Transcript Mar del Plata, Argentina, 31 Aug – 1 Sep 2009 ITU

ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2009
Innovations for Digital Inclusion
Leveraging NGN for Human
Development from the Bottom of
South Africa’s Development
Pyramid
Presented by: Dr. Hannah Thinyane
Rhodes University South Africa
[email protected]
Mar del Plata, Argentina, 31 Aug – 1 Sep 2009
Human Development
The process of enlarging people’s
three essential choices:
To lead a long and healthy life
To acquire knowledge
To have access to the resources needed
for a decent standard of living
All development efforts can be
reduced to these three choices
Can the evolving NGN promote these
and subordinate human choices?
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To live a long and healthy life
Benchmarking South Africa’s Choices:
S. Africa
Thailand Colombia Turkey
S. Korea
18
18.8%
71.7 years
10
Probability of surviving Life expectancy
to age 65 (%)
at birth (years)
8
<0.2%
0.6%
6
<0.1%
0
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1.4%
10
16
12
77 years
30
70.8years
40
68.6 years
50
53 years
60
72%
57.8%
57.8
%
69%
70
78.6%
80
20
20
4
HIV Prevalence (%)
90
34%
Life expectancy at birth (years) &
Probability of surviving to age 65 (%)
Survivability; Life Expectancy; HIV/AIDS
2
0
HIV Prevalence (%)
3
To acquire knowledge
Benchmarking South Africa’s choice of
knowledge acquisition:
TIMSS 2003 Maths and Science Assessments
PIRLS 2006 Reading literacy
Grade 8 Maths Grade 8 Science
Grade 4 Reading
Highest
(Score)
Singapore
(605)
Singapore
(578)
Russia (567)
Average
(Score)
Romania,
Norway (467)
Jordan,
Moldova (474)
Moldova, Belgium
(500)
Lowest
(Score)
South Africa
(264)
South Africa
(244)
South Africa
(306)
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To acquire knowledge
South Africa’s challenge 1:
Deep ethno-cultural historical divisions
% South Africans with 12+ years of formal education
% of population
26.0%
26.0%
African
79.5%
30.2%
30.2%
Coloured
8.8%
54.6%
54.6%
Indian
2.5%
78.5%
78.5%
White
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
9.2%
80%
STATS SA 2006/2007
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To acquire knowledge
South Africa’s challenge 2: Poverty
The stress of living in poverty affects children’s
brain development – perpetuating poverty
Empirical USA evidence: $10,000 pa income
increase [M. Farah, 2008]:
16% increase in mid-income graduations
600% increase in poor community graduations
South Africa: 58% live on less than $620 per
annum
Until poverty and inequality is reduced,
education will remain in crisis
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Access to resources for decent living
Human Development & Wealth
South Africa: Relatively high wealth, low HD
Colombia, Thailand: lower wealth, higher HD
$35815
179
$22985
140
120
125
15000
160
100
76
$11535
40
1
25
$6381
$7613
60
20
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$630
$9077
81
80
80
10000
Human Development Rank
180
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20000
ic
GDP per Capita: US$ PPP 2005
25000
HDR 2007/2008 Revisions
7
Access to resources for decent living
Economic Inequality
70
92
70
60
42
40
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43.6
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33.1
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50
63.8
58.6
57.8
50
69
GINI Coefficient
60
Ratio 10% Richest : Poorest
A major threat to socio-political stability
A major barrier to economic and human development
Source: UN HDR 2007/2008
8
ICT: South Africa benchmarked
ICT: Potent Economic Driver
(1970 to 2000)
S. Korea: Tele-growth: X37: GDP/Capita growth: X40
S. Africa: Tele-growth: X2.7: GDP/Capita growth: X4
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High ICT Prices Suppress Human
Development
Mobile telephony:
An essential luxury for haves
A costly survivalist tool for have-nots
South African Prices: 0.8% of “First Economy”
income; 10.5% of average income for 70%
“Second Economy”
High mobile prices driving already poor people
deeper into poverty (Skuse & Cousins, Heeks)
Mobile prices in percent of
GDP/Capita range from 0.9% in
South Korea to 4.2% in Colombia
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High ICT Prices Suppress Human
Development
Broadband: The emerging integrated
information transport medium
Prices per month for 1MB/s unlimited downloads
South Africa max.
$633
South Africa min.
$247
Afghanistan
$487
India
$93
Pakistan
$32
Sri Lanka
$22
Japan $0.4 Based on $60 for 160MB/s, 30GB upload cap per day
0
Data sources:
100
200
300
400
Online prices, May 2009.
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500
600
700
Lirneasia 2009
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Connecting have-nots to global
knowledge
Address Global Challenges 5, 6, 9:
Global Challenge 5:
How can policymaking be made more sensitive
to global long-term perspectives?
Global Challenge 6:
How can the global convergence of ICT work
for everyone?
Global Challenge 9:
How can the capacity to decide be improved as
the nature of work and institutions change?
(Millennium Development Project: “2008 State of the Future”)
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Connecting have-nots to global
knowledge: How?
Leverage NGN for Bottom of the
Pyramid (BOP) ICT market:
BOP: The 4 billion+ people surviving on
less than US$ 3000 per annum
BOP in South Africa: 33.6 million
people, 70% of the population
Develop specific BOP networks,
applications, services based on NGN
(http://www.wri.org/publication/the-next-4-billion)
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Connecting have-nots to global
knowledge: How?
Research ICT4HD@SA’sBOP:
From the Bottom Up: Where the challenge lies
Using Interdisciplinary Teams:
Human development is Complex: Health, Wealth,
Knowledge, Politics, Society, Security, Technology;
Simultaneously:
HD Issues are Interrelated, Interdependent,
Interconnected;
With Multi-institutional Partners:
Human Development is a Global Challenge: 4.5 Billion
BOP Citizens; 36.6 million South Africans!
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Research and Develop BOP ICT
A Bottom-up R&D Strategy
Participative:
Interdisciplinary academics;
Multi-institutional partners;
ICT industry partners
NGOs, Civil Society, BOP citizens;
Action oriented
Research  Develop  Implement  Revise
 Integrate
Bottom-up R&D; Top-Down Integration
National, Regional, Global Scalability
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Risks; Barriers; Opportunities
Policy & Regulatory Barriers:
181 years of failed policy & regulation in Africa (1828-2009);
Critical focal element of research;
Commercial Interests:
Dominant ICT Industry resistance to change, strong influence
on policy/regulation;
Massive Market: African BOP spends US$4.4 Billion on ICT;
Complexity:
Multidisciplinary partnership formation, management;
Few alternatives; Increasing recognition of imperatives
Funding:
Donor fatigue; Global economic challenges
Global threat of inaction: Climate/Environment, Global
Security
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Conclusions
There are no alternatives: Too
few options:
Population growth, global poverty & inequality
threats, global/national security
Climate change, environmental sustainability
Thank you for your attention
Presenter: Dr. Hannah Thinyane:
[email protected]
Paper author: Walter Brown:
[email protected]
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