Transcript Climate policies and the « Asian Giants » Insights from the

Climate policies and the « Asian Giants »
Insights from the Imaclim-R model
Jean-Charles Hourcade, Renaud Crassous, Olivier Sassi,
Frederic Ghersi, Sandrine Mathy, Vincent Gitz, Henri Weitzman
The «Asian Giants » exercise: a specific order
• A report by the Research Department of the World Bank for the
WB annual conference at Singapore
• Topic: the impact of the Emerging Asian Giants (China, India) on
the World Economy (2005-2050),
• Chapter on energy and climate written by Zmarak Shalizi (senior
economist, Economic Research Department)
• Energy scenarios provided by Prof. Shukla for India and Dr.
Keijung for China
• Energy-economy baseline and policy scenarios run by Imaclim,
integrating Chinese and India BU information and in accordance
with the WB’s choices
‘Negotiated’ growth baselines L&H, w/o & with frictions
Real GDP - China
Real GDP - India
10000000
billions of dollars (US2001)
billions of dollars (US2001)
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Low Growth
High Growth
Low Growth
High Growth
Low Growth + energy frictions
High Growth + energy frictions
Low Growth + energy frictions
High Growth + energy frictions
Beyond the regular growth curves: when
singularities occur may be critical
Real GDP losses - China
Real GDP losses - India
1.0%
2010
2020
2030
2040
0%
2000
-2%
2050
% of real GDP
% of real GDP
0.0%
2000
2%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2010
2020
2030
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-4.0%
-16%
Low Growth + energy frictions
High Growth + energy frictions
Low Growth + energy frictions
High Growth + energy frictions
2040
2050
Net GDP variations due to the ALT-LG scenario in India
Real GDP losses w.r.t. CS scenario - India
3.00%
2.00%
% of real GDP
1.00%
0.00%
2000
-1.00%
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-2.00%
-3.00%
-4.00%
Supply Policies
Demand Policies
Supply & Demand policies
Rhetorical usefulness of overly
politically correct assumptions?
Real GDP losses w.r.t. High Growth scenario - India
Real GDP losses w.r.t. High Growth scenario - China
3.00%
12.00%
2.00%
10.00%
8.00%
0.00%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-1.00%
% of real GDP
% of real GDP
1.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
2000
-2.00%
-2.00%
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-3.00%
-4.00%
-4.00%
HG + SUPPLY + DEMAND
HG + SUPPLY
HG + DEMAND
HG + SUPPLY + DEMAND
HG + SUPPLY
HG + DEMAND
How policy costs are dependant
upon overall economic strategies
Real GDP losses w.r.t. baseline scenario - China
0.5%
% of real GDP
0.0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
New international economic
strategy
Unchanged international
economic strategy
-2.0%
What “robust” policy insights?
1. The climate development Gordian Knot can be untied because
climate policies contribute to slacken the energy tensions
impinging upon the Asian Giants (including oil shocks)
2. Transition costs matter they are due to additional capital
costs and to the recessive effect of higher energy prices
(under coeteris paribus clausa)
3. ‘some’ international cooperation is needed, now but may be
inhibited by an unappropriate timing due to the very
emergence of the new Giants;
4. International economic strategies matter (monetary policy,
level and structure of the ‘extraversion <-> wage policy): this
offers a margin of freedom for negotiating future climate regime