Transcript Theory of Development

Development & Environment
Myths & Realities
By Garry Jacobs
The Mother’s Service Society
1
Options ?
 No
growth
 De-growth
 Growth
 Development
 Conscious Development or Evolution
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7,000
Worldof
Average
(Per Capita
GDP)
“500 years
progress
in 50
years”
In constant $2000 PPP
UNDP
World Average
PCI 1950-2000
World Average Per Capita GDP
6,000
Constant $2000 PPP
5,000
4,000
3,000
Geary-Khamis dollars
2,000
1,000
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50
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52
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60
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66
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68
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70
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84
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86
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90
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92
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94
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96
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98
20
00
20
02
0
3
PCI 2003
0%
518
601
655
871
994
1,040
1,102
1,268
1,372
1,881
2,147
2,536
2,617
2,953
3,295
30
3
36
0
43
5
46
4
49
6
56
0
61
3
64
3
65
8
70
1
81
7
85
4
91
1
90.0%
3,547
100.0%
3,768
90%
4,060
100%
4,937
PCI 2003
5,563
6,278
10.0%
6,805
7,233
7,674
8,915
10,145
13,807
16,360
70.0%
17,818
7
9,
06
4
7,
29
1
5,
99
6
4,
98
7
3,
84
6
3,
50
2
2,
81
7
2,
44
7
2,
30
8
2,
18
9
2,
10
4
1,
98
9
1,
91
6
1,
72
0
1,
62
3
1,
55
1
1,
36
5
1,
25
9
1,
15
1
1,
08
4
1,
05
2
1,
00
1
30
,3
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Cum Population %
80.0%
21,218
21,530
23,236
29,037
Cum Population %
PCI 1950
PCI Growth
73% of World Population had PCI
<$2000 (constant PPP)
Growth of real PCI 1950-2000
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
Average $2100
0.0%
PCI 1950
PCI Growth
Only 18% of World Population had
PCI <$2000 (constant PPP)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
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Pace of development is accelerating
Multiplication of real PCI (PPP) 1950-2000
Korea
Taiwan
Botswana
Japan
China & Thailand
Spain & Portugal
Ireland, Greece & Israel
Italy & Germany + 5
Indonesia, France, Turkey + 12
Brazil, Mexico, India, Pakistan, USA + 29
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18
12
11
8
7
6
5
4
3
5
Doubling real PCI took
UK
1780-1838
58 yrs
USA
1839-1886
47 yrs
Japan
1880-1920
40 yrs
World
1950-1973
23 yrs
India
1985-2001
16 yrs
China
1980-1992
12 yrs
Japan
1962-1971
9 yrs
Korea
1964-1971
7 yrs
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Perof
Capita
GDP (PPP)
1 AD&toWorld
2001
Growth
China,
India
PCI
1000-2000
$China
PPP) India
World Per Capita(Constant
GDP (PPP)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
Year
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
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Growth projections
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Qualitative development
Quality of products & services
 Freedom through democratization
 Human Rights
 Equality for Women
 Explosion of knowledge
 Spread of education
 Proliferation of skills
 Instantaneous global communication
 Faster, cheaper transportation
 Access to entertainment

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Unanswered Questions
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How can we explain the unprecedented progress since
1950?
What factors are responsible for accelerated development?
Are high growth rates sustainable?
What are the real limits to development?
What is the source of the repeated crises & threats to human
development?
Why is it that every time we solve one problem, weseem to
create another one?
If the world’s response to crisis is inadequate, are we capable
of a different response? If so, how would we define it?
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Do we as leaders of thought act differently in our own lives?
Limits to Development
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Population Projections
9 billion
6.7 billion
1 billion
More education
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Limits to Development
Viewing development as a physical
process, the limits are apparent
Land
Malthus on Population
 Food
 Water
 Energy
 Pollution
 Climate Change

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Population Explosion

Result of rapid unidimensional advances in
medical & agricultural technology


Saved 100 million lives in India b/n 1950-1980
Malthus did not conceive of
Birth Control
 Green Revolution
 Impact of education & income on birth rates


Problems created in one way are often solved in
another way
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World Food Production Index 1961-2003
Food Production
170%
40%
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The Food Challenge Remains
Food challenge remains
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Comparative Tomato Yields
tons per acre

California avg
40

California high
60

India
10

S. India high
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Global Water Consumption
7 fold increase since 1900
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Excess Water Supply
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Water Demand
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Scope for Water Conservation

80% of water in India is consumed for agriculture

Water productivity in agriculture is extremely low

California farmer produces 35 x more cotton/liter of H20

Furrow irrigation reduces water consumption 50-70%

Deep chiseling can 2x yields & half water usage

RWH can replenish 10 yrs consumption in one year

Normally takes 1000 liters of water per kg of vegetables,
but Dutch have done it with 1.4 liters.
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Tomato with furrows in TN
Improved technology consumed 1/3rd of the water
Achieved 3.2 x higher yield (38 tons)
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10-fold increase in water productivity
Coal Problem
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William Stanley Jevons 1835-82
In 1865 UK led the world in GDP and per capita
income & produced 60% of the world’s coal output.
Jevons foresaw severe coal shortages
Recommended mass emigration to USA & Australia
UK coal consumption is now



10% of the peak level in 1913
25% of the level in 1975
7% of total UK energy
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Energy Consumption & GDP per capita
40-50%
lower
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Energy Intensity 1980-2000
Global energy
Constant
$$ PPP
Constant PPP $
Constant
intensity$$toPPP
decline 50%
by 2030 (IEA)
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McKinsey Energy Studies

Investment in energy efficiency can half the
growth in global energy demand, equivalent to
$900 billion in savings a year from 2020.
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Resources
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What is a resource?
 Resources
are inputs for
carrying out any activity.
 Mind discovering a use for
anything creates a resource.
 Resources make other
resources more productive.
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Silicon
Sand
 Bricks
 Cement
 Glass
 Transistors
 Fiber optics
 Integrated circuits

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Physical Resources
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Land
Water
Minerals
Coal
Oil
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydrogen
Non-renewable – finite, scarce
Renewable – Abundant
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Social or Organizational Resources
Organizations multiply human productivity
 Language
 Law
 Markets
 Money
 Media
 Green Revolution
 Education
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Gap in Education - India Vs Higher countries - 2004
Values
Educational Potential
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
170
107
100
118
106
82
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India
Top Performer
World Average
89
78
52
11
24
Adult Literacy (%) GER - Primary GER - Secondary GER - Tertiary
Gross
Enrollment Level
Parameters
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Mental Resources
Technology
Information
Knowledge
Creativity
“Unlike material resources, information &
knowledge are not lost when you give
them away.”
Harlan Cleveland
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Internet as Mental Organization
 Internet
multiplies human capabilities &
extends social organization 1000-fold
 Global
social networking
 Global access to information
 Global free communication
 Global transactions
 The
potential impact on productivity of
resources & quality of life is incalculable
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Psychological Resources
 Rising
expectations
 Skills & capacities
 Culture
 Values
 Trust
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Theory of Resources
Vast potential to increase resource productivity &
decrease resource consumption (waste)
 Non-physical resources enhance productivity of
physical resources
 Non-material resources become increasingly
important at higher levels of development
 Non-material resources are essentially unlimited in
potential
 Human beings are the only real resource

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Does the requirement of the sustainable world
imply limit to growth and development?

Creative capacity of human beings implies a
possibility of a continuous increase of human capital
and social capital and of increasing freedom and
number of options.

The greatest obstacles are individual and social
inner limits - psychological, cultural and political.
“The most valuable assets humankind can count
on..to stop the decline and to prepare for the future
are to be found in the still untapped resources of
comprehension, vision and creativity..inherent in
every human being.”
A. Peccei, Agenda for the End of the Century
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Why do humans create problems?
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We learn by trial & error – “evolving from unconsciousness
& ignorance to knowledge”
Our approach to knowledge is fragmented &
compartmentalized, focused on the part, not the whole
We know more about the world around us, than about
ourselves. We are unconscious of the process of how we
learn, change and develop
Our motive for learning is largely personal & selfinterested, rather than objective and rational
We are ourselves products of nature’s evolution which is
subconscious. Can we become conscious of the process
of social evolution by which we change?
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New Paradigm
“We need a totally new paradigm for
solving problems through knowledge
without creating other problems in the
process.”
Pushpa Bhargava
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Conclusions
Development challenges & threats come to make
us more conscious
 Humanity evolves by becoming more conscious &
developing more effective social organization
 The increasing rates of development are due to a
progressive evolution of mental consciousness
 The threat of climate change compels us to
accelerate that evolution of consciousness & to
evolve effective social organization at the global
level

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Need for a theory of social evolution
“Thinking on development is the greatest
intellectual challenge of the coming
years.”
Boutros Boutros Ghali
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