Transcript TRAINING WORKSHOP ON NATURAL DISASTER EVALUATION

UN ECLAC’s
methodology on
disaster impact
assessment
An area of inter-regional cooperation
that has sparked interested in
countries, regional and international
institutions.
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ECLAC’s substantive actions
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Update the methodology for socioeconomic and environmental
damage assessment, publishing an expanded handbook that includes
new cross-cutting analyses such as environmental impact and the
gender perspective.
Extend the analytical capacity to prospective analysis and the
cumulative implications of disasters on growth path and
development.
Use mathematical and econometric models, develop scenarios on the
projected impact of damage
Keep a proactive advocacy for disaster reduction and mitigation,
focusing on decision makers in the economic and financial sectors as
well as the private sector
Maintain technical assistance to governments both
• in terms of damage appraisal after disasters, when required, and
• training in the use of the methodology
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Maintain and encourage interagency, inter-institutional,
multidisciplinary and inter-regional cooperation and joint actions with
relevant organizations both within the United Nations system and at
the regional and subregional level
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Basic premise and ECLAC’s vision and mission:
Economic valuation reduces vulnerability
The vision
•
Development is a systemic process,
integrated and global, based on some
structural pillars:
1. Competitiveness (in a globalized
environment)
• Equitable (in terms of opportunities
and access as a means to reduce
poverty)
• Governance (in terms of addressing
economic, social and political
exclusions)
• Sustainable and sound (in terms of
global change, environmental
responsible management,
preserving inter-temporal
equilibriums and a smooth growth
path)
• Resilience (in terms of addressing
vulnerabilities both to external
shocks, natural events and
increasing the community’s
(stakeholders) response)
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The Mission
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Follow-up and analyze
economic, social and
environmental as well as
political development
processes in the LAC region
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Provide assistance to
governments in formulating
development policies
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Contribute to the debate on
development processes and
models in the region
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Promote exchange of
experiences (lessons
learned, good practices,
etc.) by comparative and
monographic studies
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Promote dialogue within the
region and with other
development countries on
development issues
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General considerations
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Formalize the systemic nature of the concepts
of risk, vulnerability and mitigation
Given the recurrence of disasters promote
proactive policies that establish the difference
between disaster and risk management.
Promote the use of disaster valuation as a
tool for reconstruction, mitigation and the use
of planning as a cross-cutting tool for a more
resilient development process.
Given the usefulness of historical records
both in terms of probability of recurrence and
damages incurred and expected, promote
studies to expand these.
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Sensibility
Response
Capability
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Probability of
occurrence
Type
Magnitude
Intensity
Speed and velocity
Persistence
Recurrence
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Vicious circle: Man, Environment,
Disasters
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Human actions
progressively
deteriorate the
environment
Natural phenomena
affect the
environment
(positively /
negatively)
Impact of disasters
tends to increase
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NATURAL
PHENOMENA
HUMAN
ACTIONS
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ENVIRONMENT
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Or the link between disasters, poverty and
development
RESOURCE
Policy
strategies
DISASTER RISK
MANAGEMENT
Risk
Assessment
Poverty
reduction
Millennium Development Goals
Economic
assessment
IMF commitments
Macroeconomic equilibria
MOBILIZATION
National planning
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The images we
see
The figures we
determine
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The importance of scientific
research and information
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Have reliable information
on the type of event
Build prediction scenarios
Know the evolution of
successive, cumulative
events
Allow early warning,
prevention, mitigation and
reduction
Make information available
and understandable by
affected or exposed
population
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TYPE OF HAZARDS IN DEVELOPING LATIN AMERICA:
VOLCANIC ,
SISMIC
STORMS AND HURRICANES
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The importance of economic
assessment of damage and needs
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Have a record on damage
caused by past events
Establish link between level of
damage and magnitude or
strength of a certain category
of event
Value losses to quantify needs
for rehabilitation and
reconstruction
Put in evidence the benefits of
mitigation and reduction
Make information available to
potentially affected or exposed
communities (stakeholders)
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Dynamic global effects
Macroeconomic effects
 Repercussions on the economic
performance of national or regional
economy affected by the disaster
 May persist for a number of years after
the disaster, depending on the
characeristics and magnitude
 Is reflected in
•
•
•
•
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Gross Domestic Product growth
Performance of the external sector
Evolution of public finance
Increases of prices and inflation
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Relative importance of magnitude
Total damage as % of GDP
Hurricane Mitch, Central
America
15
13.2
10
1.4
5
3.3
3.6
El Niño, Andean region,
1997/1998
0.4 Venezuela Floods, 1999,
Mexico City Earthquake, 1985
Hurricane Andrew
0
Daño total versus PIB
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Eastern Caribbean: GDP at factor costs
4
3.8
3.5
Annual Percentage Change
3
3.1
3
2.7
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.7
0.5
0
1994
Source: Statistical Offices, OECS
and ECCB
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1995
1996
Year
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1997
1998
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GDP GROWTH RATE
7
6
5
4
%
3
2
1
0
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-2
-3
Before the disaster
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After the disaster
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EL SALVADOR: POSSIBLE
RECONSTRUCTION SCENARIOS,
2001-2003
6.0
5.0
5.0
GDP growth rates
4.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.0
2.0
4.0
3.0
scenario
2.0
probable
1.0
scenario
0.0
1999
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2000
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2002
2003
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Some figures on the impact of
disasters in Latin America and the
Caribbean
Deaths (1972-2003)
Directly affected population (primary) (thousands)
Total affected population (‘000)
Total Damage (millions of dollars)
110,000
0.02% a/
15,000
2.68% a/
160,000
28.57% a/
65,000
Yearly average amount (millions of dollars)
2,300
As percentage of exports of goods and services
0.55%
As percentage of foreign direct investment
7.92%
Source: ECLAC
a/ as percentage of total
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Impact of major recent
disasters
PERIOD
TOTAL DAMAGE (millions of dollars de 2000)
TOTAL
1998-1999
2000-2001
2002-2003
TOTAL
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31,845
3,614
1,529
36,988
DIRECT
14,922
2,210
864
17,996
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INDIRECT
16,923
1,478
665
19,067
Effects
External
sector
8,677
866
366
9,909
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Algunas cifras sobre el impacto en el Caribe
Disaster
Impact on the
Relative
economy (as Relative damage to Relative damage to damage to
percentage of GDP) total f iscal income
total public debt total exports
Earthquake in Antigua and Barbuda (8 October 1974)
Hurricanes Davi8d and Federico, Dominican Republic (August
September 1979)
Hurricane David in Dominica (August 1979)
Huricane Luis in Anguilla (1995)
2.3
56.6
72.0
13.2
16.0
296.5
94.0
115.4
1020.5
75.5
120.0
705.9
Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn in Sint Maarten (Septemver 1995)
223.7
1672.7
Hurricane Georges in Saint Kitts and Nevis (September 1998)
193.3
Hurricane Georges in Dominican Republic (September 1998)
14.0
Hurricane Lenny in Anguilla (November 1999)
146.2
Hurricane Keith in Belize (November 1999)
45.7
Hurricane Iris in Belize (October 2001)
38.5
Hurricane Michelle in Jamaica (October 2001)
8.0
Floods in Jamaica (May-June 2002)
0.7
Average
89.9
Source: ECLAC estimates on the basis of evaluations made at the request of Governments
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691.2
94.7
62.0
1819.4
43.7
669.8
78.8
65.0
201.1
4.0
339.0
2.8
522.0
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Source: Overview of Hydro-meteorological Disasters in Asia, Ti Le-Huu, Water Resources Section,
Environment and Sustainable Development Division, UNESCAP
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Disasters' impact in Asia
China
Bangladesh
Cambodia
As percentage of GDP
(yearly average)
3 to 6%
persons affected
(yearly average)
25 to 50 million
30 million
.5 to 1 million
5 to 10%
.5 million
Indonesia
Laos
Philippines
Pakistan
Vietnam
Average for the region (ECLAC
estimate)
10 to 15%
80 to 100 million
Source: National papers presented at ESCAP Regional Workshop, May 2004
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Major type of dysaster
Floods, earthquakes and fires
Floods and drought
Floods
Floods, typhoons, drought and
fires
Floods, landslides, river bank
erosion, drought and fires
Typhoons, floods and landsildes
Floods and drought
Floods, typhoons and storm
surges (flash floods)
Floods, typhoons, landslides,
drought and fires
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Break disaster’s vicious cycle
Adaptado de Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID,
1999)
Level of damage is
reduced
(lower vulnerability)
Improvisation is
avoided
NEW
DISASTER
*
Tragic
experience is
not forgotten to
keep mitigation
effort as
ongoing
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Planning focuses on
vulnerability
reduction
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Postdisaster
phase
Stabilization recuperation
Experience is
recorded and valued
(lessons learned)
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BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND RESUMING THE
PATH OF DEVELOPMENT
Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction
SECURITY
(Reduced Vulnerability)
*
SOCIAL
STABILITY
GOOD
GOVERNANCE
ECONOMIC
RECOVERY
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Source: Overview of Hydro-meteorological Disasters in Asia, Ti Le-Huu, Water Resources Section,
Environment and Sustainable Development Division, UNESCAP
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Source: Overview of Hydro-meteorological Disasters in Asia, Ti Le-Huu, Water Resources Section,
Environment and Sustainable Development Division, UNESCAP
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Exposure to risk and level of development:
UNDP’s Disaster Risk Index
Source: United Nations Development Programme,
Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, presentation at ESCAP Regional
Workshop, May 2004
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WHAT IS THE ECLAC
METHODOLOGY
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A tool for the socio-economic and environmental
assessment of disasters
Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage
evaluation and quantification method for disaster
affected sectors
Standard sectoral procedures that allows
comparability of results
Instrument for the decision making process and
for policy formulation as it identifies more
severely affected sectors, geographical areas and
vulnerable groups
Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects
not included in national accounting and assessing
specific vulnerability (of social groups, such as
women and the environment)
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Some things are easier to measure
than others
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IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
• The value of lives lost or affected
• The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment /
profitability. This is associated with the lack of adequate
base lines that assess the level, quality and efficiency /
efficacy of health services provided
• The value and quality of services provided (both curative
and preventive)
• The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when
field hospitals and evacuation processes are operational)
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IT IS EASIER TO DETERMINE
• The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs.
The potential losses in equipment and inventories
• The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition
cost of affected infrastructure
• The alternative cost of providing services when
infrastructures collapse
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WHAT IT DOES:
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Allows projecting future performance of the affected
economy in the short and medium term, and
implement the necessary corrective economic policy
measures
Allows to determine the State’s capacity to face
reconstruction tasks and determine needs for
cooperation and international financing
Facilitates training in damage valuation and
formulation of mitigation strategies
Involves affected population with relevant
authorities and aid providers
Puts in evidence the systemic character of the
development process and the interaction among
sectors and stakeholders
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Main Concepts
Direct damages
 Impact on assets
Indirect Damages
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• Infrastructure
• Capital
• Stocks
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Occur
immediately
during or after
the phenomenon
that caused the
disaster
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Effects on flows
• Production
• Reduced income
and increased
expenses
Are perceived after
the phenomenon, for
a time-period that
can last from weeks
to months, till
recuperation occurs
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Measuring the damage “delta” or damage gap
Pre-existing
conditions (ex ante)
The measure
Of direct and indirect damages
Upon the pre-existing situation
(sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the
national accounts and determines the resulting disastercaused scenario, as the gap over the expected
performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may
be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the
Expected
Disaster impact
reconstruction process
performance (without
(ex post)
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disaster)
3-5 years
3-5 years 31
SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION
METHODOLOGY
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Social Sectors
• Housing
• Health
• Education,
culture, sports
Infrastructure
• Transport and
communications
• Energy
• Water and
sewerage
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Productive sectors
• Goods: agriculture,
industry
• Services: commerce,
tourism, etc.
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Global impact
• On the
environment
• Gender perspective
• Employment and
social conditions
• Macroeconomic
assessment
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Summary table
SECTOR
DIRECT
Physical
PRODUCTIVE SECTORS
Agriculture (includes cattle raising,
fisheries and forestry)
Industry
Commerce
Services
- Financial and banking
- Tourism
- Personal and other
INFRASTRUCTURE
Water (drinking, irrigation, drainage,
sanitation and sewerage)
Energy (generation, transmission,
distribution)
- Electricity
- Other (petroleum, gas, etc.)
Transport and communications
SOCIAL ASPECTS
Education
Health
Housing
Cultural heritage
Social fabric
ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS
TOTAL
GOVERNMENT SECTOR
IMPLICATIONS
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Revenues
- Expenditures
INDIRECT PUBLIC PRIVATE TOTAL
EXTERNAL
IMPACT
Monetary
estimate
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Summary of global impact
Ex-ante
situation
(current
III. MACRO / GLOBAL IMPACT (current value) period)
Ex-post
situation Short/medium
(present term projections
period)
(scenarios)
Scenario 1
(Below trend)
1. GDP
External Balance (A+B)
- Exports
- Imports
A - TRADE BALANCE
B - CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT
BALANCE
- Net loans (considering service and
repayment)
- Net donations
- Net transfers (private)
- Other net incoming resources (insurance and
reinsurance payments)
2. FISCAL BALANCE
- Revenues
- Expenditures
3. CAPITAL ACCOUNT
- Gross capital formation
- domestic
investment
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- foreign direct investment
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Scenario 2
(Average or
Scenario 3
trend)
("Optimistic")
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ORGANIZATION OR
PROCEDURAL ASPECTS OF
ASSESSMENT EXERCISES
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Composition of team: multisectoral,
interdisciplinary, interinstitutional
Timeliness: within the “window of
opportunity”, not interfering with
emergency actions
Ensure full coverage and avoid duplication
The need for “judgment calls” or the
educated guessing of experts
Difference between emergency needs and
rapid assessment of need for reconstruction
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ECLAC’s additional tools
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Through the use of REDATAM (a
software developed to geo-reference
information of household surveys) it
has been possible to visualize the
changing map of poverty and welfare
reduction caused by disasters (as
exemplified in the El Salvador
earthquakes of 2002)
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Geographical distribution of damages: Geo-referencing and
impact on poverty and welfare levels in the case of El
Salvador, both quakes (millions of dollars)
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ECLAC’s current activities in the
field of an interregional nature
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IDB-ECLAC project on disaster indicators and national
studies: In this two part project ECLAC is executing a component
that, through a modified, dynamic version of the methodology will
look at the cumulative impact of disasters in selected countries
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World Bank/Disaster Management Facility (DMF)-ECLAC work
programmes first allowed the publication in English and Spanish of
the methodology and the presentation of it beyond Latin America and
the Caribbean by participating and / or organizing workshops at the
World Bank Headquarters (two since 2001) and with the Asian
Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok (2001) with a
regional nature and Manila (2004) at the national level with the civil
defense authority.
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World Bank Institute (WBI)-ECLAC collaboration in WBI regional
courses by introducing in urban planning and development the
disaster valuation module (in Panama, 2003, and Guatemala, 2004).
Currently completed such module for a distance learning course that
will be launched in a training for trainers seminar at the world level
(Moscow, June 2004)
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In other regions
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ECLAC-ADPC, through a memorandum of understanding in the
process of being signed, support ADPC’s activities in adapting the
ECLAC methodology to Asian countries. Currently providing
technical expertise to a project in Gujarat, India
ECLAC-ESCAP, at the invitation and with the funding of
ESCAP/UNDP (Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Reduction, BCPR)
participated in a Regional Workshop on Methodologies of
Assessment and their Application for Poverty Eradication and
Economic Development (Bangkok, 18 - 20 May 2004)
ECLAC-ISDR, ongoing collaboration with the secretariat both at the
regional level with its Latin American and Caribbean office in Costa
Rica and headquarters in Geneva, which allowed in the past the
translation to French of the methodology, and now preparing
collaboration for the participation in the 2nd. World Conference on
Disaster Reduction (to be held in Kobe, Japan, January 2005)
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FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
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Lessons from past events and changing
conditions associated with climate variability and
change
Move from “forensic” appraisal of disasters as
done for over 30 years to “preventive medicine”
where valuation is a tool for disaster reduction
Improvement and expansion of methodology in
social and environmental aspects
Combine the existing methodology of ECLAC with
econometric modeling and prospective analysis
and forecasting
Train national local authorities to gather relevant
baseline data and government officials in the
economic planning and financial ministries
Promote mitigation policies and risk
management beyond response to prevention
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The images we do not want to see
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Where do we want to be in the
future?
(in the medium and long term)
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Changed emphasis from relief and damage
valuation after the event to use of risk
management instruments and cooperation for
disaster reduction
Have increasingly in place policies that include:
• Economic instruments (from the public sector)
• Financial products (public and private, including
such as Cat Bonds, etc.)
• Public and private assessment of risk and
auditing of risk management strategies,
including questions of accountability and liability
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Concrete proposals for the short
term
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ECLAC – ESCAP cooperation in methodological development and
adaptation
Joint project to be undertaken with the support and cooperation of
Asian countries and UNDP (BCPR)
Contribute to the development of UNDP’s Disaster Risk Index,
which is based on lives lost and requires increase weight of socioeconomic impact
Participation in the 2nd. Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe,
January 2005)
Partnership with ISDR Secretariat
Partnership with the World Bank and the Provention Consortium
Explore possibilities for cooperation activities with ECA and the
other regional commissions for example in the valuation of
droughts and watershed management (as part of the Water
Decade)
Expand the analysis of the linkage and systemic relation between
disasters, poverty and the achievement of the MDGs
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Thank you


www.eclac.cl
www.eclac.cl/mexico
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