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Economic Outlook
November 4, 2009
Table of Contents
I.
National Economic Overview
II.
Residential Real Estate Summary
III.
North Carolina
Appendix
| Economics
2
National Economic Overview
| Economics
3
U.S. Economic Overview
The Recession Appears to Have Ended This Summer, but the Recovery Will Likely Be Slow and Agonizing
Highlights



Nonfarm Employment Change
Real GDP
We believe the recession may have ended
in June. The downturn turned into the
longest of the post-war period at 19
months, but some signs of stabilization
are appearing.
We are beginning to see some small
positives in many key indicators mixed in
with smaller declines.
The labor market remains the primary
concern as job losses have reached 7.2
million and are likely on their way to
more than 9 million before the end of the
cycle. This would easily exceed every
downturn since the aftermath of World
War II. The unemployment rate should
reach 10 percent later this year.
Bars = CAGR
10.0%
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Change in Employment, In Thousands
10.0%
600
GDPR - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ -2.3%
8.0%
8.0%
6.0%
400
400
200
200
6.0%
Forecast
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-6.0%
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
-8.0%
-8.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
-600
Nonfarm Employment Change: Sep @ -263,000
-800
2000
-800
2001
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
 Level One
 Level Two
Real Gross
Domestic
 Level
Three Product 1
Personal Consumption
Level Four
Business Fixed Investment
Equipment and Software
Consumer Price Index2
Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2
10-Year Treasury Note
Actual
2006
600
GDPR - CAGR: Q3 @ 3.5%
2007
2009
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Employment Change in Recessions
2010
Percentage Change Peak-to-Trough
0%
Forecast
2008
2002
2011
2.7
2.9
7.9
7.4
3.2
2.1
2.6
6.2
2.6
2.9
0.4
-0.2
1.6
-2.6
3.8
-2.4
-0.8
-18.1
-17.7
-0.4
2.4
1.0
-1.8
2.8
1.6
2.2
1.4
3.6
5.4
2.0
10.5
4.71
-4.1
4.04
-11.8
2.25
-10.6
3.40
7.8
3.80
9.8
4.40
Forecast as of: October 7, 2009 1C ompound Annual Growth Rate 2Year-over-Year Percent C hange
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-3%
-4%
-4%
-5%
-5%
Preliminary Benchmark Revision Losses
-6%
-6%
19481949
Cycle
19531954
Cycle
19571958
Cycle
19601961
Cycle
19691970
Cycle
19731975
Cycle
1980
Cycle
19811982
Cycle
19891991
Cycle
2001
Cycle
2007ToDate
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
4
U.S. Economic Overview
The Domestic Economy Has Been Extremely Weak but Is on Track for a Modest Recovery
Highlights
 Real “core” GDP, or private
Real "Core" GDP
Bars = CAGR
10.0%
domestic final sales, line up well
with the persistent weakness in the
domestic economy more clearly
than does GDP. The measure has
been negative in the past six
quarters, and we expect it to turn
sustainably positive next year.
 International trade collapsed last
year. Imports have fallen
dramatically this year, while exports
have fallen less.
 Businesses have struggled to bring
inventories in line with demand.
Massive liquidations occurred in
the first three quarters of this year.
We expect the drawdown process to
proceed, albeit more slowly, for
several more quarters.
 Nominal GDP, a measure of
revenue growth for the economy,
has already seen the steepest
decline since 1958 and will likely
turn positive in the second half of
this year.
Trade Balance in Goods
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
10.0%
7.5%
7.5%
Forecast
5.0%
5.0%
2.5%
2.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-2.5%
-2.5%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-7.5%
-7.5%
-10.0%
"Core" GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 3.2%
"Core" GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ -3.4%
-12.5%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
3-Month Moving Average, Billions of Dollars
$0
-$10
-$20
-$30
-$30
-$40
-$40
-$50
-$50
-$60
-$60
-10.0%
-$70
-$70
-12.5%
-$80
2010
-$80
97
98
99
00
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
$125
Compound Annual Growth Rate
12.0%
12.0%
$100
$75
Forecast
$75
$50
$50
$25
$25
$0
9.0%
Forecast
9.0%
6.0%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-3.0%
-3.0%
$0
-$25
-$25
-$50
-$50
-$75
-$75
-$100
-$100
-$125
-$125
-$150
-$200
2000
01
Nominal GDP
Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate
$100
-$175
-$10
-$20
Change in Real Inventories
$125
$0
Nominal Trade Balance: Aug @ -$41.0 Billion
Real Trade Balance: Aug @ -$37.4 Billion
-$150
-$200
2002
2004
2006
2008
-6.0%
Nominal GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 4.3%
Nominal GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ -1.7%
-$175
Change in Private Inventories: Q3 @ -$130.8B
2010
-9.0%
-6.0%
-9.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
5
Consumer Overview
Consumer Spending Plunged in the Late 2008 and Early 2009, but the Declines Moderated This Spring
Discretionary
Spending Spending
Discretionary
Consumer
May-2009
Other
Discretionary
20%
Housing Away
from Home
1%
Alcohol & Tobacco
3%
Clothing & Shoes
4%
Recreation
4%
Furniture &
HHEquip
4%
Motor Vehicles
3%
Food Away from
Home
5%
Negative
Non-Discretionary
56%
Positive
Retail Sales Ex. Auto & Gas Stations vs. Income
3-Month Moving Average
 Collapsing Labor Market
 The torrent of layoffs and job
losses is unlikely to abate until
next year.
 Housing & Home Equity
 Housing prices and home equity
are still likely headed lower,
weighing further on consumer
spending and sentiment.
15%
15%
Stock Market
Bubble
12%
Tax Cut 2
Housing Refi
Boom
Tax
Rebates
Tax Cut 1
12%
9%
9%
6%
6%
3%
3%
0%
0%
-3%
-3%
-6%
-6%
-9%
-9%
Disposable Personal Income, Yr/Yr % Change: Aug @ -0.2%
3-Month Annual Rate: Sep @ 0.6%
-12%
-12%
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
 Fiscal Stimulus
 A reduction in payroll
withholdings provided a lift to
take-home pay in the middle of
this year.
 Consumer Confidence
 While confidence is still low,
consumer expectations for the
future have rebounded off of
their lows.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
6
Credit Spreads & The Yield Curve
Fed and Treasury Actions Have Helped Narrow Credit Spreads
Highlights



Conventional Mortgage to 10-Year Treasury Spread
TED Spread
Credit markets began a steady thaw late last
year, and progress has continued in recent
weeks. The TED spread has moved to a level
not seen since the credit crunch began, and is
now at a more normal level.
Corporate borrowing has improved as credit
spreads have narrowed. Credit is still
relatively expensive, and it remains difficult
for small businesses and consumers to qualify.
Mortgage rates were pushed sharply lower by
the Fed’s intervention in the MBS market,
reaching historically low levels in April.
Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates have
remained around 5 percent since then.
450
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
275
275
250
250
225
225
200
200
175
175
150
150
50
125
125
0
100
2004
2009
700
Basis Points
300
300
250
250
500
500
200
200
400
400
150
150
300
300
100
100
200
200
50
100
2008
2009
0
2005
50
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
1,600
5-Year AAA CMBS: Oct @ 350 bps
600
2007
2006
Basis Points
1,600
CDX: Nov @ 107 bps
600
2006
100
2005
5-Year and 10-Year AAA CMBS Spreads
CDX IG Index
Basis Points
2005
300
Mortgage Spread: Nov @ 154 bps
400
Baa Corporates: Nov @ 285 bps
100
2004
300
TED: Nov @ 21 bps
Baa Corporate Spread
700
Basis Points
Basis Points
450
2007
2008
2009
1,400
10-Year AAA CMBS: Oct @ 525 bps
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
2005
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: British Bankers’ Association, Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
7
Global Growth & The Dollar
A Tentative Global Recovery Is Starting to Take Hold
Highlights



Real Global GDP Growth
After declining in 2009, global economic
growth is poised to rebound in 2010.
Recovery is already under way in
developing nations such as China and
Brazil, and there are signs that European
recessions are coming to an end. Many
western economies, however, will still
likely continue to need macroeconomic
stimulus.
The dollar should continue to grind
higher against most major currencies
over the next few quarters as U.S. growth
prospects continue to improve.
Central Bank Policy Rates
Year-over-Year Percent Change
7.5%
7.5%
9.0%
8.0%
6.0%
6.0%
Period Average
7.0%
4.5%
4.5%
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.5%
-1.5%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
9.0%
US Federal Reserve: Nov @ 0.25%
Bank of England: Nov @ 0.50%
ECB: Nov @ 1.00%
Reserve Bank of Australia: Nov @ 3.50%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2000
0.0%
2001
2002
(End of Quarter Rates)
Euro ($/€)
U.K. ($/£)
Japan (¥/$)
Canada (C$/US$)
Switzerland (CHF/$)
China (CNY/$)
Mexico ($/MXN)
1.50
1.61
90
1.04
1.01
6.82
13.03
1.46
1.58
93
1.07
1.03
6.81
12.83
Q2
1.40
1.55
97
1.09
1.08
6.80
12.58
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Major Curency Index, 1973 = 100
115
110
2010
Q1
2003
Trade Weighted Dollar
115
Q4
7.0%
6.0%
Wells Fargo Bank Currency Strategy Group Forecast
2009
8.0%
110
105
Q3
1.34
1.53
101
1.11
1.14
6.79
12.50
Q4
1.31
1.51
105
1.11
1.18
6.78
12.33
105
Forecast
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
Trade Weighted Dollar: Q3 @ 74.7
65
65
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Forecast as of: October 15, 2009
Source: Bloomberg LP, Federal Reserve Board, International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
8
Unemployment by County
Large Portions of the United States Continue to Face Serious Unemployment Issues
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
August 2009
Greater than 12.5%
6.0% to 8.0%
10.0% to 12.5%
Less than 6.0%
8.0% to 10.0%
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
9
Residential Real Estate Summary
| Economics
10
Homebuilding
Construction May Have Bottomed, but This Will Likely Not Be the End of the Problems for Housing
Highlights
Housing Starts
Millions of Units
2.4
 We estimate an overbuild of roughly 2.0 million units occurred at the cycle
peak, and, unfortunately, little progress was made in reducing inventories in
2008 despite the collapse in new home construction. Although inventory levels
have improved this year, they still remain elevated. This will likely continue to
pressure new construction activity and prices.
 Housing starts remain at low levels, although they have inched up recently.
Starts probably bottomed during the first half of this year, but we are at least
two years away from seeing starts move back above 1 million units.
 Excess supply from builders and the rising tide of foreclosed properties have
driven prices sharply lower. Price declines have moderated in recent months.
Progress will likely remain uneven, and we do not expect to see house prices
trough until 2010.
2.1
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
80
82
84
86
Wells Fargo Housing Outlook
Home Construction
Total Housing Starts, in thousands
Single-Family Starts, in thousands
Multi-Family Starts, in thousands
1,811.9
1,473.6
338.3
Home Sales
New Home Sales, Single-Family, in thousands
Total Existing Home Sales, in thousands
1,049.3
6,482.9
Actual
2007
1,341.8
1,035.8
306.1
768.7
5,652.8
2008
900.3
615.8
284.5
481.3
4,913.0
Case-Shiller C-10 Home Price Index, % Change
7.5
7.4
2.2
-4.4
-2.5
-16.7
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Home Prices
2009
580.0
440.0
140.0
390.0
4,800.0
Forecast
2010
790.0
590.0
200.0
550.0
5,200.0
2011
990.0
770.0
220.0
750.0
5,300.0
-4.6
-15.4
-0.6
-3.0
0.5
0.0
24%
20%
20%
16%
16%
12%
12%
8%
8%
4%
4%
0%
0%
-4%
-4%
-8%
-8%
-12%
-12%
Median Sale Price: Sep @ $174,900
Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: Sep @ -11.2%
-16%
Home Prices
FHFA (OFHEO) Home Price Index, % Change
88
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
24%
2006
2.4
Dashed Line is Underlying Demographic Trend
-16%
FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: Jul @ -4.2%
S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Aug @ -10.6%
-20%
-20%
-24%
-24%
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Forecast as of: September 25, 2009
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
11
Residential Real Estate
While Construction May Have Seen a Trough, We Expect Prices to Continue Declining for Some Time
Highlights
S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices
Existing & New Single Family Home Sales
 New home sales have improved
markedly in recent months. Sales
fell sharply last autumn despite
lower mortgage rates and increased
incentives from builders.
 Existing sales have held up better
and have also increased recently.
A large portion, however, consists
of foreclosure and distressed sales.
The first-time homebuyers’ tax
credit is likely providing a lift to
home sales. The tax credit,
however, is due to expire at the end
of the year.
 The near-term relevance of the
housing affordability measure has
diminished because prices have
been pushed down by foreclosure
activity and fewer people can
qualify for conventional mortgages.
 Although credit standards loosened
somewhat in the third quarter, they
still remain tight. Continued
caution is understandable given the
rise in delinquency rates and
foreclosures.
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - In Millions
1.6
Percent Decline from Local Market Peak
7.0
6.5
1.4
6.0
1.2
5.5
1.0
5.0
0.8
4.5
0.6
4.0
0.4
Dallas
Denver
Charlotte
Cleveland
Boston
Atlanta
New York
Portland
Seattle
Chicago
Minneapolis
Washington
San Diego
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Tampa
Detroit
Miami
Phoenix
Las Vegas
3.5
New Home Sales: Sep @ 402 Thousand (Left Axis)
28.3%
28.8%
38.7%
39.2%
39.3%
39.8%
43.7%
47.0%
52.3%
54.9%
C-10
C-20
Existing Home Sales: Sep @ 4.9 Million (Right Axis)
0.2
2002
4.0%
7.3%
11.2%
13.0%
14.5%
18.5%
19.0%
19.3%
22.2%
22.6%
30.2%
29.3%
3.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0%
Base = 100
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%
Net Percent of Banks Tightening Standards
Housing Affordability, NAR-Home Sales
180
5%
Mortgages for Individuals
180
100%
100%
All Mortgages (Through Q1-2007)
170
170
160
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
Prime Mortgages: Q3 @ 21.6%
80%
110
Nontraditional Mortgages: Q3 @ 45.8%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
110
0%
100
90
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
0%
100
Housing Affordability Index: Sep @ 162.7
6-Month Moving Average: Sep @ 164.2
06
08
-20%
1990
-20%
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: Federal Reserve Board, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
12
Home Price Declines from Peak
Home Price Declines Will Likely Continue into 2010
FHFA (OFHEO) Home Price Index
FHFA: Q1-2009
Percent Decline from Peak Value
No C hange
3% to 9%
0% to 1%
More than 9%
1% to 3%
Source: FHFA and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
13
North Carolina
| Economics
14
North Carolina
Unemployment and Housing Freeze the Economy
Highlights




North Carolina Nonfarm Employment
North Carolina’s unemployment rate has
more than doubled since the start of the
recession. Labor force growth has
certainly contributed to the rise in the
unemployment rate, but layoffs have also
mounted at an alarming rate. Layoffs are
most notable in the construction and
manufacturing sectors, which still account
for about 20 percent of total employment
in the state.
Payroll employment declined more than
five percent from its peak in several major
metro areas including Charlotte and
Greensboro. Recently, however, the
declines have been slowing. With such
severe job losses, personal income will
likely fall this year, hitting the state’s
retailers and consumer sectors.
New single-family building activity has
declined considerably from cycle highs as
local and national builders scaled back.
Construction likely bottomed earlier this
year, and single-family construction
activity has inched up recently.
Most of the state did not experience the
same rapid home price appreciation
during the housing boom as other parts of
the country. Home prices declined more
than six percent in the second quarter, and
we do not expect price appreciation to
return for at least another year.
3-Month Moving Averages
6%
North Carolina Relative Employment
6%
January 2000 = 100
124
120
3%
3%
116
0%
0%
-3%
-3%
-6%
-9%
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
112
112
108
108
104
104
100
100
96
92
08
92
00
01
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
04
05
06
07
08
09
08
120
Single-Family: Sep @ 27,288
Single-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Sep @ 25,234
Multi-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Sep @ 9,394
11%
12-Month Moving Average: Sep @ 9.7%
10%
90
03
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
120
Unemployment Rate: Sep @ 10.8%
11%
02
North Carolina Housing Permits
Seasonally Adjusted
12%
116
96
-9%
92
120
-6%
3-Month Annual Rate: Sep @ -2.6%
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Sep @ -5.1%
Household: Year/Year Percent Change: Sep @ -5.1%
90
124
North Carolina: Sep @ 101.0
Raleigh: Sep @ 116.6
Charlotte: Sep @ 107.1
Asheville: Sep @ 103.5
Greensboro: Sep @ 95.0
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
15
Charlotte
Unemployment Is a Major Concern
Highlights





Charlotte MSA Nonfarm Employment
Payroll employment declined sharply and
the unemployment rate rose following the
beginning of last year as layoffs mounted.
Recently, however, the declines have
slowed.
Charlotte’s housing market saw strong
growth but was not a bubble market.
Nevertheless, excesses need to be worked
off. Home prices have declined modestly
over the past year and are down a
cumulative 11 percent from their peak, as
measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
Worries about the region’s financial
employment base will likely weigh on the
housing market in coming quarters.
Single-family construction declined over 80
percent from its peak, reflecting pull backs
by national builders and the effects of
tighter credit. Single-family construction
has inched up over the past few months.
Population growth in 2008 totaled 55,000
in the MSA and close to 70,000 in the
broader CSA, which includes emerging
suburbs and employment markets in
Mooresville, Denver and Lancaster County.
Charlotte MSA Housing Permits
3-Month Moving Averages
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8%
3-Month Annual Rate: Sep @ -2.3%
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Sep @ -5.9%
-10%
Household: Yr/Yr Percent Change: Sep @ -6.8%
-12%
93
95
97
99
01
03
Multi-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Sep @ 3,419
25
05
07
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
09
0
90
92
13%
Unemployment Rate: Sep @ 12.0%
12-Month Moving Average: Sep @ 10.5%
11%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
92
94
96
98
00
02
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
In Thousands
70
70
12%
11%
90
94
Charlotte MSA Population Growth
Seasonally Adjusted
12%
25
20
Charlotte MSA Unemployment Rate
13%
30
Single-Family: Sep @ 4,956
Single-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Sep @ 4,234
-10%
-12%
91
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
30
04
06
08
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
16
Charlotte CSA
Charlotte CSA Population Growth
Charlotte CSA Employment Growth
Thousands of Persons
90
Annual Growth, Thousands of Jobs
90
50
Charlotte MSA: 2008 @ 55.4
80
80
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
Charlotte CMSA: 2008 @ 67.5
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
Employment concerns
dominate the outlook
for Greater Charlotte
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
50
2008 is year-to-date
Greater Charlotte: 2008 @ 12.1
0
0
-10
10
-20
0
-30
08
-10
Charlotte CMSA: 2008 @ -8.3
Greater Charlotte: 2008 @ -4.6
Charlotte MSA: 2008 @ -3.7
-20
-30
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Charlotte CSA Unemployment Rate
Charlotte CSA Job Growth
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Percent of Labor Force
8%
14%
6%
6%
12%
12%
4%
4%
10%
10%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
8%
-6%
-6%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Mar @ -6.91%
-8%
1991
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2%
Unemployment Rate: Sep @ 12.6%
-8%
1993
14%
2007
2009
0%
1990
0%
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
| Economics
17
Appendix
| Economics
18
Economics Group Publications
A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional and Industry Commentary
Distribution Lists
Recent Special Commentary
 Monthly Economic Outlook
Date
October-20
October-19
October-15
October-06
October-05
 Weekly Economic & Financial
Commentary
 Special Reports
 Global Economic Commentary
 Federal Reserve Commentary
 Real Estate & Housing
 Chief Economist List
distribution lists, please visit our
website:
 http://www.wachovia.com/economic
Authors
Bryson
Bryson, Khan & Kama.
Vitner & York
Bryson & Quinlan
Vitner & Kamaruddin
Silvia
Bryson
Vitner, Khan & Kamar.
Vitner & Khan
Benchmarking Recovery: Rhyming not Repeating
Will Debt Restrain Euro-zone Consumer Spending?
State & Local Financial Woes Still Building
Wobbly Fundamentals for Business Spending
Housing Chartbook: August 2009
Healthcare Employment Stays out of the Sick Ward
Early Recoveries are Typically “Jobless”
Silvia
Bryson
Vitner & Khan
Silvia & Quinlan
Vitner & York
Silvia, York & Whelan
Silvia & York
July-29
July-21
July-16
July-08
July-01
Recession Probability Drops Again
Decision-Makers’ Guide to Stimulus Part Deux
Is China the Next Bubble?
Macro Clouds, Micro Foundations
Pass-Through Effect of Housing Weakness
Silvia & Iqbal
Silvia
Bryson
Silvia
Vitner & Whelan
June-30
June-30
June-29
June-25
June-19
June-18
June-11
New Jersey Outlook - June 2009
Cash-for-Clunkers Boost Likely Unsustainable
Breakdown, Adjustment & Rebuilding in Finance
Recession Probability Drops Again to 37 Percent
Labor Market Evolution: Realities and Romantics
What Drives Consumer Delinquency Rates?
Florida Economic Outlook - June 2009
Vitner, Khan & Kamar.
Vitner & Khan
Silvia
Silvia & Iqbal
Silvia, York & Whelan
Vitner & Iqbal
Vitner & Kamaruddin
August-31
August-26
August-24
August-18
August-14
August-14
August-13
 Consumer & Retail
semail
What Is Gold Telling Us?
Housing Chartbook: October 2009
Beyond America, Canadian Economic Prospects
Georgia Economic Outlook: October 2009
Comments Before Federal Reserve Advisory Panel
September-24 What's Wrong With the Dollar?
September-03 Commercial Real Estate Chartbook: Second Quarter
September-02 Clunkernomics: Auto Sales Set to Boost Real GDP
 Economic Indicators
 To join any of our research
Title
November-03 How Bleak Is the British Consumer Spending Outlook
| Economics
19
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
Diane Schumaker-Krieg
Global Head of Research & Economics




[email protected]

Mark Vitner
Jay H. Bryson, Ph.D.
Senior Economist
Global Economist
[email protected]
U.S. Macro Economy
Real Estate
John E. Silvia, Ph.D.
Chief Economist

[email protected]
Global Economies
Foreign Exchange
[email protected]
Scott Anderson, Ph.D.
Eugenio Aleman, Ph.D.
Senior Economist

[email protected]
U.S.
Macro Economy
Senior Economist

[email protected]

U.S. Macro Economy
Sam Bullard
Anika Khan
Azhar Iqbal
Adam G. York
Economist
Economist
Econometrician
Economist
[email protected]
Desk Operations
Financial Services

[email protected]
Real Estate
Retail & Automotive

[email protected]
Quantitative MacroEconomic Modeling
Ed Kashmarek
Tim Quinlan
Kim Whelan
Economist
Economic Analyst
Economic Analyst
[email protected]
[email protected]
Global Economies
Business Investment
[email protected]
U.S. Macro Economy
Business Investment
U.S.
Macro Economy



[email protected]
U.S. Consumer
Real Estate
Yasmine Kamaruddin
Economic Analyst

[email protected]
U.S.
Macro Economy
Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry
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2009 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.
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| Economics
20