Transcript KWaste Power - NYU Stern School of Business

Karnataka Waste-to-Power
Astrid Fernandez
Annie Hsieh
Daniel Pedisich
Akshat Sarvaria
Sue Veksler
Agenda
 Background on India
 Current Business Environment
 The Case and Solution
 Risks and Benefits
 Feasibility Analysis/ Valuation
 Future Prospects
 Conclusion/ Q&A
No pun intended!
India: Social Background
Population (July 2002 estimate)
1,045,845,226
Age Structure
0-14 years old 32.7%
15-64 years old 62.6%
65 years and over 4.7%
Population Growth Rate (2002
estimate)
1.51%
Life Expectancy at Birth (total
population)
63.23 years
Literacy (age 15+ can read and
write)
Total population 52%
Male 65.5%
Female (1995 estimate) 37.7%
India: Political Background
 A parliamentary federal democracy.
 The Republic of India is made up of 29 states, and
six union territories.
 As the largest democracy in the world, India has held
regular and largely free elections since 1947.
 Economic liberalization through opening up to
foreign participation.
The Kashmir conflict with Pakistan.
India: Economic Background
 5th largest economy in the World and the 3rd largest GDP
in Asia.
 GDP growth averaged 5.8 percent in the 1990’s.
 India’s economic growth started to decelerate after 1996
due to:
- the decline in economic reforms in the financial sector,
infrastructure, trade and industrial policy, privatization, and labor
laws.
- slowing of growth in real investment.
 Effects of the Asian currency crisis.
Why India?
 The government has been
supporting and encouraging greater
outside participation in its private
sector.
 Long tradition of an established
legal, accounting, and judiciary system
 Higher disposable incomes of Indian
citizens and growing middle class.
 Large English-speaking population.
Why Bangalore, Karnataka?
 India’s technology sector
presently represents 1% of
its $200 Billion GDP (or $2
Billion).
 Expected to be $87 Billion
by 2008 (Nasscom and
McKinsey and Co.).
 Bangalore is the “Silicon
Valley” of India.
Our Solution:
Karnataka Waste-to-Power
Problems & Solutions
 Too much garbage = Problem
 Not enough electricity = Problem
 Waste to Energy = Solution
KWP offers a two-pronged solution,
simultaneous waste disposal and
energy production.
How does Waste-to-Energy work?
Why is Karnataka the best place?
Physical Characteristics of Solid Waste from some Cities in India
Cities
Paper
%
Plastic
%
Metal %
Glass%
Ash&
Earth %
Total
Calcutta
3.18
0.65
0.66
0.38
34.00
47.00
Delhi
6.29
0.85
1.21
0.57
36.00
35.00
Nagpur
1.88
1.35
1.33
1.34
41.42
34.81
Bangalore
4.00
2.00
0
1.00
15.00
78.00
Bombay
10.00
2.00
3.6
.2
45.60
40.00
Risks Associated With India
 Decreasing funds for education could impede
economic growth.
 Dispute with Pakistan leads to travel advisories and
less investors.
 Political instability and lack of consistent
government.
More Risks Associated With India
 Expertise lacking in regulatory bodies.
 Indian Governments have not come to terms with
independent regulation.
 Cannot trust or even speculate decisions made by
the regulatory body when in fact, an investor does
not know who is calling the shots.
But Opportunities Remain….
 Apparent mismatch between production and
population
Growth potential
Templeton Developing Markets Trust fund fact sheet, 2002
Opportunities in India
 In India the information technology
industry currently represents just
over 1% of the country’s $200
billion economy.
 This reflects expectations that
Internet usage in India will expand
at one of the fastest rates in Asia,
boosting knowledge and ultimately
income.
The Valuation
 Based on the model of Wheelabrator Technologies Inc.,
a U.S. based subsidiary of Waste Management, Inc.
 The initial purchase of a fleet of garbage trucks is based
on a fleet of 500 trucks, costing $100,000 each.
 We assume that we charge the municipal government
$30/ton to collect waste. This is a cost that we intend to
increase 3% per year in real terms.
 We intend to produce 0.5% of the energy required in the
local market (approximately 100 megawatts), and
increase our production by a rate of 3% annually.
The Valuation
 Operating a sanitary disposal (a capped landfill) costs
approximately $25/ton, increasing 3% annually.
 Transportation costs are approximately $18/ton, also
increasing 3% annually, and this represents the bulk of our
expenses.
 Plant operational costs grow at about 4.33% annually to
accommodate more input and output.
 Electricity is sold at the market rate, and increases at the
rate of inflation each year.
 The amount we need to put in a sanitary landfill for disposal
actually decreases over time.
The Valuation
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$
77,854
,643.6
3
$
84,750
,856.6
9
$
92,257
,922.9
1
$
100,42
9,950.
46
$
109,32
5,840.
34
$
119,00
9,710.
86
$
129,55
1,359.
81
Revenue from waste management
$
65,700,000.00
$
71,519,57
8.34
Electricity Sales
$
5,000,000.00
$
5,371,450.
00
$
5,532,
593.50
$
5,698,
571.31
$
5,869,
528.44
$
6,045,
614.30
$
6,226,
982.73
$
6,413,
792.21
$
6,606,
205.97
$
(7,620,000.00)
$
(8,291,793
.68)
$
(9,022,
813.96
)
$
(9,818,
282.39
)
$
(10,68
3,880.
82)
$
(11,62
5,792.
05)
$
(12,65
0,743.
96)
$
(13,76
6,057.
59)
$
(14,97
9,699.
38)
$
(22,452,123.70)
$
(23,629,78
0.01)
$
(23,35
3,022.
52)
$
(23,05
4,853.
15)
$
(22,73
4,455.
19)
$
(22,39
0,985.
12)
$
(22,02
3,571.
74)
$
(21,63
1,315.
36)
$
(21,21
3,286.
87)
$
(39,420,000.00)
$
(42,495,12
8.10)
$
(43,06
0,313.
31)
$
(43,63
3,015.
47)
$
(44,21
3,334.
58)
$
(44,80
1,371.
93)
$
(45,39
7,230.
18)
$
(46,00
1,013.
34)
$
(46,61
2,826.
82)
$
1,207,876.30
$
2,474,326.
55
$
7,951,
087.34
$
13,943
,276.9
8
$
20,495
,780.7
6
$
27,657
,415.6
6
$
35,481
,277.1
9
$
44,025
,116.7
8
$
53,351
,752.7
2
Cost of operating plant
Sanitary Disposal of Remaining Waste
Cost (approx $25/ton,inc. 3% annually)
Waste Transportation and Collection
Costs (approx $18/ton,inc. 3% annually)
Profit/Loss
$
(146,250,000.00)
The Valuation
2012
Revenue from waste management
Electricity Sales
Cost of operating plant
Sanitary Disposal of Remaining
Waste Cost (approx $25/ton,inc. 2%
annually)
Waste Transportation and Collection
Costs (approx $18/ton,inc. 2%
annually)
Profit/Loss
$
141,026,767.54
$
6,804,392.15
$
(16,300,338.14)
$
(20,768,526.85)
$
(47,232,777.41)
$
63,529,517.29
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
$
153,518,644.60
$
167,117,
027.85
$
181,9
19,92
9.47
$
198,0
34,04
3.35
$
215,5
75,51
4.13
$
234,6
70,77
4.30
$
255,4
57,45
5.53
$
278,0
85,38
0.58
$
302,7
17,64
3.28
$
329,5
31,78
3.94
$
7,008,523.92
$
7,060,67
3.92
$
7,112,
823.9
2
$
7,164,
973.9
2
$
7,217,
123.9
2
$
7,269,
273.9
2
$
7,321,
423.9
2
$
7,373,
573.9
2
$
7,425,
723.9
2
$
7,477,
873.9
2
$
(17,737,406.92)
$
(19,301,1
70.41)
$
(21,00
2,798.
27)
$
(22,85
4,444.
87)
$
(24,86
9,336.
15)
$
(27,06
1,864.
08)
$
(29,44
7,689.
44)
$
(32,0
43,85
3.69)
$
(34,8
68,90
0.71)
$
(37,9
43,00
9.25)
$
(20,296,044.63)
$
(19,794,8
17.28)
$
(19,26
3,788.
67)
$
(18,70
1,868.
38)
$
(18,10
7,930.
69)
$
(17,48
0,813.
46)
$
(16,81
9,316.
99)
$
(16,1
22,20
2.87)
$
(15,3
88,19
2.81)
$
(14,6
15,96
7.35)
$
(47,860,973.35)
$
(48,497,5
24.30)
$
(49,14
2,541.
37)
$
(49,79
6,137.
17)
$
(50,45
8,425.
80)
$
(51,12
9,522.
86)
$
(51,80
9,545.
51)
$
(52,4
98,61
2.47)
$
(53,1
96,84
4.01)
$
(53,9
04,36
2.04)
$
74,632,743.61
$
86,584,1
89.77
$
99,62
3,625.
08
$
113,8
46,56
6.84
$
129,3
56,94
5.40
$
146,2
67,84
7.82
$
164,7
02,32
7.51
$
184,7
94,28
5.47
$
206,6
89,42
9.66
$
230,5
46,31
9.22
Revenue & Cost of Capital
Cost of Capital Calculation Goldman Integrated
Model
India
$
Plant Start-up Cost
(137,500,000)
US Risk-Free Rate
A
5.00%
US Market Risk Premium
B
4.51%
Comparable Beta
C
1.5
Country Premium
D
6.00%
Cost of Equity
E=A+(B*C)+D
NPV using Cost of Equity
17.77%
$43,646,893.33
•The positive net present value of $46,646,893.33 is based on a discount rate of 17.77%, the approximate cost of equity, over
the twenty-year projected life of this illiquid investment, taking a 4.3% inflation rate into account, increasing all revenues and
expenses by at least this amount. We also include a thirty percent subsidy by the Indian government for the initial construction
costs of the power plant, which is being provided to companies involved in renewable energy projects.
Potential Problems?
 There is a strong chance that that our valuation
accurately reflects the worth of this project.
 Unforeseen costs, such as litigation, strikes, changes in
the regulatory environment, cleanup of environmental
catastrophe, or inability to collect funds due for our
collection services, could severely hamper our business
model.
Potential Problems?
Other risks to the valuation include, but are not limited to:
 High initial capital cost,
 financing issues due to lack investor confidence in a risky
venture,
 most of the technologies developed may not be suitable
for the nature of Indian waste.
Potential Problems?
 Lack of financial resources at the local and state
government levels.
 Lack of long term strategy and concrete policy on
waste management.
Lack of awareness of environmental issues in the
culture, tempering enthusiasm for environmentally
beneficial projects
But…
 Our model assumes that we are the sole collector of
municipal solid waste in Karnataka, and we process
100% of the waste.
This is likely to occur for the foreseeable future due to
the extensive start up costs to start such a business in
this risky, but potentially profitable, market.
Future Prospects
 The model could be implemented in other Indian cities, as
well as other developing markets.
 A real option to expand could increase the net present value
dramatically.
 The social benefits of managing waste responsibly would
make the value-added nature of this project a worthwhile
venture for the local and national governments to support.
 Other foreign investors in the region may be willing to invest
in this venture as well; everyone needs electricity and waste
management!
Any Questions?