infrastructure.
 Housing:
• The delivery rate of housing has exceeded the rate of
household formation. On average, 161 400 houses have been
delivered p.a since FY 1994. A delivery target of 338 000 p.a.
has been set.
• Until FY 2001, the value of the housing subsidy declined in real
terms. Qualifying household income brackets have not been
adjusted for inflation.
• Municipalities reluctant to seek accreditation. This may be due
to increasing pressure to top-up the capital grant and take on
operational implications.
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PROVISION OF BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES
 Water:
• Full access to water targeted for 2008. Between 1996 and 2001,
coverage of households with reticulated water increased from
60% to 62% (but declined in the Metros). Census definitions
not consistent with norm of 50 l per person day within 200m of
dwelling.
• While Water Boards reduced their capital spend since FY 2001,
municipalities have increased theirs.
 Sanitation and Waste Disposal:
• Full access to sanitation targeted for 2010. Between 1996 and
2001, coverage of households with water-borne sewerage or
VIPs increased from 50% to 55% and receiving municipal refuse
removal services from 53% to 57%. Metros have struggled to
keep pace with demand.
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PROVISION OF BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES
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Electricity:
Government has targeted full household coverage by 2012.
Coverage improvements between 1996 and 2001 have been
most marked from 57% to 70% of households with access to
the grid.
REDs operational from 2005. Distribution of electricity
surpluses and implications for municipal billing systems being
addressed.
Transport:
Over half the capital and maintenance spending on roads is
undertaken by provinces and nearly 1/3 bby municipalities.
Since FY 2000, real spending on roads increased by 11% p.a.,
whilst that on bus, train and taxi subsidies increased by 6.5%
p.a.
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CONCLUSION AND WAY FORWARD
• Develop “costed norms” based budget analytic methodology to
further the object of DoRB of coordinating policy and budget
planning.
• Consideration can be given to process of norm and target
setting in relation to capacities.
• Indicators can be developed for data availability, stability,
institutional capacity, asset and accessibility poverty.
• Greater consideration could be given to DoRB budget
management procedures pertaining to disbursements,
adjustments, virements and reporting which stabilize
allocations while allowing flexibility in the event of
emergencies.
• IJS should also be evaluated as a CMBS.
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THANK YOU
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