Transcript Kazakhstan Dairy Investment Opportunities

National export and investment agency “KAZNEX INVEST” JSC
Ministry for investment and development of the Republic of
Kazakhstan
Acquisition and greenfield investment
opportunities in dairy producing
industry in Kazakhstan





Vast farmland areas
Agriculture with a potential to increase efficiency
Market potential for processed food
Significant market consolidation potential
Acquisition
and
greenfield
investment
opportunities with the range of 0,5 – 20 mln. USD
January 2016
This Presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to the public in any jurisdiction to purchase any shares or assets of any
Company, and does not constitute or form any part of any offer or invitation to purchase shares, nor shall it or any part of it form
the basis of, or be relied upon, in any way in connection with any contract or investment decision relating to any shares. Information
contained herein should be treated as confidential. Copying or distributing without prior written consent from Kaznex Invest is
prohibited.
CONFIDENTIAL
Confidential
1
Agenda
1. Executive summary and basic information
2. Dairy production
3. Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities
CONFIDENTIAL
2
Executive summary
Kazakhstan is a dynamically developing economy with favorable demographics and low public debt
Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia. The country has got vast oil reserves, deposits of metals
and robust agricultural potential with lands suitable for both livestock and grain production.
Kazakhstan dynamic economic growth
Executive summary
 Growing demand in regional and domestic markets for higher value and quality food products of packaged
food, branded products and retail private labels is an outcome of Kazakhstan’s growing economy and
increasing disposable incomes;
 Kazakhstan has a potential of a springboard for expanding into the entire Central Asian, Caucasus, China and
India regions with combined GDP of more that USD 16 trillion, acting as an agricultural hub for the macro
region;
 Attractiveness of the end-consumer market as Kazakhstan represents a relatively large mid-income market
with GDP per capita of USD 12,950 in 2014 corresponds to that of most of the benchmark countries.
Kazakh potential in agriculture
 Strong potential for the development of agribusiness in Kazakhstan due to country’s considerable land
resources, as Kazakhstan has the world’s 12th largest arable land area, and fifth in the world in terms of
pastureland of 182.2 million hectares, but it uses only about 30% of the pastures;
 Kazakhstan plays an important role in ensuring food security in Central Asia. Taking into account the
interaction within the Organization of the Islamic food security, the possibilities of Kazakhstan in this area will
increase significantly;
 Agricultural development program “Agribusinesses 2020” includes state support directed at small, medium
and large farms to improve their effectiveness and develop the sector as a broad level;
 The special program of Plan of the Nations “100 Steps” is being implemented to address the problem of
livestock forage and crop production as well as specifically highlights importance to improve the quality of
the meat and dairy goods.
Summary of projects on Dairy production
Capex
required
10 m USD
Summary of projects
11
5 m USD
13
3 m USD
17
1 m USD
15
16
13
Page number
Greenfield
Brownfield
14
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3
Kazakhstan’s economy and
basic market data
Kazakhstan is a dynamically developing economy with favorable demographics and low public debt
Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia. The
country has got vast oil reserves, deposits of metals and
robust agricultural potential with lands suitable for
both livestock and grain production.
Kazakhstan’s economy
Economic growth
 Since 2000 Kazakhstan’s economy has been
growing dynamically (among the world’s fastest
developing countries)
 Average GDP growth rate of 7.7% in years 20002014.
 GDP increase has been driven by favorable market
prices for Kazakhstan’s leading exports – oil, metals
and grain.
GDP growth rate (%)
9.8
13.5
9.8
9.6
9.3
9.7 10.7 8.9
2000
2002
2004
2006
5.0
1.2
2008
2010
6.0
4.3
2012
2014
USD/KZT
190
170
150
130
110
KZT devaluation
KZT devaluation
2006
Demographics
2008
2010
2012
2014
Age structure (ths)
 Population of 17.3 million in 2013 expected to
increase to 18.7 million by 2020
90 - 94
75 - 79
60 - 64
45 - 49
30 - 34
15 - 19
0-4
Male
 Favorable age structure implies a steadily increasing
demand for meat and agricultural products
 Median population age is at 29 years (compared to
46 in Germany, 38 in Poland, 31 in Brazil)
900
Public debt
 Kazakhstan has been the first former Soviet republic
to repay all of its debt to the IMF, 7 years ahead of
schedule
 In 2014 Kazakhstan sold first overseas dollar bonds
in 14 years, issuing USD 2.5bn of 10- and 30-year
bonds
600
300
0
Female
0
300
600
900
Public debt (% of GDP)
15.5
11.4
8.1
 The public debt of Kazakhstan since 2011 remains
stable between 12-14%
Basic information
7.5
7.3
3.3
2004
10.2
6.7
2006
5.9
13.8
12.6 13.2
12.1
6.7
2008
2010
2012
2014
Basic information
Public debt
 Total area: 2,7 mln. km2 (9th largest in the world);
 Official language: Kazakh, Russian;
 Currency: Tenge (₸) KZT);
 Capital: Astana;
 Largest city: Almaty;
 Administrative division: 14 regions + 2 cities of republican
significance;
 Membership in the organizations: UN, IMF, WB, OSCE, OIC,
WTO.
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Kazakhstan’s food
processing industry
Market data and value
Market data and value
For the period 2010-2014 gross production of the
agriculture goods in Kazakhstan increased by 1,5 times
and reached 8 bln. USD in 2014.
Growth and investment attractiveness
 Agro sector is becoming more competitive and
export-oriented. Since 2010 export of agriculture
commodities and processed products has
increased by 1,5 time and reached 2,6 bln. USD.
 Food processing total turnover for the year 2014
reached import and export indicators in the year
2015 were 2,9 and 1,1 bln. USD respectively
 FDI inflow to the sector increased by 2 times and
reached 894,5 mln. USD in 2014, out of which FDI
into the food processing industry was about 219,4
mln. USD.
 Currently there are about 1 689 enterprises of small
medium and large sizes operating in the sector of
food processing in the country
 Local market provision with domestically
produced main categories of goods was around
80%.
 Average production capacity for companies in 7
subsectors of food processing was around 42%,
varying from lowest 16,2% in vegetables processing
to highest 66,2% in production of canned meat
 As of 2014 overall food processing industry of the
country increased by 2,9% and reached over 5,5
bln. USD.
Agro strategy of Kazakhstan
Agro strategy of Kazakhstan
Strategy “Kazakhstan - 2050”
10 priority subsectors of
 To increase the level of state support for agriculture by 4,5 time
by 2020;
agriculture and food
 To increase the agro contribution to GDP of the country by 5
times by 2050.
Strategy “Agrobusiness - 2020”
 Investment subsidies to subsectors of crop production and
animal feedlots;
 Investment subsidies;
of raw materials for
 Meat processing
 Production of fats
 Deep processing of grain
 Fruits and vegetables processing
 Confectionery
 Fish processing
 Lowering interest rate on credit lines and lease;
 Subsidies for purchase
companies;
 Milk processing
processing
 Exemption from income tax on income of smallholders;
 Processing of hides
 Sugar production
 Wool processing
 Subsidies for the paid VAT
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Acquisition and greenfield
investment opportunities
Allocation of investment opportunities with regard to country’s regions
Allocation of investment opportunities with regard to country’s regions
Diary farm on goat milk production, greenhouse
complex on vegetables and flowers, crude grass fiber
production opportunities exist in West Kazakhstan
region
The major meat production and
diary production projects are
concentrated in Akmola region.
Almaty region is famous for its agricultural
complexes, which produce wide variety of meat
products, diary and wheat processing facilities.
Confectionary
and
diary
production is concentrated in
Aktobe region
CONFIDENTIAL
Kyzylorda region -vegetable
crops production, poultry and
diary production
6
Agenda
1. Executive summary and basic information
2. Dairy production
3. Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities
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Dairy production market data
and financials
Dairy production in Kazakhstan grows slowly but at a stable pace
Dairy production market is developing at a stable
pace, slower then the country’s economy and
slower than the growth in domestic meat
consumption. Between 2010-2014 this sector recorded
an average growth rate of 2.3% annually
Milk production structure (ths tons)
Milk production
 82% of meat in Kazakhstan is produced on small
farms and the production is scattered around the
country
 Generally, there is significant milk production
deficit in the country
 There is a slight increase towards mils import to the
country
Milk deficit in the Kazakh market provides an opportunity for dairy importers
Dairy production
 The average annual growth rate of milk
consumption per capita since 2011 was 7.7%.
Drinking milk products consumption culture in
Kazakhstan is not mature and is mostly associated
with tradition of drinking milk with tea, making local
dishes, for breakfast and before dinner.
Average annual growth rate of dairy
production for the period 2009-2014
 Sour milk products consumption is deep in Kazakh
tradition. Sour milk products is the most often
consumed dairy products by Kazakhs.
 In 2014, cheese consumption was increasing in
Kazakhstan largely because of increasing innovation
and many new products being launched.
Dairy products consumption dynamics
for the period 2009-2014
 Retail volume faster than the 3% value CAGR of
2013. sales of cheese grew by 4% in 2014, which was.
 Other dairy in Kazakhstan presented wide range of
assortment and innovation in 2014. Chilled desserts is
rich in variety and able to satisfy different consumer
needs and age groups. Moreover, chilled desserts is
often accompanied by muesli, crisps and pieces of
fruit.
Government support includes mainly direct payment subsidies to farmers
The main goal of recent government support is to increase the domestic livestock output:
 Subsidies to cut feed cost for animal production up to 45% – granted directly to farmers to reduce the cost of
feed
 Subsidies to reduce the breeding cattle purchase prices up to 50% – granted depending on the cattle’s
country of origin
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 Investment subsidies for construction of feedlots
and meat processing plants, up to 50% and 30% respectively
Main producers and contact for
dairy production
The largest producers of dairy products are private companies and potential acquisition targets
Key producers
Producer
Market share
Region
Agroproduct company
25
Almaty
Vostok - Moloko
19
East-Kazakhstan region
Amil LLP
19
Bagration
7
East-Kazakhstan region
East-Kazakhstan region
Investment hypothesis
 Dairy production market is among the fastest growing food processing industries
in Kazakhstan. Despite the significant growth, production deficit is still substantial in the country
 The market of dairy production in Kazakhstan is highly fragmented with a significant consolidation
potential for the investors
 Among the subsectors of dairy production with highest development potential are cheese production,
yogurt and sour milk production, as well as production of cream freshener and cottage cheese.
Contact
Contact information
Veronika Yun
Manager at the Department on Pre-investment affairs, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC
Mob: +7 771 805 4083
E-mail: [email protected]
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Agenda
1. Executive summary and basic information
2. Dairy production
3. Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities
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0
Project information
Phase-1 and Phase-2 of existing Dairy Farm with 1 800 heads of cows
Expansion planning
Project cost: USD 5-15 mln.
Location: Akmola region
Implementation period: 2016
Project scope: Phase-1 of Milk division consists of an
import of 500 heifers from Ukraine as to bring the existing
farm to its full capacity. Phase-2 consists of constructing
additional 600 heads capacity extension of the existing
dairy farm (to reach new installed capacity of 1 800 dairy
cow heads) and import of 600 heifers in the following
years.
Finished product: Milk
Production capacity: 1 800 heads of cattle, 10.5 mln liters
of raw milk per annum
Potential markets: local market of Kazakhstan, Eurasian
union
Provision of land and premises: initiator owns a dairy
farm complex with installed dairy cow capacity of 1 200
head of cows. The farm currently houses only 688 dairy
cows and 500 calves. The farm produces raw milk, livestock
(calves and bulls), as well as organic fertilizers
Required financing: USD 9,3 mln.
Required investor type:
☑ Equity
☐ Debt
Project initiator
Company
name
Esil
Agro
Holding
Year
of
establishment
2004
Presence
on
the market:
2004
Developed
brands:
“Aina”
Current
operation:
Production of
dairy
and
poultry,
and
production of
agricultural
commodity of
grain
☐ Technology transfer
☐ Other
Project profitability for the period of 8 years (in th. USD)
Project profitability
Indicator
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Revenue
COGS
3 318
2 609
5 845
3 814
7 998
4 833
9 287
5 316
9 783
5 550
9 908
5 657
9 918
5 714
10 121
5 831
Taxes
Net profit
63
1 145
89
1 942
99
3 066
97
3 874
95
4 138
92
4 159
90
4 114
87
4 206
Project profitability
Project capex
USD 9,3 mln.
Project NPV (8 years)
USD 4,5 mln.
Project IRR
26%
Payback Period
3,3 years
Payback Period disc.
4 years
Contact
Contact information
Veronika Yun
Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture
and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC
Mob: +7 771 805 4083
E-mail: [email protected]
Project initiator’s contacts:
Esil Agro Holding
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1
Project information
Establishment of new dairy farm
Project cost: USD 0-5 mln.
Location: Aktobe region, Kargaly region, Kosistek village
Implementation period: 2016-2018
Project scope: to invest in the organization of milk based
farm, which will help to eradicate the problem of quality of
milk products and resolve food security issue in the Aktobe
region, by the means pf providing quality dairy products
for the population of the region
Finished product: Packaged meat products and milk
products
Production capacity: up to 50 tones of milk and 10-15
tones of meat
Potential markets: Primarily domestic market
Provision of land and premises: initiator of project owns
1,500 m square farm complex, which consists of 2
bedroom house for the employees, food warehouses,
stables for animals and main office building. Additionally
the initiator of the project owns 765 hectares of pasture
land. Raw materials are not outsourced but produced
internally within the premises of the farm
Required financing: USD 0,45 mln.
Required investor type:
☑ Equity
☑ Debt
Project initiator
Company
name
“Janaturmys”
Farm
Cooperative
Year of
establishment
2002
Presence on
the market:
2002
Current
operation:
Production
of
dairy and meat
products,
and
production
of
agricultural
commodity
of
fodder
☐ Technology transfer
☐ Other
Project profitability
Project profitability for the period of 10 years (in th. USD)
Indicator
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Gross profit
757
773
790
807
825
843
861
880
899
EBITDA
Interest
752
99
768
82
785
66
802
49
820
33
838
19
856
13
875
6
894
0
Taxes
Net profit
41
551
44
582
46
613
49
644
51
676
53
705
55
728
57
751
58
775
Project profitability
Project capex
USD 0,45 mln.
Discount factor
4%
Project NPV (10 years)
USD 0,55 mln.
Payback Period
2,2 years
Project IRR
29%
Payback Period disc.
3,2 years
Contact
Contact information
Veronika Yun
Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture
and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC
Mob: +7 771 805 4083
E-mail: [email protected]
Project initiator’s contacts:
Almaty Region, Karatal District, Ushtobe City, 3 Suyunbay
street
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2
Project information
“Enbek” Farm Cooperative meat and milk producer from horse and goat
Project cost: USD 5-15 mln.
Location:
Akmola
region,
Stepnogorsk
town
Implementation period: 2016
Project scope: production of meat and dairy products
from horse and goat domestic animals. Currently the farm
cooperative produces 290 tones of horse milk, 1000 tones
of goat milk, 75 tones of horse meat and 53 tones of goat
meat.
Finished product: Packaged horse meat and milk;
packaged goat meat and milk
Production capacity: 290 tones of horse milk; 1000 tones
of goat milk; 75 tones of horse meat and 53 tones of goat
meat p/a.
Potential markets: Primarily domestic market
Provision of land and premises: initiator of the project
owns 560 hectares of farm facilities. The local governing
body provides 8300 hectares of pasture land for the needs
of the project. the farm owns 560 hectares of pasture land.
The local municipality provides additional 8300 hectares of
land for the needs of the project.
Required financing: USD 4,5 mln.
Required investor type:
☑ Equity
☑ Debt
Project initiator
Company
name
«Enbek»
Farm
Cooperative
Year
of
establishment
2011
Presence on
the market:
2011
Current
operation:
production
of
meat and dairy
products
from
horse and goat
domestic
animals. Project
documentation
is
being
developed
for
the project
☐ Technology transfer
☐ Other
Project profitability for the period of 7 years (in mln. USD)
Project profitability
Indicator
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Revenue
2,2
2,8
3,1
3,2
3,9
4,0
Gross Profit
0,7
2,2
2,5
2,6
3,3
3,3
Project profitability
Project capex
USD 3,3 mln.
Project IRR
30%
ROE
Payback Period
Payback Period disc.
16%
2,5 years
2,9 years
Contact
Contact information
Veronika Yun
Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture
and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC
Mob: +7 771 805 4083
E-mail: [email protected]
Project initiator’s contacts:
«Enbek» Farm Cooperative
Akmola region, Stepnogorsk town
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3
Project information
Establishing Dairy farm
Project cost: USD 0-5 mln.
Location: Almaty region, Yeskeldi District, Baktibay village
Implementation period: 2016-2022
Project scope: Horse breeding and Mare’s milk farm. This
project is intended to ensure food security of the Almaty
region.
Finished product: Kumis, horse meet
Production capacity: 45 tons of horse meet, 840 000 liters
of mare’s milk
Potential markets: local market of Kazakhstan, and CIS
countries
Provision of land and premises: Initiator owns 700 head
cattle base, 100 hectares of land, agricultural complex with
water, electricity, heating infrastructure, roads and farm
machinery. Raw materials of cattle fodder will be bought
from local farms.
Required financing: USD 0,9 mln.
Required investor type:
☑ Equity
☑ Debt
Project initiator
Company
name
Uştöbe-Aydin
LLP
Year
of
establishment
2002
Presence on
the market:
2002
Current
operation:
Agricultural
complex on
production of
dairy
products
☐ Technology transfer
☐ Other
Project profitability for the period of 5 years (in USD)
Project profitability
Year 1
Sales
COGS
EBITDA
Taxes
Net profit
150 000
117 403
32 597
2 136
8 542
Year 2
Year 3
158 940
123 706
35 234
3 250
13 002
Year 4
225 750
132 011
93 739
15 562
62 249
Year 5
268 568
138 891
129 677
23 353
93 414
Total
226 500
148 216
78 284
13 672
54 686
1 029 758
660 227
369 531
57 973
231 893
Project profitability
Project capex
875 000 USD
Discount factor
8%
Project NPV
450 000 USD
Project ROI
41,0%
Project IRR
20,5%
Payback Period
3,7 years
Contact
Contact information
Veronika Yun
KAZNEX INVEST, JSC
+7 7172 91 90 40 (int. 1124)
E-mail: [email protected]
Project initiator’s contacts:
Almaty Region, Yeskeldi district
Uştöbe-Aydin LLP
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4
Project information
Establishment of the Dairy Farm with 600 heads of cows and modernization
of the existing dairy plant for the production of European quality cheeses
Project cost: USD 5-15 mln.
Location: Almaty region, Raimbek District, Kegen village
Implementation period: 2016
Project scope: production of hard and soft types of
cheese as well as dietary products for children and adults.
This project is intended to ensure food security of the
Almaty region and Almaty city with the management of
the entire chain of production from livestock fodder to
finished packaged products for retail
Finished product: Cheeses
Production capacity: up to 1 000 tons of cheese (hard,
ricotta, mozzarella and albumin cottage cheese ) annually
Potential markets: local market of Kazakhstan, Eurasian
union, China
Provision of land and premises: initiator owns 2,064
hectares of agricultural lands for fodder farming, including
500 hectares of non-irrigated arable land, 384 hectares of
hayfields and 1180 hectares of pastures. There is fully
equipped 1000 sq.m. of processing facilities and 250 sq.m.
food warehouses
Required financing: USD 1,5 mln.
Required investor type:
☑ Equity
☐ Debt
Project initiator
Company
name
«ASU LTD» LLP
Year
of
establishment
2004
Presence on
the market:
2006
Developed
brands:
«Live», «Protonic»,
«Ace» and «Altyn
Kese
(Golden
Cup)"
Total
assets:
USD 7 mln
fixed
Current
operation:
Company
had
temporally
stopped
its
operations due to
absence
of
required financing
resources
☐ Technology transfer
☐ Other
Project profitability
Project profitability for the period of 10 years (in th. USD)
Indicato
r
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Gross profit
1 733
6 791
6 648
9 829
10 971
10 942
12 569
14 865
17 077
EBITDA
Interest
1 093
428
4 858
481
4 733
431
7 717
351
8 660
271
8 534
190
10 022
143
11 988
95
13 800
48
Taxes
Net profit
1 497
168
6 782
190
4 084
350
6 988
401
7 962
398
7 920
478
9 376
582
11 286
678
13 051
Project profitability
Project capex
USD 8,9 mln.
WACC
6,89%
Project NPV (10 years)
USD 32 mln.
Payback Period
4,1 years
Project IRR
37,35%
Payback Period disc.
4,5 years
Contact
Contact information
Veronika Yun
Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture
and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC
Mob: +7 771 805 4083
E-mail: [email protected]
Project initiator’s contacts:
ASU Ltd
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5
Project information
Establishment of the dairy farm on goat milk production
Project cost: USD 0-5 mln.
Location: West-Kazakhstan region, Zelenovsky district,
Shapovo village
Implementation period: 2016
Project scope: construction of the Dairy farm on goat milk
production with its further processing and production of
goat cheese
Finished product: Goat milk and cheese
Production capacity: 750 heads of goats and 182 500
liters of goat milk per annum
Potential markets: local market of Kazakhstan, Russia
Provision of land and premises: initiator owns a dairy
farm complex with installed space of 1 200 sq. m.,
production building of 450 sq. m. necessary agricultural
equipment, as well as completed warehouse for ready
products.
Required financing: USD 0,2 mln.
Required investor type:
☑ Equity
☐ Debt
Project initiator
Company
name
Bisekesh
farm
cooperative
Year of
establishment
2013
Presence on
the market:
2013
Developed
brands:
Current
operation:
Production
of dairy
products
☐ Technology transfer
☐ Other
Project profitability
Project profitability for the period of 8 years (in th. USD)
Indicator
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Revenue
COGS
Taxes
Net profit
88
25
6,3
56,7
191
39
15,2
136,8
408
57
35,1
315,9
1 013
98
91,5
823,5
1 013
98
91,5
823,5
1 013
98
91,5
823,5
1 114
129
98,5
924,5
1 114
129
98,5
924,5
Project profitability
Project capex
USD 0,2 mln.
ROI
84%
Project NPV (8 years)
USD 0,16 mln.
ROE
41%
Project IRR
46,6%
Payback Period
2,3 years
Contact
Contact information
Veronika Yun
Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture
and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC
Mob: +7 771 805 4083
E-mail: [email protected]
Project initiator’s contacts:
Bisekesh farm cooperative
Bisekesh Beibit
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6
Project information
Establishment of modern dairy farm
Project cost: USD 0-5 mln.
Location: Kyzylorda region, Karaultyubinski region
Implementation period: 2016
Project scope: Construction of the modern dairy farm
with the scope of producing wide range of dairy products
with annual capacity of 7 800 tons.
Finished product: dairy products
Production capacity: 7 800 tons annually
Potential markets: mainly Kyzylorda region and close by
regions
Provision of land and premises: initiator owns the land
and real estate necessary to build the farm
Required financing: USD 1,75 mln.
Required investor type:
☑ Equity
☐ Debt
Project initiator
Company
name
Djumanbekov
Farm
cooperative
Year of
establishment
2015
Presence on
the market:
-
Current
operation:
This
is
a
greenfield
project,
thus
no operations
a re currently
undertakes
☐ Technology transfer
☐ Other
Project profitability
Project profitability
Project profitability
As for confidentiality terms, additional information on financial model and
project documentation will be provided upon personal request
Contact
Contact information
Veronika Yun
Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture
and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC
Mob: +7 771 805 4083
E-mail: [email protected]
Project initiator’s contacts:
Djumanbekov Farm cooperative
CONFIDENTIAL
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