Transcript Is_Growth_Good - University of Vermont

Is Growth Good?
Gary Flomenhoft
Gund Institute for Ecological Economics
6-23-03
Human Welfare Index and GDP
y = 17.117Ln(x) - 101.27
HWI vs GDP/CAP PPP
R2 = 0.8012
90
80
70
60
HWI
50
40
30
20
10
0
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
GDP-CAP PPP
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
UN Human Development Index and GDP
y = 14.792Ln(x) - 55.199
HDI v GDP/CAP PPP
R2 = 0.8663
120
100
HDI
80
60
40
20
0
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
GDP/CAP PPP
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Life Satisfaction and Happiness vs. GDP
GPI Factors
I. Crime & Family Breakdown
(legal fees, medical expenses, damage to property, crime and divorce.)
II. Household & Volunteer Work
III. Income Distribution
IV. Resource Depletion
(Wetlands, farmland, and nonrenewable minerals (including oil) )
V. Pollution
VI. Long-Term Environmental Damage
VII. Changes in Leisure Time
VIII. Defensive Expenditures
(Medical and repair bills from automobile accidents, commuting costs, and
household expenditures on pollution control devices such as water filters.)
IX. Lifespan of Consumer Durables & Public Infrastructure
X. Dependence on Foreign Assets
GPI by Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
Column
A: Personal Consumption Expenditures
B: Income Distribution
C: Personal Consumption Adjusted for Income Inequality
D: Value of Household Labor
E: Value of Volunt eer Work
F: Servic es of Household Capital
G: Services High ways and Street
H: Cost of Crime
I: Cost of Family Breakdown
J: Loss of Leisure Time
K: Cost of Underemployment
L: Cost of Consumer Durables
M: Cost of Commuting
N: Cost of Household Pollution Abatement
O: Cost of Automobile Accidents
P: Cost of Water Pollution
Q: Cost of Air Pollution
R: Cost of Noise Pollution
S: Loss of Wetlands
T: Loss of Farmland
U: Depletion of Nonrenewable Resources
V: Long-Term Environmental Damage
W: Cost of Ozone Depletion
X: Loss of Forest Cover
Y: Net Capital Inv estment
Z: Net Foreign Lending and Borrowing
“When to Stop” Rule
Total Utility and Marginal Utility of Growth
Total
utility
Marginal
utility
Full World or Empty World?
Source:
Ecological
Economics
Principles &
Applications,
Farley and
Daly
ESA Listings and GDP
1400
$10
1200
$9
1000
$8
800
$7
600
$6
400
$5
R2 = 98.4
200
0
1973
$4
$3
1980
1990
2001
Source: The Wildlife Society Technical Review 2003-1.
If World consumption = US: Need 4 more planets
Source:
Center for
A New
American
Dream
Grow out of poverty?
Poverty rate vs. GDP per Capita (1996$)
$35,000
20%
18%
$30,000
16%
$25,000
14%
$20,000
12%
$15,000
10%
8%
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
7
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
7
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
$10,000
per capita GDP (1996$)
poverty rate
Real Wages and productivity 1948-2002
$18.00
160
$16.00
140
$14.00
120
$12.00
100
$10.00
80
$8.00
60
$6.00
40
$4.00
real wages
manufacturing LP
non-farm business LP
01
20
98
19
95
19
92
19
89
19
86
19
83
19
80
19
77
19
74
71
19
19
68
19
65
19
62
19
59
19
19
19
19
19
56
0
53
$0.00
50
20
47
$2.00
Cumulative Increase in Labor Productivity
Hourly Real wages (2002$) and Labor Productivity
Fundamental
Human Needs
Being
(qualities)
Having
(things)
Doing
(actions)
Interacting
(settings)
Subsistence
physical and
mental health
food, shelter
work
feed, clothe,
rest, work
living environment,
social setting
Protection
care,
adaptability
autonomy
social security,
health systems,
work
co-operate,
plan, take care
of, help
social environment,
dwelling
Affection
respect, sense
of humour,
generosity,
sensuality
friendships,
family,
relationships
with nature
share, take care of,
make love, express
emotions
privacy,
intimate spaces
of togetherness
Understanding
critical
capacity,
curiosity, intuition
literature,
teachers, policies
educational
analyse, study,meditate
investigate,
schools, families
universities,
communities,
Participation
receptiveness,
dedication,
sense of humour
responsibilities,
duties, work,
rights
cooperate,
dissent, express
opinions
associations,
parties, churches,
neighbourhoods
Leisure
imagination,
tranquillity
spontaneity
games, parties,
peace of mind
day-dream,
remember,
relax, have fun
landscapes,
intimate spaces,
places to be alone
Creation
imagination,
boldness,
inventiveness,
curiosity
abilities, skills,
work,
techniques
invent, build,
design, work,
compose,
interpret
spaces for
expression,
workshops,
audiences
Identity
sense of
belonging, selfesteem,
consistency
language,
religions, work,
customs,
values, norms
get to know
oneself, grow,
commit oneself
places one
belongs to,
everyday
settings
Freedom
autonomy,
passion, self-esteem,
open-mindedness
equal rights
dissent, choose,
run risks, develop
awareness
anywhere
Herman Daly’s Policies for a steady-state
economy
Criteria:
1. Constant stock of humans
2. Constant stock of goods for providing
services and meeting needs.
3. Sufficient and sustainable level of 1&2
4. Throughput reduced to the lowest level
Social Institutions
Constant Population
Transferable birth licenses
(China 1 child policy)
(Demographic Trend)
Population growth
China population-1.22B-one child policy
Constant Goods
Depletion quotas (Fisheries, hunting licenses)
Pollution quotas (vehicle emissions, SO2)
Fishing quotas
Lease
15 Tons
19 Tons
8 Tons
2 Tons
25 Tons
1 Ton
North Sea
Cod
Haddock
Whiting
Megrim
Monks
Skate
Macduff Fish Selling
Lease
7 Tons
2 Tons
2 Tons West Coast
Haddock
Monk
Megrim Macduff Fish Selling
VERMONT HUNTING, FISHING AND TRAPPING DATES
2001 SEASON (All Dates Inclusive)
FISHING
Trout & Landlocked Salmon April 14– Oct 28
Trout & Landlocked Salmon (Lake Champlain) No Closed Season
Largemouth & Smallmouth Bass June 9 – Nov 30
Catch & Release – Lakes and Ponds April 14– June 8
Pickerel, N. Pike, Yellow Perch No Closed Season
Walleye (Lake Champlain, Lake Carmi & certain areas of Lamoille
& Missisquoi Rivers)
May 6, 2000 - March 15, 2001
May 5, 2001- March 15, 2002
(All other waters except Connecticut River) No Closed Season
Smelt May 26, 2001 - March 31, 2002
Smelt (Lake Champlain) No Closed Season
BIG GAME HUNTING
Deer (Bow & Arrow Only) Oct 6 –28
Youth Deer Day Nov. 4, 2001
Deer (16 Day regular season) Nov. 10 – Nov. 25
Deer (Muzzleloader or Bow & Arrow Only) Dec 1 – 9
Black Bear Sept. 1 – Nov. 14
Turkey Spring May 1 – 31
Fall seasons vary by wildlife management units
SMALL GAME HUNTING
Hare, Rabbit Sept. 30, 2000 – March 11, 2001 & Sept. 29,
2001 – March 10, 2002
Gray Squirrel Sept. 1 – Dec. 31
Bobwhite Quail No Closed Season
Ruffed Grouse (Partridge) Sept. 29 – Dec. 31
Woodcock Set Annually
Pheasant Sept. 29 – Dec. 31
Crow March 14 – April 30 & Aug. 16 – Oct 29
FURBEARER HUNTING
Bobcat Jan. 10 – Feb. 7
Red & Gray Fox Oct. 27, 2001 – Feb. 10, 2002
Raccoon Oct. 13 – Dec. 31
Muskrat March 20 – April 19
Coyote No Closed Season
FURBEARER TRAPPING
Mink, Skunk, Red & Gray Fox, Raccoon, Coyote Oct. 27 –
Dec. 31
Otter Oct. 27 – Dec. 31
(Otter Continued During Beaver Season)
Muskrat 4th Sat. in Oct. – April 19
Fisher, Bobcat Dec. 1 – 16
Beaver TO BE ANNOUNCED
Marten No Open Season
WATERFOWL HUNTING
Set Annually
Read the Guide to Hunting, Fishing & Trapping Laws for
more information and exceptions.
Issued June, 2000 by the Vermont Fish and Wildlife
Department, Waterbury, Vermont
CFC Quotas
CFC Phaseout Schedules: Allowed Production
and Consumption for Developed Countries
(percent of baseline)
1987
1990
1992
1990
1994
Original
Montreal
Protocol
London
Montreal
Protocol
Copenhag
en
Montreal
Protocol
U.S. Clean
Air Act
Amendme
nts
European
Communit
y Schedule
1990
100%
1991
100%
100%
85%
1992
100%
100%
80%
1993
80%
80%
75%
50%
1994
80%
80%
25%
25%
15%
1995
80%
50%
25%
25%
0%
1996
80%
50%
0%
0%
1997
80%
15%
1998
80%
15%
1999
50%
15%
2000
50%
0%
Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto Protocol
Distribution
Minimum and maximum income
All corporate profits distributed to stockholders
Minimum: Speenhamland, minimum income
Experiments, European social democracy,
Welfare, dole, unemployment insurance.
Alaska oil dividend.
Maximum: European marginal tax rates, US
Tax rates in 1950s.
Shareholder Equity-dividends (ALASKA PF)
21 years of
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
dividends
$1,540.76
$1,850.28
$1,963.86
$1,769.84
$1,540.88
$1,296.54
$1,130.68
$990.30
$983.90
$949.46
$915.84
$931.34
$952.63
$873.16
$826.93
$708.19
$556.26
$404.00
$331.29
$386.15
$1,000.00
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Alaska has the smallest gap between rich and poor of any state,
according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Census
Bureau. ALASKA Dividend checks help make for more equal
distribution.
Total Utility and Marginal Utility of Growth
“When to stop” the macro-economy