Transcript 1.96 MB - egnret - Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

California’s Efforts In Addressing New
Electricity Markets
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Expert Group on New and Renewable
Energy Technologies
Terry Surles, Director
Technology Systems Division
California Energy Commission
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
GDP (2000)
GDP
(2000)
9,900
U.S.
Japan
Germany
U.K.
CALIFORNIA
France
China
Italy
Canada
Brazil
Mexico
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
GDP (2000) [trillions of U.S. dollars]
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Energy Perspective


Previous system wasn’t broken
Market power became concentrated



No price signal for end users
Loss of momentum on demand side management



10 GWh saved by early 1990’s
Restructuring derails utility DSM
1.4 GW of renewable cancelled



profits up by selling more for less
“No need”
Price was above cost to utilities
Results


Demand up 0.7%, price up 130%
Blackouts with 28 GW laid, with ~50 GW capacity
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Production of Electricity by Source - 1999
Wind/solar- 1.6
Geothermal - 4.8
Biomass/waste- 2.0
Oil- 0.2
Imports
31
Natural
Gas
15
13
Geothermal- 0.4
NG-15.5
Imports- 1.2
Hydro- 32.6
Oil- 3.2
Coal- 51.9
18
15
Wind/solar-0.1
Imports
Hydro
15
8.5
Nat Gas
20
Nuclear
51
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
California
276 TWh
U.S.
3,678 TWh
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
CA Energy Use by Sector (1999)
Commercial
11%
Residential
13%
Industrial
27%
Transportation
49%
Transportation
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Peak Demand is Increasing Faster
than Newly Installed Capacity
9,000
8,000
Peak Load Growth
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
Capacity Additions
2,000
1,000
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Contribution to ISO Peak Demand
August 16, 2001 (MW)
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
43,509 MW
Commercial AC
Commercial Lighting
Residential AC
25000
20000
15000
Other
10000
5000
0
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Rising Peak Demand Threatens
Reliability and Power Quality
California Stage 1-3 Alert
Number of Statewide Electricity Alerts by Year
200
Stage 3
150
Stage 2
100
Stage 1
50
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Peak Demand
Influenced by Economics and Weather
60000
55000
Weather
50000
Demand Reduction and Weather
45000
Recession
40000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Summer 2001 Peak Demand
Reductions
SEP
AUG
AcAd
JUL
Percent Change
2000 to 2001
JUN
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Adjusted for weather and Economic Growth
Actual
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Factors Contributing to Demand
Reduction
- Electricity price increases
- Public awareness of crisis and voluntary conservation
- Demand reduction programs, 20/20 Program
- State and regional economic recession
- Increased supply
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Next Steps



Diffuse excess market power
Address potential for supply overshoot
Change buyer’s mentality



Education - it’s more than flicking a switch
Take control - it’s not a tax
Develop alternatives



Demand side
Supply side
Enabling technologies
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Public Interest Energy Research (PIER)
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California has Established a $62M/yr
Public Interest Energy Research Program (PIER)
California’s Energy Future
Economy:
Affordable
Solutions
Quality:
Reliable and
Available
Environment:
Protect and
Enhance
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Vision Statement
The future electrical system of California will
provide a clean, abundant and affordable supply
tailored to the needs of “smart”, efficient customers
and will be the best in the nation.
Tailored,
clean,
abundant,
affordable
supply
Smart, efficient
customers
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Our R&D Program Must Address Future Market
Scenarios
Regulated
• New energy systems
Status Quo
• Same players
Centralized
De-centralized
• Same energy systems
• New players
Supermarket of
Choices
De-regulated
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Technology Development Continuum
From Innovation to Market
PIER Program (RD&D)
Renewable
Export
Energy
Program
Program
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Funded Program Areas to December
2001 (in millions)
Supply
Renewables, EPAG
$82
Demand
Buildings, Ind/Ag/Water
$50
$48
Strategic, Environmental
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
PIER Objectives: Meeting Ratepayers
Needs

Tangible products reach market


Prepare for the next crisis


end use energy efficiency
Distributed energy sources




legislative justification
supply alternatives
demand side management
enabling systems
externalities (environment, resource, security),
climate change
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Berkeley Lamp

Technical Success: Validated energy savings
Average Daily Energy Use Before and After Berkeley Lamp Installation
2500
1500
Before Retrofit
After Retrofit
1000
500
10:55 PM
8:50 PM
6:45 PM
4:40 PM
2:35 PM
12:30 PM
10:25 AM
8:20 AM
6:15 AM
4:10 AM
2:05 AM
0
12:00 AM
Power ( W)
2000
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
PIER Buildings Program Highlights
Night Breeze

Provides ventilation
and cooling at night,
reducing or
eliminating the need
for air conditioning
during the day
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
High Performance Fume Hood
• reduces airflow and
energy requirements by
30-50%
• flow reduction from
each hood cuts energy
costs by $1000/yr
• maintains or enhances
worker safety
• ASHRAE standard
test achieved
containment with 70%
flow reduction
• with 30,000 hoods in
state, the new Hood
could save about 360
million kWh/yr, totaling
nearly $30 million
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
PowerLight Corporation BuildingIntegrated PV Roof System
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
The Wind Turbine Company





Design, develop and demonstrate a
utility-scale wind turbine
Horizontal axis, two-blade, downwind
design
Prototype developed for PIER and
tested at NREL rated at 250 kW
Commercial prototype demonstration
sited at the Fairmont Reservoir in
LADWP territory for a 500 kW - scaled
up to 750 kW - wind turbine
demonstration to begin in October 2001
Goal is to produce electricity  $0.035
cents per kWh per 100 unit wind farms
with wind resources  15 mph.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Technical Support for DG
Interconnection Standards





Reduces average cost of
interconnection fees to
consumers by 37%
Supports Rule 21 by
resolving technical safety
issues
Establishes technology &
size neutral review process
Identified testing and
certification requirements
Enables insertion of new
generation (e.g. renewables)
into the grid
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Real Time Transmission Line
Monitoring/Rating
• tension monitoring
increases transmission
capabilities by 15-30%
• highly accurate measures line sagging to
within 1-3 inches
• increased safety provides the actual real
time rating and provides
alarms of impending
clearance violations
• system 1-3 were built for
utilities in Virginia,
Colorado and Finland
• 200th system was sold
on 8/4/00. The systems
are in use on five
continents by 70 utilities.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Alzeta Gas Turbine Semi-Radiant
Burner (GTSB)
• PIER is helping develop low- or
no- emission electric production
methods, including gas turbines for
use in DG
•Alzeta’s GTSB combustors
successfully demonstrated
simultaneous readings  2 ppm
emissions of NOx, CO and unburned
hydrocarbon on gaseous fuels during
prototype testing.
• Goal is to lower cost of emission
reduction by $100/kW for smaller
facilities
•Alzeta has paid $24,464 to date in
royalty repayment to the PIER
Program based on direct sales and
licensing of the product
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California’s
RENEWABLE ENERGY
PROGRAM
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Renewable Generation Issues
Developers of new renewable energy
projects currently face a high degree of
uncertainty
•
• The biggest impediment to further
development of renewable projects is the
lack of a stable market with buyers willing
to provide adequate price certainty
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Renewable Energy Program
OBJECTIVES



To facilitate the development of a self-sustaining,
consumer-driven renewable energy market in
California.
To encourage market-based development of new
and emerging renewable resources.
To maintain the benefits and diversity of the
renewable energy industry and move towards
market competitiveness with the broader
electricity industry.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California’s
Renewable Energy Program
At a Glance


$540 million in program funding (1998 - 2002)
Market-based support for supply and demand sides
of renewable energy market by providing:




Production incentives for existing and new renewable
electricity generation
Capital cost buydowns to install on-site distributed
generation systems
Rebates to customers who purchase renewable electricity
Consumer education
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Renewable Generation By Type
18000
16000
14000
GEOTHERMAL
10000
8000
BIOMASS
6000
4000
WIND
2000
SOLAR
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
0
19
83
GWH
12000
YEAR
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Investment Plan
Renewable Energy
Consumption Targets
2002
2004
2006
-
-
<1%
12%
12%
12%
New
1%
3%
5%
Total
13%
15%
17%
Emerging
Existing
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Investment Plan
Renewables Generation Goals
50000
45000
40000
35000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
20
05
20
03
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
0
19
83
GWH
30000
YEAR
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Energy Commission
Energy Technology Export Program
Role: Promote California Energy
Technology Exports
 Results: Stimulated Over $400 Million
in Export Sales

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy Technology Export
Program Focus




Assist Small and Mid - Size Companies
Develop International Energy Projects
(<$100Million in Capital Costs/Project)
Feature Clean Combustion Power Plants,
Energy Efficiency, Industrial Cogeneration,
Renewable Energy
Asia and Latin America Concentration
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Recent Projects






Wind Power Projects (16.5 MW) - Greece
Clean Coal (CFB) Power Plants - China
Industrial Cogeneration (12 MW) - Thailand
Hotel Energy Efficiency Retrofits - Mexico
and Panama
Geothermal Power Plant (5 MW) - Vanuatu
Electric Bicycle Kits (2,000 Units) - China
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Program Functions

Identify/Evaluate
Export Opportunities




Target Markets
Scouting Missions
Identify & Qualify
Projects




Conferences & Trade
Missions



International Energy
Fund
Facilitate Project
Development

Energy Audits of C/I
Sector Projects
Matchmaking

Project Feasibility
Funding
Company Directory
Technical Advice
Financing Advice
Advice to Foreign
Governments
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Market Niches
Utility-Scale, Grid-Connected Power
Generation
 Commercial Building Energy
Efficiency Retrofits
 Industrial Cogeneration/Onsite Power
 Off-Grid or Mini-Grid Power Systems

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
International Project Financing



Pre-Investment: CEC Intl Energy Fund
Pre-Development: E&Co./Rockefeller
Foundation/Venture Capital
Project Financing/Project Development:





EXIM Bank: >$10 Million
IFC/REEEF: 25% Debt/Equity
Equity Investors/Equity Funds
Multi-Lateral Banks: World Bank, ADB
Dresdner Bank
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
capita
CO2CO
per
Capita
(1999)
2 per
Brazil
China
Mexico
France
Italy
Japan
U.K.
Germany
CALIFORNIA
Canada
U.S.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CO2 emissions (1999) per capita [metric ton C]
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
CO
GDP
(1999)
CO22 //GDP
(1999)
Japan
France
CALIFORNIA
Italy
U.K.
Germany
Brazil
U.S.
Mexico
Canada
China
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
CO2 emissions (1999) / GDP (1999) [g C / US $]
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Factors Contributing to Demand
Reduction





Electricity price increases
Public awareness of crisis and voluntary
conservation
Demand reduction program, 20/20 program
State and regional economic recession
Increased supply
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Next Steps:



Diffuse excess market power
Address potential for supply overshoot
Change buyer’s mentality



Education - it’s more than flicking a switch
Take control - it’s not a tax
Develop alternatives



end-use energy efficiency
distributed energy resources
enabling technologies for DSM and real-time pricing
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION