Transcript Estimating Market Demand Historical Data Local Production Plus

Today
• Project update
• Market demand forecasting
• Segmentation
• Case studies
Market Forecasting
• Demand / size of market/
consumption/ market forecast..
How big is the market demand ?
• NOT demand for your brand
Estimating Market Demand
Historical Data
8-10
Local Production Plus Imports
Expert Opinion
Analogy
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Market Forecast
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Data & judgement
Ultimately try to quantify
Current size & forecast
Per capita consumption best basis
Volume= per capita x population
Market value = volume x average price
Usually market forecast is in volume
Market Forecast- historical data
• Last 5 years, on average 100k new cars
bought in Austria p.a
• UK consumers eat 15 kg of chicken p.a.
• US consumers bought 900k espresso
machines in 2002
Market forecast- analogy
• Demand is proportional to some factor (eg. GDP
for consumer durables)
• Demand for office air conditioning follows
development of fax machines
• US and Japan GDP / capita same but car
penetration 800 / 1000 households in US versus
550 in Japan.. Why ?
• Careful of using single factors in forecast
Market forecast- analogy
• US and Japan GDP / capita same
but car penetration 800 / 1000
households in US versus 550 in
Japan.. Why ?
• Careful of using single factors in
forecast
Factors influencing Market
demand
• Income ( GDP )
• Relative price .. Price of category versus
prices in substitute cagegory
• Advertising expenditure in this market ( total
compared to other categories)
• Culture
• Availability ( distribution)
• Other eg. climate
Market Forecast –Soft drinks
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Income
Price
Relative price v. other beverages
Availability
Climate
Advertising expenditure in total market
Cultural factors ( water, wine , beer !)
Market Forecasting
• Ready to eat breakfast cereals in
China
• Frozen vegetables in Brasil
• Cider in Austria
Market attractiveness model
Market
outlook
Competitive
intensity outlook
Segment profitability
Attractiveness
Company
capability
Market segmentation- why ?
• Companies divide large heterogeneous markets into
smaller segments that can be reached more efficiently with
products & services that match consumers needs.
• Consumers have different needs, perceptions, behavioursuppliers should seek to meet these to deliver improved
consumer satisfaction
• Companies can develop & manage the marketing mix more
efficiently
• Commodities not segmented, all other markets can be
segmented!
Demographic
BASES FOR
Behaviouristic
SEGMENTING
MARKETS
Geographic
Psychographic
Market segmentation
• Geographic segmentation.
– Very common method
– Based upon language / cultural/climate
– Eg. Foods, air conditioning, magazines
– Urban / rural markets
• Companies very often organised on national
bases
Market segmentation- Demographic
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Age- toys,vitamins, comics
Life cycle-18-30, Saga,cruises,
Gender- clothes, cosmetics, magazines
Income- luxury brands, economy brands
Social class- Butlins, Center Parcs
Occupation- business magazines
Market segmentation- Psychographic
• Lifestyle eg Y&R
• Personality eg Honda scooters aimed at
young at heart
• Hobbies- golfing , scateboarding, gliding,
chess
• Nestle – energetic males & depressive
chocolate lovers
Mindset types as a basis for consumer segmentation-Nokia
GEODEMOGRAPHICS
A combination of geographic, demographic and
lifestyle information that identifies target market
locations by several behavioural similarities
Market segmentation-behaviorial
• Divides market into groups based upon their knowledge,
attitudes or responses to a product
• Occasions- when buying or using
• FJ promoted outside breakfast usage
• Mothers Day for cards , flowers
• Benefit- find the benefits that consumers are looking for
eg.toothpaste
• Usage rate- heavy , light buyers eg beer, frequent flyers
Segmentation- Segments V Niche
• Segment bigger
• Segments have several competitors
• SUV is a segment; Land Rover, Suzuki,
Shogun all other products in this segment
Segmentation- TCCC
• Mass- Coca- Cola
• Product variety- Fanta, Sprite
• Target marketing
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Diet Coke
Cherry Coke
Caffeine free
Lemon coke
Glass / PET / Dispensed/Cans
Manner brands / product categories
Brand
Manner
Napoli
Casali
Casali
Victor Schmidt
Heller
Category
Wafers
Dragees
Rum Kokos
Schoko Bananen
Mozartkugel
Pralines