Transcript Kimura Presentation - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

What causes the disputes
between Japan and South Korea?
Kan Kimura
Professor, Graduate School of
International Cooperation Studies
Kobe University
Outline
• Introduction to today’s situation
• The reason for failed cooperation between
Japan and South Korea
• The reason for the perception gap between
the two countries
• How to change this situation
Deadlocked Japan-ROK Relations
• After Lee Myung-bak’s visit to Takeshima/Dokdo
in Aug. 2012, diplomatic cooperation between
the two countries became deadlocked.
• Public opinion in each country also maintains a
very strong stance against the other.
• There are no active movements in either country
to improve relations.
• In Japan, in particular, anti-Korean sentiment is
clearly growing.
Long- and short-term trends
• Complicated historical and territorial issues
between the two countries as constants (a)
• Frequency of the disputes as the
dependent variable (y)
• Importance of the counterpart as the
independent variable (x)
• Hypothesis: f(x-a)=y and if x-a<0, we will
see a dramatic increase in the disputes
Frequency of keywords accompanying the term “Japan” in Chosun-ilbo articles
교과서
위안부
정신대
야스쿠니/
야스꾸니
Textbook
Comfort
woman
Volunteer
labor corps
Yasukuni
教科書
慰安婦
挺身隊
靖国
神社+参拝
独島
独立運動
親日派
賠償
1945-49
0
0
0.0016
0
0
0.0243
0.0089
0.0251
0.038
1950-54
0
0
0
0
0
0.0844
0.0075
0.0021
0.0139
1955-59
0.0006
0
0
0
0
0.0135
0.0188
0.0009
0.0074
1960-64
0
0
0
0
0
0.0112
0.013
0.0004
0.0049
1965-69
0.0006
0
0
0
0
0.0198
0.0207
0.0008
0.0023
1970-74
0.0005
0
0
0.0011
0.0012
0.005
0.0077
0
0.0014
1975-79
0.0004
0.0002
0
0.0002
0.0004
0.0185
0.009
0.0002
0.0011
1980-84
0.0555
0
0.001
0.0002
0.0019
0.0095
0.0094
0
0.0008
1985-89
0.0152
0
0.0008
0.0004
0.0025
0.0084
0.0154
0.0004
0.0008
1990-94
0.0068
0.098
0.1757
0.0034
0.018
0.0327
0.0484
0.0056
0.0079
1995-99
0.0084
0.0364
0.0169
0.0019
0.0064
0.0542
0.0618
0.0016
0.0111
2000-04
0.0233
0.0332
0.0058
0.0125
0.029
0.0457
0.0371
0.0034
0.0029
2005-09
0.0114
0.0242
0.0034
0.0265
0.0193
0.1594
0.0406
0.0076
0.0025
2000-14
0.0148
0.0786
0.0051
0.0221
0.0176
0.1031
0.0182
0.003
0.0055
Keyword
신사+참배
독도
독립운동
친일파
배상
Shinto shrine Dokdo/ Indepedence
Collaborator Compensation
+ Worship Takeshima movement
Keywords regarding Korea-Japan relations in Japanese textbooks
(Survey of Senior High School textbooks published by Tokyo Shoseki)
Keyword
1978
1983
1990
1993
1996
2000
2004
First Japan-Korea Treaty (1904)
A
B
B
B
B
A
A
B
A
A
A
B
A
Second Japan-Korea Treaty (1905)
Third Japan-Korean Treaty (1907)
B
Hague Secret Emissary Affair
Residents-General
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
An Jung-Geun
A
Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty
A
A
A
A
A
A
Governor-General of Korea
A
A
A
A
A
A
Colonial Era Land Reforms
B
B
B
B
B
A
B
A
A
B
A
A
Kōminka Movement
B
B
B
B
A
Sōshi-Kaimei
B
B
B
B
A
Righteous Armies Protests
B
B
B
A
A
March 1st Movement
A
B
Great Kantō Earthquake
A
Comfort Women
B
Forced Labor
A
A
A: Boldface font B: Normal font
Amount of trade with South Korea
250000000
200000000
150000000
100000000
50000000
0
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
China
Japan
USA
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.45
Share in South Korean Trade
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
China
Hong Kong
India
Japan
Taiwan
USA
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
Share in Japanese trade
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
R KOREA
CHINA
0.15
TAIWAN
USA
0.1
0.05
0
South Korean Share in Japanese Trade
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
Shares in Chinese Trade
0.25
0.2
0.15
Japan
Republic of Korea
Taiwan
USA
0.1
0.05
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Military Expenditure (Current US$)
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Japan
Korea, South
Taiwan
Why does Japan’s “value-oriented
diplomacy” approach not work today?
• Japan clearly regarded China as the
important challenger to this approach.
most
• Japan expects this approach to be welcomed in
countries around China as a starting point for
relations with Japan.
→ This means that today’s Japan regards China as
a “natural” hypothetical enemy and expects other
nations to share this understanding.
However…
• South Koreans today regard China as one
of their two most important partners,
along with the United States.
• Improvement of relations with China is
one of the most important diplomatic
policies of the Park Geun-hye government.
Reasons for the perception gap
1) Different levels of economic
dependency on China
2) “Actual” territorial disputes
3) Different messages from the
United States on US-China rivalry
Trade with
China/
GDP
Trade with
Korea/
GDP
Trade with
Japan/
GDP
Year
China
-
2.9
3.3
2013
Korea
17.5
-
7.2
2013
Japan
6.3
1.8
-
2013
M. of US$
％
％
TRADE DEPENDECY
100
90
80
70
China
60
India
Japan
50
Korea, Rep.
France
40
Germany
United Kingdom
30
20
10
0
United States
Contribution of Trade to GDP
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995
2000
2005
Korea
2008
Japan
2009
Number Tons
ROK
China
Japan
190
Aircraft
Carrier
Destroyer
Frigate Submarine
(with
Aegis system)
(Nuclear
Submarine)
19.2
0
12(3)
9
12
1090 135.2
1
26
52
56(8)
0
42(6)
6
16
143
45.1
Conservatives in each nation have
different ideas about China
Economic
Expected
Dependency US military
on China
role
Result
Major threat to
security
Effect on
relations with
China
Plus
Minus
Sector
Business
Security
Japan
Not Active
Active
Hard-line
Policy
China → Minus
South Korea
Very Active
Not Active
Soft-line
Policy
DPRK → Plus
What can we do about this situation?
• We need to re-establish discourse about
why Japan-ROK relations are important
for each country.
• The discourse has to be understood by
normal people.
• On historical/territorial issues, we need
more open academic research in front of
the international community.
References
• Kan Kimura. “Discovery of Disputes: Collective Memories on
Textbooks and Japanese–South Korean Relations.” Journal of
Korean Studies 17, No. 1, Spring 2012.
• Kan Kimura. “Why Are the Issues of ‘Historical Perceptions’
between Japan and South Korea Persisting?” Journal of
International Cooperation Studies 19, No. 1, July 2011.
• Kan Kimura. Koji Kagotani, and Jeff Weber. “Democracy and
Diversionary Incentives in Japan-South Korean Disputes.”
International Relations of Pacific-Asia 13, No. 3, September
2013.
• 木村幹『日韓歴史認識問題とは何か』 ミネルヴァ書房、2014年
• 木村幹「韓国は何故中国に傾斜するか」、『アジア時報』2013年6月
• 木村幹「新政権下の日韓関係：日韓両国は何故対立するか」、
『問題と研究』2013年10･11･12月号、2013年12月