Transcript 湘南グローバルセミナー
環境制約からみた 21世紀の科学文明と生活 国際連合大学・東京大学 安井 至 http://www.yasuienv.net で本資料を配布中です。 1 Ylab CREST Contents Introduction Transitions in Environment, Japanese Case Analysis for Transitions in Environment What is the Keyword? = Sustainability Definition of Sustainability How to Measure Development? Environmental Kuznets Curve CO2 Emission Energy Use EcoPremium A New Life Style Conclusions 2 Ylab CREST Definition of “Sustainability” Two Kinds of Definitions UN Brundtland Type Corporate Social Responsibility Type 3 Ylab CREST Brundtland Type Definition "Sustainable Development is Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It is not a fixed state of harmony, but rather a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development, and institutional change are made consistent with future as well as present needs." (Brundtland Report 1987) 4 Ylab CREST Green & Sustainability; Different Views Economic Aspects Social Aspects Fairness & Justice Resource Consumption Overcome Poverty Case for Japan Resource Factor Human Health Ecological Impact Human Equity Limitation of Earth Eco-System Factor 5 Ylab CREST Start Point Sustainability Triple Bottom Line Economic Aspects Social Aspects Environmental Aspects 6 Ylab CREST Transition of Society from Non Sustainable to Sustainable Economic Aspects Social Aspects Economic Aspects Social Aspects Environmental Aspects Environmental Aspects 7 Ylab CREST International Framework for Sustainable Development Goals and Targets 8 Ylab CREST Millennium Development Goals The Millennium Development Goals are an ambitious agenda for reducing poverty and improving lives that world leaders agreed on at the Millennium Summit in September 2000. For each goal one or more targets have been set, most for 2015, using 1990 as a benchmark: 9 Ylab CREST 8 Goals in MDG 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 2. Achieve universal primary education 3. Promote gender equality and empower women 4. Reduce child mortality 5. Improve maternal health 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases 7. Ensure environmental sustainability 8. Develop a global partnership for development 10 Ylab CREST 18 Targets and 48 Indicators Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources 25. Proportion of land area covered by forest 26. Land area protected to maintain biological diversity 27. GDP per unit of energy use (as proxy for energy efficiency) 28. Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) [Plus two figures of global atmospheric pollution: ozone depletion and the accumulation of global warming gases] 11 Ylab CREST How to Measure Development? Economical Development? Economy Related Other Indicators? GDP and Others Such as Energy Use per Capita Human Development? By UNDP 12 Ylab CREST Human Development "The basic purpose of development is to enlarge people's choices. In principle, these choices can be infinite and can change over time. People often value achievements that do not show up at all, or not immediately, in income or growth figures: greater access to knowledge, better nutrition and health services, more secure livelihoods, security against crime and physical violence, satisfying leisure hours, political and cultural freedoms and sense of participation in community activities. The objective of development is to create an enabling environment for people to enjoy long, healthy and creative lives." Mahbub ul Haq 13 Ylab CREST How Can We Measure HD? What is the human development index (HDI) developed by UNDP? The HDI – human development index – is a summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: longevity, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. Longevity is measured by life expectancy at birth; knowledge is measured by a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; and standard of living by GDP per capita (PPP US$). 14 Ylab CREST WSSD Plan of Implementation in Johannesburg 2002 Poverty eradication Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption and production Protection and managing the natural resource base of economic and social development Sustainable development in a globalizing world Health and sustainable development 15 Ylab CREST Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption and production All countries should promote sustainable consumption and production patterns, with the developed countries taking the lead…… Encourage and promote the development of a 10 -year framework of programmes……. Develop production and consumption policies to improve the products and services provided, while reducing environmental and health impacts, using, where appropriate, sciencebased approaches, such as life-cycle analysis….. 16 Ylab CREST Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption and production Enhance corporate environmental and social responsibility and accountability……. Prevent and minimize waste and maximize reuse, recycling and use of environmentally friendly alternative materials……. Promote an integrated approach to policy -making at the national, regional and local levels for transport services and systems…Eco-friendly Cars… Sound management of chemicals throughout their life cycle and of hazardous wastes…….. 17 Ylab CREST Transitions in Environment Japanese Case 18 Ylab CREST Minamata Disease Minamata disease is the name given to mercury toxicosis (poisoning) that developed in people who ate contaminated seafood taken from Minamata Bay and adjacent coastal waters. Methyl mercury was dumped into the sea as an unwanted by-product of acetaldehyde processing at the Chisso Company Limited industrial plant in Minamata from 1931 to 1966. As of 31 March 1993, the official government tally of confirmed victims was 2,255 (both living and dead) with 2,376 others who are still seeking to be classified as victims. The number of persons refused certification has climbed to 12,503. The actual total of victims is undoubtedly larger than the official figures because an unknown number of people died from the disease without certification or chose not to apply for certification. 19 Ylab CREST Minamata on the Mend The Ministry of Environment finally declared Minamata Bay safe in 1997, after a ¥48.5 billion ($394 million)-effort to dredge or contain in landfill the mercury accumulated at the bottom of the bay (1983). Now, drawing on its experience of suffering and recovery, Minamata is spreading a message to developing countries, particularly in Asia, not to repeat Japan's mistake. 20 Ylab CREST Dioxin & POPs Environmental Problems and Time Constants in Japan Air Pollution EDC Problem Depletion of Ozone Layer Water & Sea Pollution Soil & Sediment Pollution Resource & Energy Consumption Global Warming 1970 2000 2050 21 Ylab CREST Air Pollution NOx concentration 1970 1980 1990 2000 22 Ylab CREST Pb % of Points for Measurement where concentration exceeded the environmental standard limits CN Cd As PCB Cr 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 23 Ylab CREST Years of Life Lost by Daily Risks by WHO 24 Ylab CREST Infant Mortality Rates and Foetal Death Rates in Japan/Tokyo from 1899 to 1998 200/1000 3/1000 25 Ylab CREST Risk Ranking for Chemicals in Loss of Life (days) 単位：日 Smoking all Smoking Lung Cancer Passive Smoking Diesel SPM Passive Smoking LC Radon Formaldehyde Dioxin Cadmium Arsenic Toluene 26 Ylab CREST Emission of Dioxin and Related Chemicals to Environmet 27 Ylab CREST Change of Dioxin Conc. in Mother Milk 28 Ylab CREST Transition of Life Expectancy at Birth in Japan Women Men 29 Ylab CREST GDP vs. Life Expectancy 30 Ylab CREST GDP vs. Life Expectancy 31 Ylab CREST 32 Ylab CREST Analysis for Transitions in Environment Environmental Kuznets Curves SOx is a typical environmental pollutant to fit the Kuznets Curve. 33 Ylab CREST GDP per capita ｖｓ． SOx Concentration Environmental Kuznets Curve after Prof. SIMON KUZNETS 34 Ylab CREST Then how about other emissions and use of resources ? (1) Energy Use (2) CO2 (3) Waste and Material Use 35 Ylab CREST 36 Ylab CREST Costa Rica 37 Ylab CREST Costa Rica 38 Ylab CREST Japanese Target Costa Rica 39 Ylab CREST A Scenario for Oil Production 40 Ylab CREST Newly Found and Production of Oil 41 Ylab CREST Long Term Trend of Oil Consumption 42 Ylab CREST Then how about other emissions and use of resources ? (1) Energy Use (2) CO2 (3) Waste and Material Use 43 Ylab CREST Scenario by IPCC. B1 is the Target? Emission B1 44 Ylab CREST Increase in Temperature B1 45 Ylab CREST Total CO2 Emission(Global) Now JAPAN 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 46 Ylab CREST A Trend Model for Environment Load in Japan Japanese Model Now Value Environment Load Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission Target 1970 Pollution, General Economical Scale, such as GDP 47 Ylab CREST 各種のプレミアム Premium ブランドプレミアム Brand Premium 超小型プレミアム Ultra Small-size Premium 寿命が長く、修理が利くために価値が高い 手作りプレミアム Hand-made Premium 使い心地に気を配って価値が高い 長寿命プレミアム Long-Life Premium 超小型にすることで価値が高い 使いここちプレミアム Comfortable Premium 同じような製品でもメーカーが違うため価値が高い 手作りのために価値が高い エコプレミアム Eco-Premium 製品の環境負荷が低いために価値が高い 48 Ylab CREST エコプレミアムEco-Premium 資源・エネルギー生産性の高い商品 Resource Productivity, Energy Productivity 環境汚染は良好にマネージメント 複数プレミアムの組み合わせが必要か 例えば、 ブランドプレミアム＝手工業的プレミアム 長寿命プレミアム＝寿命の長さで高い価値を エコプレミアム＝環境負荷の低さで価値を 49 Ylab CREST 結局のところは、５０年間で In less than 50 years, we must fulfill the goal, ＜エネルギー生産性の向上＞ エネルギー生産性４倍＝技術的効率（２倍）×需要変化（２倍） Energy Productivity x4 = Technology (x2) x Life Style(x2) ＜資源生産性の向上＞ 資源生産性 ８倍＝ ２倍 × ２倍 × ２倍 機能長寿命化 需要変化 循環利用 Resource Productivity x8 = Long Life (x2) x Life Style(x2) x Recycle Tech.etc., (x2) 50 Ylab CREST An Example = New Prius Hybrid Motor Vehicle by TOYOTA Engine Power Splitter Generator Ni-H Battery Inverter Motor Transmission for Hybrid 51 Ylab CREST Comparison of CO2 Emission New Prius and Equivalent New Prius Materials Assemble Gasoline Maintenance Waste Gasoline 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 tons Assumptions: 100,000km Driven in Tokyo Fuel Consumption: 18km/L for Prius, 8km/L for Others 52 Ylab CREST Energy Efficiency of New Prius Fuel E Car E Overall EE in % Gasoline Prius 1 Prius 1MC New Prius FCHV Now FCHV F 53 Ylab CREST 水素は普及しない？ Hydrogen Energy : Doubtful 理由 水素は一次エネルギーではない。Not Primary Energy 二次エネルギーは運搬・貯蔵などの手段。Media to Store. 手段の性能としては、液体燃料に負ける。 Liquid Fuel. 液体水素でも、ガソリンより水素分子数が少ない 液体燃料のインフラ構築に比較すると、気体のインフラの構 築はコストが非常にかかる。 Infra Structure for H2. もしも水素に技術的優位性があれば、コストを除外しても進 める可能性はあるが。 No Technological Merit. 環境面の優位性も無さそう。 No Environmental Merit. 結論：水素はアイスランドのみ！ 54 Ylab CREST エコキュートの環境効率 Eco-Kyuto: Hot Water Apparatus 二酸化炭素冷媒を使ったヒートポンプ型給湯機 Heat Pump Type 55 Ylab CREST 洗 濯 乾 燥 機 の 二 酸 化 炭 素 排 出 量 Washer Dryer ＣＯ２ Emission ｋｇ／ｋｇ Cloths 具体例 洗濯乾燥機 Water:Wash Water:Dry Electricity:Wash Electricity:Dry 56 Ylab CREST すべての電気製品には情報を Environmental Information by House Hold Appriances Cloth Weight 洗濯量は２．５ｋｇでした。 本日の二酸化炭素排出量は 洗濯時に２２ｇ＝水で１２ｇ＋電気で１０ｇ 乾燥時に５００ｇ＝水で３０ｇ＋電気で４７０ｇ Today’s CO2 Emission Wash:22g = Water:12g + Electricity: 10g Dry: 500g = Water:30g + Electricity: 470g 57 Ylab CREST エコプレミアム情報の交換 Exchange of Information by Eco-Premium Products Sustainability 持 続 可 能 性 商品 商品 商品 Products Information 情報 満足 Satisfaction 消費者 消費者 消費者 消費者 Consumers 58 Ylab CREST 着陸地点を決めた議論を！ We have to make discussion with future perspectives In the year of 2050 59 Ylab CREST 企業と市民の責任の分担 Sharing Responsibility by Citizens and Corporations to Change Society 企業(Corporation)： 十分な環境情報を持つ。 Enough Environmental Information 市民社会をリードする役割。 Responsibility to Lead the Society 余りにも先進的だとリスクあり。 Too Advanced, then some Risks 市民(Citizen)：環境情報はメディア経由で不十分。 Not Enough and Distorted Information そのために迷走する。 Sometimes take Waving Courses 60 Ylab CREST 企業の環境戦略 半歩前 Best Strategy for Corporation = Walk half step ahead FINAL GOAL 一般社会の動き Citizens Society 優れた環境対応企業 Advanced Corporations in Environmental Management 環境対応の遅れた企業 Backward Corporations in Environmental Management61 結論 Conclusions Ylab CREST ２１世紀は、地球の限界と人間活動があきらかな交点を もち始める世紀である。 Competition between Limitation of the Earth and Scale of Human Activities いかなる人も、この事実から逃れられない。 Nobody can escape from this condition. 地球に限界があることを認め、それに対処することは、知 識人にとって必須の条件である。 Accept this condition and consider the next action is a duty for intellectual persons. それは未来を読むことは、人のみに許されたことだから。 Only human beings can have future perspectives. 62