Transcript Alexander-Stolyarov

New Challenges for Carriers in Caspian Region
Alexander Stolyarov
Deputy of Head, Wholesale Department
28th April 2011, Istanbul, Turkey
Agenda
I
Telecom market perspectives
3-4
II
Major wholesale segments
5-7
III TTK & new challenges
8-11
2
Economy Perspectives
Economy Growth in CIS & Caspian Regions,
GDP in $billion
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2008
2009
Russia
2010
Turkey
2011
Iran
2012
Ukraine
2013
Kazakhstan
2014
2015
 CIS & Caspian regions
survived the strong impact of
economic turbulence in 2008 2009
 Russian GDP dropped on 7.0% in 2009, while it grew on
+4.9% in 2010
 All countries will continue
stable growth in next five
years
Others
Fast economic development creates the
positive future for telecom carriers
Source: International Monetary Fund
3
Telecom Markets
Telecom Markets in CIS & Caspian Regions,
$billion
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006
2007
Russia
Turkey
2008
Ukraine
Iran
2009
Kazakhstan
2010
 Impact of economic crisis
was indirect for telecom
industry in 2008 - 2009
 Development rate of
telecom markets decreased,
but not stopped in many
countries
 Russian telecom market
increased about 10% in 2010
Others
Telecom markets continued the growth in
Caspian region in 2010
Sources: Business Monitor, Telecom Administrations
4
Major Market Segments
Telecom Revenue Structure in Russia
100%
Others
80%
Satellite & radio
communications
Wholesale transit
60%
Data communications
40%
Mobile communications
20%
Lond-distance telephony
Local telephony
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010F
 Actual change of
market structure is not
so fast in many countries
 Voice is still the
“King”, including fixed
and mobile ones
 While revenue from
fixed voice services is
declining
 Data communications
are the fastest growing
segment
Voice, data & wholesale transit cover 95% of
market revenue
Source: RosBusiness Consulting
5
International Wholesale Segments
I. IP Capacity in CIS & Caspian Regions
60
max.
$100-150
per Mbps
1,5
50
40
1,0
30
20
0,5
10
0,0
0
2006
2007
Capacity
2008
2009
2010
Average Bandwidth Price
Source: TeleGeography & TTK estimations
Average Bandwidth Price,
$ / Mbps / month
Capacity, Tbps
2,0
 IP is the major driver for
capacity demand
 Revenue grew 4 times
to over $200 million in CIS
& Caspian regions
 Major markets: Russia,
Turkey, Ukraine,
Kazakhstan
 Capacity increased 20
times to 1,9 Tbps, while
average bandwidth prices
decreased 5 times for past
5 years
6
International Wholesale Segments
II. Voice in CIS & Caspian Regions
14,0
International Telecom Traffic,
billion minutes
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Outgoing
2008
2009F 2010F
Incoming
Source: TeleGeography, RCC & TTK estimations
 Large customer base
(2010):
 main telephone lines >
120 millions
 mobile subscribers > 470
millions
 Region absorbs ~ 12
billion minutes of
international traffic
 Incoming traffic
essentially prevails
outgoing one
 ~ 30% of outgoing traffic
is VoIP
7
Market Challenges
 Rapid growth of international
bandwidth due to increasing
demand for IP capacity
 Relative price per Mbps is still
decreasing dramatically
 Lack of infrastructure and needs
for network development in some
countries
 VoIP traffic growth
TTK approach:
Development through technological innovations
8
TTK Regional Focus
 Major CIS interconnections:
 Ukraine – 35 Gbps
 Belorussia – 25 Gbps
 Kazakhstan – 25 Gbps
 Azerbaijan – 10 Gbps
 European IP up-streams 230 Gbps
9
Growing Capabilities
Further growth of transit
capabilities will be provided by:
TTK Transit Capabilities
(Central Russia), Gbps
 10G to 40G migration at main
backbone routes
 Shift of 10G systems to SDH
routes with rapidly growing
demand
 Implementation of WDM
systems
 Development 10GE IP MPLS
1400
1200
> 1 Tbps
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
10
TTK Services
NGN
IP MPLS 10GE
IP 10GE
SDH
• Long-Distance Telephony
• IP VPN
• EPL
• IP Access
• NPL & IPL
DWDM 10G&40G
11
Thank you for attention!
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