Transcript The Trials and Tribulations of Developing

U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Trials and Tribulations of
Developing International Services
Price Indexes
The 2008 World Congress on National
Accounts and Economic Performance
Measures for Nations
William Alterman
Jeanette Siegel
Will Adonizio
May 17, 2008
What is the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is
the principal fact-finding agency for the
Federal Government in the field of labor
economics and statistics.
BLS is an independent, national statistical
agency that primarily collects and reports
economic data covering prices,
employment, and compensation.
What is the International Price Program?
Within BLS, the International Price Program
(IPP) is one of three price programs, along with
the Producer Price Program (PPI) and the
Consumer Price Program (CPI).
The data published by the IPP track price changes
of U.S. imports and exports.
These data are used to construct “real” trade
flows; assess the impact of exchange rate
fluctuations; and measure and forecast inflation.
BLS Services Price Indexes
CPI
PPI
IPP
Transactions
Included
Domestic and
some imports
Domestic and
some exports
Imports and
Exports
Prices
Measured
Paid by
consumers
Received by
producers
Paid by Importers
Received by
Exporters
Services % of
Total Trade
59%
77%
Exports: 30%
Imports: 17%
Coverage of
Services
100%
76%
Exports: 7%
Imports: 11%
Data Sources
for Sampling
and Weighting
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey
Unemployment
Insurance File
Census Data
Various Sources
specific to each
index
The Growing Importance of
International Services
• Impact on the World
Economy/Globalization
• Creation of Newly “Tradable” International
Services
• Expansion of Established International
Services
Importance of International
Services in U.S. Trade Statistics
• Growth in Cross-Border Trade
– From 1995-2005, exports of services grew 81 percent
and imports of services grew 119 percent.
– GDP grew 68 percent.
– In 2005 services comprised approximately 30 percent
of all exports and 17 percent of all imports.
• Growth in Sales Through Affiliates
– During the same time period, U.S. affiliate sales
abroad (MOFA) grew 178 percent and foreign affiliate
sales in the U.S. (MOUSA) grew 160 percent.
Cross-Border and Sales Through
Affiliates
Cross-Border Exports and U.S. Affiliate Sales Abroad
Billions of Dollars
600
500
U.S. cross-border
exports Billions of
dollars
400
300
U.S. affiliate sales
abroad
200
100
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
0
Year
500
400
300
U.S. cross-border
imports
200
Foreign affiliate sales
in U.S.
100
Year
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
0
1986
Billions of Dollars
Cross-Border Imports and Foreign Affiliate Sales in
US
The History of International
Services Development in the
International Price Program
1984-1995
Import and Export Air Passenger Fares
Import and Export Air Freight
Import Ocean Liner Freight
Import Crude Oil Tanker Freight
2006
Completed Switch From Quarterly to
Monthly Publication of Services Price
Indexes
2007
Export Travel and Tourism
Export Post Secondary Education
IPP Budget Cuts
2008
Challenges
• Budget
• Conceptual
• Measurement
• Operational/maintenance
Budget Issues
• Development of Services Indexes is More
Labor Intensive than Goods
• Significant Growth in Both Import and
Export Goods – cannot shift resources to
work on Services
• No Additional Funding for Services
• Budget Reductions in the International
Price Program in 2006 & 2008
Conceptual Issues
What Types of International Services
Indexes Should We Measure?
• Cross-Border
• Sales through Affiliates
• Input/Import Indexes
Conceptual Issues within Specific
Services Areas/International Services
• What is the Service?
Measurement Issues
Defining the International Services
Transaction
Obtaining Data: Sample Frame, Weights,
and Prices
Pricing Consistent International Services
Transactions Over Time
Operational Issues
Developing Sampling and Weighting
Methodologies
Developing the Processing Requirements and
Software to Produce International Services Price
Indexes
Maintaining International Services Indexes Over
Time
Aggregating International Services Indexes
How do we differ from the PPI?
• Conceptual and Measurement Differences
• Operational Differences
• Classification Differences
Direction for the Future
What We Know We Can Cover
Additional Cross-Border Indexes
New Types of Indexes
Collaborative Efforts with PPI
QUESTIONS????