Transcript SCENARIOS TO 2050 (PowerPoint/2.38MB)

Energy Needs, Choices
and Possibilities
Scenarios to 2050
Peter Snowdon
Senior Energy Consultant
Royal Dutch/Shell Group
© Shell International Ltd.
Introduction
World faces fundamental energy challenge.
Complex interplay between:
-Social, political and market developments.
-Scientific and technical advances.
Energy companies vital role in delivering sustainable solutions – part of solution!
Shell’s Long Term Energy Scenarios put forward two possibilities for energy mix over the
next half century.
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"Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply"
"EU's long-term strategy for energy supply security must be geared to ensuring, for the well
being of its citizens and the proper functioning of the economy, the uninterrupted physical
availability of energy products on the market, at a price which is affordable for all
consumers, while respecting environmental concerns and looking towards sustainable
development".
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Shell’s Long Term Energy Scenarios
What energy needs, choices and possibilities will shape a global energy system which halts
the rise in human-induced carbon dioxide emissions within the next 50 years – leading to a
stabilising of atmospheric carbon levels below 550 ppmv – without jeopardising economic
development?
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The first step
These scenarios map a journey to 2050.
The journey starts now.
Decisions made today influence future.
Scenarios inform on the future context.
Scenarios inform today’s choices.
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Challenging Assumptions with Scenarios
- Alternative stories of future.
- Not predictions/forecasts.
- Credible stories ask “what if”, “how”.
- Forces pushing along different paths?
- Common language/framework/context.
- Help managers plan for different futures:
- Dynamics of business environment
- Critical uncertainties
- New possibilities
- Strategic options - decisions
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Scenarios and Business Strategy
Focus of LTES Scenarios
To 2050:
“Explore”
To 2020:
“Grow”
Emerging
growth engines
Short Term:
“Execute”
Future
technology
& business
options;
climate
change
implications
Core
Business
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The contributors by 2050
• demography: 8-10 billion people
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The contributors by 2050
• demography: 8-10 billion people
•
urbanisation: 80% living in cities
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The contributors by 2050
• demography: 8-10 billion people
•
urbanisation: 80% living in cities
• incomes: average $15-25k/capita
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The First Rung of the Energy Ladder
• Two billion people
are cooking with
traditional fuels.
• Three billion
people are just
meeting basic
energy requirements
Source: UNDP
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Climbing The Energy Ladder
A Continuously Changing Relationship
GJ/capita
• +$25k/capita:
little extra energy needed.
350
US
300
Australia
250
200
EU
150
Korea
100
China
Source: IMF, BP
Japan
• +$5k/capita:
industrialisation and
mobility take off.
Mexico
Brazil
India
50
0
• +$15k/capita:
services start to dominate
growth.
• +$10k/capita:
industrialisation near
complete.
Thailand
0
5
10
15
20
GDP/capita (‘000 1997$ PPP)
25
30
35
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The contributors by 2050
• demography: 8-10 billion people
•
urbanisation: 80% living in cities
• incomes: average $15-25k/capita
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The contributors by 2050
• demography: 8-10 billion people
•
urbanisation: 80% living in cities
• incomes: average $15-25k/capita
•
liberalisation: market possibilities
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The contributors by 2050
• demography: 8-10 billion people
•
urbanisation: 80% living in cities
• incomes: average $15-25k/capita
•
liberalisation: market possibilities
• demand (2-3 times increase)
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Energy Demand Boundaries
Average GJ per capita
200
Year 2050
150
100
On-going competition
between new fuel supply and
efficiency investment bounds
energy demand and prices
50
Year 2000
0
0
10
20
30
GDP per capita (‘000 1997 $ PPP)
40
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The contributors
• demography
• incomes
• urbanisation
• liberalisation
The critical
• Resource constraints
• Technology
• Social and personal priorities
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Resource: The Oil Mountain
million bbls per day
125
100
75
Ultimate
Recoverable
Resource
2% per
annum
3,000 bln bbls
+ 350 bln bbls
of NGLs
7.5% per
annum
50
+ 850 bln bbls
heavy oil and
bitumen
25
excluding shales
0
1950
Source: based on USGS mean estimates, June, 2000
1975
2000
2025
2050
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Resource: The Gas Mountain
EJ
400
+ 13,000 EJ
(2200 bln boe)
unconventional
300
+ 5,000 EJ
(1000 bln boe)
3% per
annum
200
4% per
annum
100
0
1950
1975
Source: based on USGS mean estimates, June 2000
and IPCC 2000 for unconventional
15,000 EJ
(2,600 bln boe)
2000
2025
2050
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Resource: Where it is
Security through:
Norway
• storage
• long term contracts
Russia
• inter-country agreements
• fuel-switching
• LNG
LNG
Algeria
CIS/ME
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Resource: Renewables
GJ per capita
1000
800
600
Hydro
400
Wind
Demand
Range
Solar
Geothermal
200
0
Source:adapted from UN 2000, WEC 1994, and ABB 1998.
Figures based on 10 billion people.
Biomass
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Resource: Europe Renewables Estimates
GJ per capita
125
Hydro
100
Wind
75
Solar
50
Geothermal
25
Biomass
0
Shell
ABB
Source:adapted from UN WEA 2000, WEC 1994, and ABB 1998.
Figures based on 0.6 billion people.
WEC
UN WEA
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Resource: Europe Leads Wind Power Expansion
Cumulative GW
1995 (5 GW)
80
2000 (18 GW)
60
2005 (58 GW)
40
2010 (145 GW)
20
0
Europe
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2001
North
America
Asia
Rest of
World
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The critical
• Resource constraints
• Technology
• Social and personal priorities
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Technology: Discontinuities
1800
Direct - Wood, Wind, Water, Animals
Steam engine - Coal 1830-1900
1850
Electric dynamo - Coal 1900-1940
Internal combustion engine - Oil
1910-1970
1900
Nuclear 1970-1990
CCGT - Gas 1990-?
2000
MANUFACTURING ADVANTAGE
2050
Fuel Cell
Hydrogen
Direct Electricity
Solar
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Technology: The Benefits of Scale
$ per peak watt
6
Materials and
balance of System
3 fold reduction
5
4
Other BOS
Inverter
Other Panel
3
Materials
2
Plant
8 fold
reduction
1
Overhead
Labour
Plant
0
Source: KPMG, 1999
20 MW Plant
1999
200 MW Plant
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Technology: Efficiency
Aluminium Prodn.
Paper Pulp Prodn.
Washing Machines
Domestic Lighting
“Best Demonstrated“ lighting
requires 1/3 current
consumption
Refrigerators
0
20
40
60
Best Demonstrated as a % of Current Consumption
Source: OECD, Global Warming, Economic Dimensions and Policy Responses, 1996
80
100
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What Shapes Long Term Energy?
The critical
• Resource constraints
• Technology
• Social and personal priorities
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Social and Personal Priorities: Choice
“Renewable energy should add to energy security and economic and social
cohesion”
Loyola de Palacio
EU VP Transport and Energy, Jan 2000
“I don’t want 7 plugs and 5 batteries -- I want a simple, hidden energy source that
goes with me everywhere”
Wired Magazine, 1999
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Energy Branching Points
demographics
Dynamics as Usual
urbanisation
Resource
constraints
Technologies
Social &
personal
priorities
Innovation
and
competition
incomes & demand
liberalisation
The Spirit of the
Coming Age
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Dynamics as Usual - Timeline
- Need for clean, secure, sustainable energy push a
path to Renewables.
- Supported by gas in the medium term.
- Vehicle efficiency advances prolongs oil use.
2005 Hybrid vehicles proliferate
2010 “Dash for Gas”
2015 Oil price decline triggers resource expansion
2020 OECD renewables stall at 20% of electricity supply
Gas security concerns emerge
2030 New nuclear stalls
Next generation of renewables emerges
2040 Oil scarcity drives biofuels expansion
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US Petrol Demand
Decoupling from Income
Index 1950=100
350
300
GDP
per capita
250
200
150
Gasoline sales
per capita
100
1950
Source: US EIA, 1999
1970
1990
2010
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Rising Health Concerns of Ageing
OECD Populations
% of UK popn. indicating most important events
50
Family events
40
Health
30
20
10
Employment
0
16-24
Source: UK Public Opinion Survey, 1994
25-39
40-54
55-64
65+
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“Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated” Mark Twain
80 mpg Direct Injection
A New Life for Internal Combustion
Engines
60 mpg Hybrid
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Dynamics as Usual: Oil Price
2000 $ per barrel
40
30
20
10
Dynamics as Usual
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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“Dash for Gas”
Local air quality concerns in
Asia
Gas and power
liberalisation
High efficiency
CCGT
LNG spot market
Global Dash For Gas
CO2
gas substitution
Nuclear and coal
decommissioning
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Asian Gas Grid 2020
Sakhalin
Yakutsk
major demand
major supply
LNG flows
Turkmenistan
West Baikal
pipelines
Ordos
Iran
Tarim
Sichuan
Oman
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Gas Security Concerns
Gas Imports as % of Energy Consumption
25
W. Europe
20
Japan
15
10
North East Asia
5
0
1970
2000
2030
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A Tale of Two Eras
Renewables Growth and Plateau
EJ
75
• strong government support
• environment and security
50
• green power niches open
• intermittence
constraints
25
• saturated OECD
demand
• planning blockages
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
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Branching Point 2025
2010
2020
2030
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Ubiquitous Solar 2030
Diverse Storage
Thermal
Pumped hydro
Compressed air
Chemical
Source: NREL, 2000
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The Orderly Oil Transition 2040
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Primary Energy: Global
Dynamics as Usual
Energy Demand (EJ)
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Oil
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Primary Energy: Europe
Dynamics as Usual
Energy Demand (EJ)
100.0
75.0
50.0
25.0
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Oil
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Energy Transitions: Global
% of Primary Energy
80
Traditional
Coal
60
Oil
40
Gas
Renewables
20
Hydro
0
1850
1900
1950
Biofuels
Nuclear
2000
2050
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Energy Transitions: Europe
60%
Oil
50%
40%
30%
Coal
Gas
Renewables
20%
10% Hydro
Nuclear
Biofuels
0%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
© Shell International Ltd.
Dynamics as Usual - Timeline
- Need for clean, secure, sustainable energy push a
path to Renewables.
- Supported by gas in the medium term.
- Vehicle efficiency advances prolongs oil use.
2005 Hybrid vehicles proliferate
2010 “Dash for Gas”
2015 Oil price decline triggers resource expansion
2020 OECD renewables stall at 20% of electricity supply
Gas security concerns emerge
2030 New nuclear stalls
Next generation of renewables emerges
2040 Oil scarcity drives biofuels expansion
© Shell International Ltd.
Energy Branching Points
demographics
Dynamics as Usual
urbanisation
Resource
constraints
Technologies
Social &
personal
priorities
Innovation
and
competition
incomes & demand
liberalisation
The Spirit of the
Coming Age
© Shell International Ltd.
Spirit of the Coming Age - Timeline
- Consumer demands convenience, independence.
- Supported by advanced hydrocarbon technologies. - Infrastructure bridge to a hydrogen
economy.
2005 First stationary and vehicular fuel cells
2010 Gas expands
Fuel cell innovations
Renewables limited to niches
2015
Convergence around fuel cells for transport
and stationary uses -- gas network backbone
2020 Unconventional oil & gas expand in China/India
Fuel cells reach 25% of sales in OECD
2030 Solid H2 storage transition
Renewables pulled by strong H2 demand
2040 H2 infrastructure expansion
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1908 Personal Transport
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Breaking Paradigms
Mobile music
Mobile and Personal computing
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Thresholds Crossed
What options would 12 litres of fuel for 400 kilometres create?
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Fuel Convenience
Freedom
with
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Conventional ICE and Fuel Cell Vehicles
What makes a FC vehicle attractive:
• high on-board power generation
• unlimited and remote heating & cooling
• noiseless operation
• low maintenance
• zero emission
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One Size Fits All
PEM Fuel Cell $ per kW
100,000
Vehicles
• utilised 50% of time, not 5%
10,000
Dwellings
• heat & power from fuel cells
1,000
• power from idle vehicles
Gas turbine
Rural Households & Industry
100
• small fuel cell CHP
10
1960
Source: Powering the Future, Koppel, 1999
1980
2000
2020
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Fuel Cell Vehicle Share of Sales
% of total
100
Global
• clean, quiet
80
• low maintenance
60
• high performance
OECD
40
• mobile information
% of global
natural gas
sales
20
and entertainment
• ICE cannot compete
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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China Leapfrog 2020
Air quality concerns
and weak
regulatory control
Water scarcity
in the north
Supply security
concerns
- oil, gas, fertiliser
China Hydrogen Economy
Large coal resource
Logistic constraints
Land scarcity
limits bio-fuels
Mass transport &
electric drive for uneven terrain
Global price
for CO2
CH4 and H2 from coal
Advanced membranes
Fuel cells
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Oil is Not Needed
Million bbls per day
125
100
75
50
25
0
1975
2000
2025
2050
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The Great Game of Gas
Oil and Gas Demand
150
100
Oil
50
Gas
0
1970
2000
2030
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Oil Price Comparison
2000 $ per barrel
40
Spirit of the Coming Age
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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Primary Energy: Global
Spirit of the Coming Age
Energy Demand (EJ)
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Oil
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Primary Energy: Europe
Spirit of the Coming Age
Energy Demand (EJ)
100.0
75.0
50.0
25.0
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Oil
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Energy Transitions: Global
60%
50%
Oil
40%
Coal
30%
20%
10%
Gas
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biofuels
0%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
© Shell International Ltd.
Energy Transitions: Europe
60%
Oil
50%
40%
Coal
30%
Gas
Renewables
20%
10% Hydro
Nuclear
0%
1970
Biofuels
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
© Shell International Ltd.
Emergence of the
Hydrogen Economy
Ratio of Hydrogen (H) to Carbon (C)
H / (H+C)
102
101
100
Hydrogen
Economy
Methane: H/C = 4
Oil: H/C = 2
Methane
Economy
Coal: H/C = 1
Wood: H/C = 0.1
10-1
0.90
0.80
0.67
Non-Fossil
Hydrogen
0.05
0.09
t = 300 years (length of process)
Including traditional biomass
10-2
1800
Source: IIASA, Nakicenovic
1900
2000
2100
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Spirit of the Coming Age - Timeline
- Consumer demands convenience, independence.
- Supported by advanced hydrocarbon technologies. - Infrastructure bridge to a hydrogen
economy.
2005 First stationary and vehicular fuel cells
2010 Gas expands
Fuel cell innovations
Renewables limited to niches
2015
Convergence around fuel cells for transport
and stationary uses -- gas network backbone
2020 Unconventional oil & gas expand in China/India
Fuel cells reach 25% of sales in OECD
2030 Solid H2 storage transition
Renewables pulled by strong H2 demand
2040 H2 infrastructure expansion
© Shell International Ltd.
Shell’s Long Term Energy Scenarios
What energy needs, choices and possibilities will shape a global energy system which halts
the rise in human-induced carbon dioxide emissions within the next 50 years – leading to a
stabilising of atmospheric carbon levels below 550 ppmv – without jeopardising economic
development?
© Shell International Ltd.
CO2 Emissions and Atmospheric Concentration
billion tonnes carbon
ppmv
14
550
Spirit of the Coming Age
12
Spirit of the Coming Age
500
10
450
8
Dynamics as Usual
6
400
Dynamics as Usual
4
350
2
0
300
1975
2000
2025
2050
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
© Shell International Ltd.
Long Term Energy Scenarios
Dynamics as Usual
Spirit of the Coming Age
“Health and Security”
“Convenient and Unobtrusive”
Incumbent technologies respond.
Revolutionary new technologies.
Renewables promoted.
Convergence around fuel cells.
Gas favoured but security concerns.
Abundant gas provides backbone
Renewables ‘boom then bust’ until Large scale Renewables pulled
new generation and storage
by H2 demand post 2030.
solutions emerge around 2025.
Towards a renewables dominant
electricity and liquid fuels world
Towards a fuel cell dominant
hydrogen economy
© Shell International Ltd.
Energy Scenarios – Key Points
• Energy systems are dynamic – responding to changing conditions, choices and
possibilities.
•Rise in human-induced CO2 emissions could be halted within the next 50 years –
leading to stabilisation of atmospheric concentrations below 550 parts-permillion.
•Gas will move to centre stage as the bridging fuel.
•Renewable energy sources have the potential to meet long term energy needs.
© Shell International Ltd.