Transcript Output and supply

Inflation Report
November 2009
Output and supply
Chart 3.1 Contributions to quarterly GDP growth(a)
(a) Chained-volume measures. The GDP series is at market prices. Services and manufacturing are at basic prices. ‘Other’ is calculated as a residual. The figures in parentheses show shares in
the level of nominal value added in 2007. Shares do not sum to 100 due to rounding. The chart shows data consistent with the Q3 preliminary GDP release. Index of production data were
subsequently revised.
(b) Includes agriculture, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water supply, and construction.
Chart 3.2 GDP and sectoral output(a)
(a) Chained-volume measures. GDP is at market prices. Indices of sectoral output are at basic prices.
Chart 3.3 Sectoral contributions to the percentage change in
GDP during recessions(a)
(a) Recessions are defined as two consecutive quarters of falling output (at constant market prices) estimated using the latest data. The recessions are assumed to end once output began to rise.
Contributions are based on sectoral indices at basic prices and are calculated using sectoral shares in the level of nominal value added in 1979, 1990 and 2005, and are approximations for the
1980s and 1990s recessions.
Chart 3.4 Domestic invoice discounting(a)
Source: Asset Based Finance Association.
(a) Domestic invoice discounting data are based on client sales figures and are non seasonally adjusted.
Chart 3.5 Surveys of employment intentions and LFS
employment
Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC, Manpower and ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).
(a) Measures included are based on employment intentions balances from the Bank’s regional Agents (manufacturing and services), the BCC (manufacturing and services) and the CBI
(manufacturing, financial services, business/consumer services) weighted by shares in employment. Manpower data are also included and cover the whole economy. The BCC data are non
seasonally adjusted.
(b) The diamond is an estimate for 2009 Q3 based on employment data for the three months to August.
Chart 3.6 GDP and employment
Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).
(a) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.3.
(b) Chained-volume measure at market prices.
(c) The diamond is an estimate for 2009 Q3 based on employment data for the three months to August.
Chart 3.7 Real hourly product wages and labour productivity per
hour
Sources: ONS and Bank calculations.
(a) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.3.
(b) Total compensation per hour worked divided by the gross value added deflator at factor cost. Data are to 2009 Q2.
(c) Gross value added at constant prices divided by total hours worked. Data are to 2009 Q2.
Chart 3.8 Labour share of income
(a) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.3.
(b) The labour share is based on whole-economy compensation of employees divided by nominal gross value added at factor cost. Data are to 2009 Q2.
Chart 3.9 Company liquidations in England and Wales
Sources: The Insolvency Service and ONS.
(a) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.3.
(b) Data are to 2009 Q2. Changes to legislation, data sources and methods of compilation mean the statistics should not be treated as a continuous and consistent time series. Since the Enterprise
Act 2002, a number of administrations have subsequently converted to creditors’ voluntary liquidations. These liquidations are excluded from the headline figures published by The Insolvency
Service and are excluded from the chart.
Chart 3.10 Unemployment rate
Source: Labour Force Survey.
(a) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.3.
(b) Percentage of the economically active population. Rolling three-month measure.
Chart 3.11 Participation rates
Source: Labour Force Survey.
(a) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.3.
(b) Percentage of the 16+ population. Rolling three-month measure.
(c) The observations before 1992 are based on non seasonally adjusted, annual LFS microdata. The annual observations correspond to the March-May quarter.
Chart 3.12 Change in unemployment by duration since
December 2007(a)
Source: Labour Force Survey.
(a) Rolling three-month measure.
Chart 3.13 Air passenger flows between the United Kingdom and
A8 countries(a)
Sources: Civil Aviation Authority — Airport Statistics and Bank calculations.
(a) These figures are calculated from Civil Aviation Authority data on flights between the United Kingdom and A8 airports. Flights between UK airports and those in A8 countries have been identified
by Bank staff, and those routes that have at some point transported at least 1,000 passengers in a single quarter are included in the calculation. Net flows have been calculated as the number
of passengers arriving in the United Kingdom each quarter less those leaving. These net flows have been seasonally adjusted by Bank staff. The A8 countries are the Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
Chart 3.14 Indicators of capacity utilisation and four-quarter
output growth
Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC and ONS.
(a) Three measures are produced by weighting together surveys from the Bank’s regional Agents (manufacturing and services), the BCC (manufacturing and services) and the CBI (manufacturing,
financial services, business/consumer services, distributive trades) using nominal shares in value added. The BCC data are non seasonally adjusted.
(b) Chained-volume measure at market prices.
Table 3.A Survey indicators of output growth(a)
Averages
since 1997
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct.
22
13
0
9
14
55.0
-23
-65
-34
-55
-47
43.7
-16
-43
-53
-19
-28
50.7
-1
6
-13
-18
7
54.2
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
-1
n.a.
56.9
8
-5
52.0
-55
-53
37.4
-37
-31
48.3
-10
-8
53.7
n.a.
n.a.
57.0
Services
BCC(b)
CBI business and professional services(c)
CBI consumer services(c)
CBI distributive trades(d)
CBI/PwC financial services(c)
CIPS/Markit(e)
Manufacturing
BCC(b)
CBI(c)
CIPS/Markit(e)
Sources: BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC and CIPS/Markit.
(a) Dates refer to the period in which the survey was conducted.
(b) Percentage balance of respondents reporting domestic sales to be ‘up’ relative to ‘down’ over the past three months. The data are non seasonally adjusted.
(c) Percentage balance of respondents reporting the volume of output/business to be ‘up’ relative to ‘down’ over the past three months. The CBI business and professional, and consumer
services averages are since 1998 Q4.
(d) Percentage balance of respondents reporting the volume of sales to be ‘up’ relative to ‘down’ over the past month compared with same period a year earlier.
(e) A reading above 50 indicates increasing business activity/output this month relative to the situation one month ago. Quarterly data are averages of monthly indices.
Table 3.B Indicators of labour market pressure
Averages
Vacancies/unemployed ratio(a)
2009
since 1998
Q1
Q2
Q3
0.38
0.21
0.18
0.18
1.0
61
24
7
-3.5
52
5
1
-3.7
48
3
1
-3.8
52
8
0
Recruitment difficulties
Agents’ scores(b)
BCC(c)
CBI skilled staff(d)
CBI unskilled staff(d)
Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC, ONS (including Labour Force Survey) and Bank calculations.
(a) Number of vacancies divided by LFS unemployment. Vacancies exclude agriculture, forestry and fishing. The figure for 2009 Q3 is an estimate based on data in the three months to August.
Average is since June 2001.
(b) Recruitment difficulties in the most recent three months compared with the situation a year earlier. End-quarter observations.
(c) Non seasonally adjusted. Manufacturing and services balances weighted by shares in employment.
(d) Averages since 1998 Q4. Balances of respondents expecting skilled and unskilled labour to limit output/business over the next three months (in the manufacturing sector) or over the next twelve
months (in the financial, business, professional and consumer service sectors), weighted by shares in employment.