Transcript G. Barbieri, A. Cruciani, F.Gambarotto

Functional Regions:
Local Labour Market
Areas in Italy
Giovanni Barbieri, Sandro Cruciani, Francesca Gambarotto
NESIS Seminar
June 26th, 2003
Aim of the Exercise
 To map out local development
 In Italy
 Using a very detailed territorial grid
 Over 25 years

(from the 1971 census to the 1996
intermediate census and beyond)
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Relevance of the Exercise
 To explore new regional classification
systems
 To test it in the analysis of sub-national socioeconomic structures
 To spot trends based on past evolution
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1. Territorial Grid
 Local Labour Market Areas (LLMAs)
Based on information on commuting between
house and workplace across municipalities
 Istat (1997). I sistemi locali del lavoro. Argomenti
no. 10. Roma.
 Features:
 Geographical: The grid of LLMAs covers the whole
territory of Italy, with no residuals
 Statistical: Transparent, internationally
acknowledged method
 Economic: LLMAs from an economic standpoint
approximate self-contained labour markets

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The 1991 Grid
 The latest available territorial grid is used (based on
the results of the 1991 population census)
 LLMAs are 784
 Kept constant over the whole 1971-1996 period.
Three reasons for this choice:



Interest in dynamics
The territorial grid itself is affected by growth processes
Possible under-estimation of agglomeration
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LLMAs
(1991)
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2. Clustering LLMAs
 Based on sectoral characteristics in the more recent
available industrial census (1996). Namely:




The variable considered is employment in local units
(establishments)
Industries are broken down in 51 classes
The breakdown of manufacturing is more detailed
The variable for each LLMA is obtained by aggregation
of municipal data
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Clusters
LLMAs
Non-specialized
Non-manufacturing
Urban
Mining
Tourism
Manufacturing
Light
Other
Made in Italy
Building materials
Textiles
Vehicles
Leather
Appliances
Eyewear
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Nonspecialized
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Non-manufacturing
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Light manufacturing
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Other manufacturing
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Main Features of Clusters
CLUSTERS
Non-specialized
Non-manufacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
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LLMAs
Number
311
113
266
94
784
%
39.7
14.4
33.9
12.0
100.0
Functional regions in Italy
Population
Million
%
12.9
22.4
18.7
32.5
17.6
30.6
8.3
14.5
57.5
100.0
13
3. Classifying LLMAs according
to employment rates
 Ratio of this choice:
 in the absence of information on value added
produced in LLMAs, employment rate an
indicator of their performance
 In fact:
GDP
GDP
Employment WorkingAgePop



Population Employment WorkingAgePop
Population
 Value added at the LLMA level (1996-2000)
has been recently published by Istat (June
17, 2003)
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Per capita
Value added
(2000)
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4. Employment Rate Dynamics
1971-1996
 A way to introduce the concept of “successful” and
“unsuccessful” LLMAs
 From a technical point of view, this is done by
considering the transition matrix comparing
employment rates in 1971 and 1996
 For a similar approach, see: OECD, Territorial
Review of Italy, 2001
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1971
Employment Rate Dynamics
by Macro-Region
Above the
average
Below the
average
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1991
Below the average
Above the average
North-Centre
2 North-Centre
295
Mezzogiorno
135 Mezzogiorno
6
Italia
137 Italia
301
North-Centre
41 North-Centre
81
Mezzogiorno
213 Mezzogiorno
11
Italia
254 Italia
92
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The Derived Tassonomy
1971
1991
Below average
Above average
Above average
REGRESS
LEADING
Below average
LAGGING
PROGRESS
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LLMAs
Performance
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The Data-Base
 Censuses 1971 through 1991, with updates
to 1996 where possible
 5 main areas:





Socio-demographic features
Dwellings
Employment and labour market
Economy and labour market
Economy and production
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Socio-Demographic Features
 Population density
 Masculinity rate
 Dependence rate
 Turnover of working population
 Average dimension of households
 Education rates
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Dwellings






Share of occupied dwellings
Rooms per dweller
Average number of rooms
Ownership
Time of construction
Services



Water
WC and bathroom
Central heating
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Economy and Labour Market
 Employed persons in local units, in total and
by 8 sectors of activity
 Average size of local units
 Localization quotients
 Specialization indexes
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Economy and Production
 Activity rate (total and by sex)
 Employment rate (total and by sex)
 Share of employed persons by sector of
activity
 Share of employed persons by kind of
occupation (employee/self-employed)
 Entrepreneuriality rate
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The Results:
A Few Examples
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
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Lagging Regress Progress
168
82
18
46
6
21
16
44
41
24
5
12
254
137
92
Leading Total
43
311
40
113
165
266
53
94
301
784
Lagging Regress Progress
1,67
1,51
0,49
1,26
0,30
1,58
0,19
0,95
1,31
0,79
0,30
1,09
1,00
1,00
1,00
Leading Total
0,36 1,00
0,92 1,00
1,62 1,00
1,47 1,00
1,00 1,00
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Population
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
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Lagging
7506
11376
1558
2096
22536
Regress Progress
2166
1257
582
1822
1153
1927
310
377
4211
5383
Leading
1922
4923
12950
5537
25331
Lagging
1,49
1,55
0,23
0,64
1,00
Regress Progress
2,30
1,04
0,42
1,04
0,89
1,17
0,51
0,48
1,00
1,00
Leading Total
0,34 1,00
0,60 1,00
1,67 1,00
1,51 1,00
1,00 1,00
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Total
12851
18703
17588
8319
57461
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Density
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
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Lagging
119
454
221
162
209
Regress Progress
110
164
254
259
125
117
144
60
126
144
Leading Total
102
118
305
370
220
192
193
167
207
191
Lagging
0,93
1,12
1,05
0,89
1,00
Regress Progress
1,41
1,85
1,04
0,93
0,98
0,81
1,31
0,48
1,00
1,00
Leading Total
0,80 1,00
0,76 1,00
1,06 1,00
1,07 1,00
1,00 1,00
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Dependence Rate
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
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Lagging
51
46
48
49
48
Regress Progress
52
48
47
46
53
50
51
55
52
49
Leading Total
48
50
44
46
46
47
47
48
46
47
Lagging
0,99
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
Regress Progress
0,96
0,94
0,94
0,99
1,04
1,03
0,97
1,11
1,00
1,00
Leading Total
0,99 1,00
0,99 1,00
1,01 1,00
1,02 1,00
1,00 1,00
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Education Rate (1991)
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
Clusters
Non specialized
Non-manifacturing
Light manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Italy
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Lagging
24
34
22
27
29
Regress Progress
22
30
23
29
20
26
22
24
21
28
Leading Total
26
24
34
33
25
24
28
27
27
28
Lagging
0,92
0,97
0,87
0,93
1,00
Regress Progress
1,15
1,21
0,88
0,87
1,07
1,07
1,04
0,89
1,00
1,00
Leading Total
1,08 1,00
1,04 1,00
1,02 1,00
1,04 1,00
1,00 1,00
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And so on…
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Preliminary results
 Urban LLMAs seem to be the more
successful

Density is destiny
 Diversity seems to be a key to success

Overspecialisation not an advantage in the
long run
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Next Steps
 Profiling successful and unsuccessful LLMAs
 Discriminant analysis
 How were characterized in 1971 the dynamic
LLMAs?
 Which problems face the various types of
clusters?
 Are there policy lessons to learn?
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