Transcript Non-oil GDP, growth rate

Socio-economic indicators and inflation
Years
2007
2008
2009
2010
GDP, mln.AZN
Growth rate, %
GDP per capita, $
28360,5
25,0
3474
40137,2
10,8
5603
34578,7
9,3
4874,1
41600
5.0
5797,8
Oil GDP, growth rate, %
36,8
6,8
14,3
1,8
Non-oil GDP,
growth rate, %
Inflation, %
Average yearly
Income of population,
growth rate, %
Average monthly wage,
AZN
growth rate, %
11,4
15,9
3,2
7,9
16,7
40,3
20,8
37,8
1,5
8,0
5,7
13.3
214,0
42,0
274,4
24,2
298,0
8,6
325
9.1
Nominal GDP capacity and growth rate
45000
40,00%
40000
35,00%
34,50%
35000
30000
30,00%
26,40%
25%
25,00%
25000
20,00%
20000
15,00%
15000
10,80%
10000
9,30%
5000
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
GDP capacity (mln.manat)
2009
10,00%
5,00%
5%
3,80%
0,00%
2010
2011
GDP growth rate (%)
2005-2008
2009-2010
GDP growth rate , %
24.2%
7.2%
Oil sector growth rate , %
42.9%
8.3%
Non-oil sector growth rate , %
11.8%
5.6%
CPI, %
13.9%
3.6%
Growth rate of nominal incomes, %
31.8%
10.7%
Growth rate of nominal wage, %
27.0%
8.9%
Growth rate of budget expenditure, %
64.3%
6.8%
65%
14%
Growth rate of bank activities , %
Share of GDP utilization in the GDP (%)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
Last consumption
General collected
Net export
Statistical difference
Inflation and non-oil GDP
Inflation and non-oil GDP growth
24.0%
21.0%
20.8%
16.7%
18.0%
15.0%
11.8%
12.0%
15.7%
9.6%
6.0%
7.9%
11.3%
9.0%
8.3%
8.3%
3.2%
5.7%
3.0%
1.5%
0.0%
2005
2006
inlfation
2007
2008
2009
2010
non-oil GDP growth
6
The growth rate of salary in oil and nonoil sectors
Average monthly salary in oil and non-oil sectors (AZN)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Oil
2012
2013
2014
Non-oil
7
The poverty level, in percent
Azərbaycanda rəsmi yoxsulluq səviyyəsi (% )
50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
46.70%
44.70%
40.20%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
29.30%
21%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
15.80%
13.20%
11%
9.10%
5.00%
0.00%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
8
Multidimensional Poverty Index
Multidimensional Poverty Index, MPI
0.021
Poverty rate on MPI
5.4%
The number of population on MPI, mln., person
0.5
Poverty on income (1.25 $ per day)
2%
Poverty on income (2 $ per day)
2%
Official poverty level (2010)
Population (mln., 2010)
HDI, 2010
104 ölkə arasında
HDI status
9.1%
9.1
0.787
66
orta (medium)
9
De-industrialization trend in the composition of GDP (over sectors, %)
2014 (p)
6,50%
41,00%
8,60%
35,20%
8,70%
2013 (p)
6,80%
41,00%
8,80%
34,70%
8,70%
2012 (p)
6,80%
43%
2011(p)
6,80%
45,30%
2010
5,40%
52,60%
2009
6,70%
50,00%
2008
5,60%
2007
6,50%
59,50%
2006
7,10%
57,30%
2005
agriculture
industry
8,40%
31%
8,10%
7,50%
27,40%
7,40%
49,40%
20%
32,80%
9,00%
58,50%
9,20%
0%
8,80%
40%
construction
28%
7,00%
6,70%
7,70%
9,40%
60%
services
22%
7,10%
7,60%
6,70%
21%
6,60%
22,40%
5,50%
24,40%
80%
net taxes
7,60%
100%
Growth of non-oil investments, %
100
12000
Investment expenditures, mln AZN
81
9716
80
9074
10000
7359
2948
8000
60
2805
40
1985
36
6000
26
20
19
16
4000
6768
6269
5374
0
2000
2008
-20
0
2008
2009
non-oil
2010
oil
2009
-14
Private non-oil investments
Non-oil investments
2010
4.2
6.4
5.8
50.8
5.2
32.8
4.1
6.4
47.9
36.4
Internal resources of firms
Budget resources
Bank credtis
Private funds of households
Others
Internal resources of firms
Budget resources
Bank credtis
Private funds of households
Others
Structure of imports
machines and electrical equipments
black and bright metals
26.19%
28.83%
means of transportation
food products
consumption goods
2.49%
2.31%
furniture and its parts
0.76%
11.93%
0.78%
pharmaceutical goods
14.63%
12.07%
wood-derived materials
others
0.88%
0.73%
5.07%
Structure of Exports
0.22%
0.54%
6.02%
Raw oil
Processed oil materials
Chemical industry materials
Plant and animal fats
Bright and black metals
Fruits and vegetables
Others
86.53%
Years
2003
2007
2008
2009
2010
1220,9
6007,3
10763,0
10325,9
11 402,5
34,1
55
79,2
-4,1
10,4
470
3564
7299,6
6897
7177
4,5
35,8
58
104,8
-5,5
751
2443,3
3463,4
3429,0
32,9
51
41,8
-1,0
State budget
expenditure ,
mln.AZN
Growth rate, %
1235
6058,7
10680,0
10567,0
11 766,0
32,5
6,0
76,3
-1,9
12
Including
investment
expenditure,
mln.AZN
Growth rate, %
90
1915
4276,0
3177,0
4 147,0
16,3
2,2 times
2,1 times
-25,7
Incomes of state
budget, mln.AZN
Growth rate, %
Oil incomes,
mln.AZN
Growth rate, %
Non-oil incomes,
mln.AZN
Growth rate, %
4223
23,1
12000
Budget Revenues, mln AZN
11400
10300
10000
8000
7177 (63%)
6384 (62%)
6000
4223
3916
4000
2000
0
overall revenues
oil revenues
non-oil revenues
Budget Expenditures, mln AZN
3500
3345
3000
2500
2000
1316.3
792.1
897.6
1500
807.2
500
967.4
800.8
1000
800.4
761.1
777.2
320.4
180.5
0
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
14000
12000
Budget Expenses, mln AZN
11766
10503.9
10000
8000
7619
6936.6
6000
4147
4000
3567.3
2000
0
overall expenses
current expenses
capital expenses
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2007
account level
2008
onon-oil GDP growth
2009
inflation
2010
olending rates
Interest Rates
18.00%
16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
jan
feb
mar
apr
AZN Deposits
may
jun
USD Deposits
jul
AZN Credits
aug
sep
USD Credits
oct
nov
dec
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2007
Increase of assets
2008
Increase of credits
2009
Increase of deposits
2010
Increase of capital
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2007
return on assets
2008
2009
return on equity
2010
average return on interest
1.
Considering the risk of continuing growth rate of the economy
after 2011, the procyclic macroeconomic policy should be
replaced with the sustainable economic development-based
macro-economic policy; in addition, dependence of the
economic growth rate on crude oil prices should be gradually
neutralized;
2.
Problems in GDP structure, specifically the risks of determining
role of consupmtion and capital accumulation should be
considered in macroeconomic policy;
3.
Particular strategy should be developed for the development of
the agricultural sector and non-oil industry and the control over
the implementation of state programs should be accelerated;
4.
Business and investment climate should be developed in order
to further increase the share of non-oil sector in investments and
the GDP;
5.
New phase of government assistance to entrepreneurship
should be launched to Qeyri-neft ixrac potensialını və
vergitutma bazasını genişləndirmək üçün sahibkarlığa dövlət
köməyinin yeni mərhələsi başlanılmalı;
6.
Addressed “agitation” policy should be realized to decrease
the salaries difference between the economic sectors (for
example, application of alleviated tax and social payment
rates for the entities in the non-oil sector where salaries are
lower than in the oil sector);
7.
Improvement of the national accounting system and statistics
on macroeconomic indicators and poverty;
8.
Permanent and unchangable incomes approach should be
applied to the oil revenue expenditures, as envisaged in the
“Long-term strategy on oil and gas revenue management”;
9.
Financial policy directive, based on solid foundations, should be
adopted on “Fund-budget” relations münasibətləri and transfers from
SOFAZ should be limited to particular amount of its assets;
10.
Azerbaijani government should add a stronger strategic composition
to the budget and align the fiscal policy with the strategcy and
programs related to the medium and long-term development of the
country;
11.
Structural reforms should be undertaken in the state management,
decentralization policy should be expanded and financial
independence given to the health and educational institutions in the
first place in the frame of fiscal decentralization reforms in Azerbaijan;
12.
Classification of expenditures on paragraphs, articles and items subject
to ammendments according to the decision of the Cabinet of
Ministers on approval of the “Unified budget classification of
Azerbaijan Republic” should be complied with the real needs;
13.
Tax administration should be improved to increase the coefficient of direct
tax incomes collection in provision of state budget incomes; regulative and
stimulating, aside from fiscal functions of the taxes, should be strengthened
and the sources of tax debts emergence researched.
14.
The budget deficit, along with the other fiscal parameters, should also be
forecasted for the medium term period at the level, not harmful for the
macroeconomic stability and the sources of its coverage be complied with
the general fiscal policy;
15.
Considering that the increase of state expenditures is among the factors
seriously affecting the inflation, it is important that they grow in tact with
absorption capacity of the economy. Thus, the absorption capacity of the
economy should be considered in budget increases, alongside with the
principle of stability;
16.
Competitiveness in the bank sektor should be increased, power
concentration decreased and administrative distortion eliminated in the
credit market to manage the growing risks in the bank sector and prevent the
possible crisis.
Gubad Ibadoglu: [email protected]
Kenan Aslanli: [email protected]
Sohrab Farhadov: [email protected]
National Budget Group
Baki, Azerbaijan AZ 1065
44, Jafar Jabbarli str., Caspian Plaza 3, floor 9
Phone: (+99412) 437 18 20
E-mail: [email protected]
www.nbg.az
www.budget.az