Transcript Diapositiva 1 - the United Nations

Climate Change; a Latin
American and Caribbean
Perspective.
Joseluis Samaniego
Chief Sustainable Development
Division
UN Economic Commission for LAC
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Characteristics of LAC
• No decoupling (in general) between growth and
emissions.
• “Sinks” are a source (ag., cattle,).
• Very vulnerable to natural disasters.
• most of the population (75 %) is urbanized
(therefore popular housing, waste, wastewater,
air quality and transport are of high concern).
• Good institutions, including development
financial institutions: BNDES, NAFIN, CAF,
BCIE,CORFO, etc.
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Emissions Intensities
per GDP (red) and per
capita (blue).
Energy Intentsity:
barrels of oil/US of
2000.
.
Total consumption of energy (in thousands of barrels of oil
equivalent) for each million dollars of GDP (in constant 2000
prices)
SENDERO DE EMISIONES
(Kg. CO2/ US$ a precios de 2000; Kg. CO2 /Hab.)
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
energy intensity
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
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80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
k barrels/k GDP
1.9
years
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LAC’s emissions
(per supply unit of primary energy).
EM ISIONES DE CO2 POR UNIDAD DE OFERTA TOTAL DE ENERGIA PRIM ARIA
2.8
2.6
2.4
(t CO2/ TEP)
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
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World
OECD
Middle East
Former URSS
Non-OECD Europe
China
Asia
Latin America
Af rica
LAC’s emmissions per capita.
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10
(t CO2/Hab.)
8
6
4
2
0
World
OECD
Middle East
Former URSS
Non-OECD Europe
China
A sia
Source: ECLAC with IEA Key World Energy Statistics, 2006.
Latin A merica
A f rica
4
Giga tonnes of CO2 eq.
Non Anex I GHG emissions by Regions according to their
inventories for 1994
10
8
6
Energy
4
LULUCF
2
Total
0
-2
Africa
Asia and the Pacific Latin America and
the Caribbean
Evolution of Hydro-Meteorologic Disasters in the
LAC Region
Number of events
500
400
Centra Americal
300
Sud Americar
200
The Caribbean
Total
100
5
0
80-89
90-99
00-07
Changes in land-use have continued:
1990-2005
• Forest cover is down by 68,7 millon hectares
• Agriculture is up by 26,5 millon has: of which, 13,8
million are permanent pastures and 12,7 million is arable
lands and 42,2 million are temporary grasslands.
• Cattle grew by 68,1 million
• Soja grew by 22,4 million hectares
Source: FAO 2007.
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Land Use Change in LAC
A.LATINA Y CARIBE: CAMBIOS EN EL USO DEL SUELO
Miles de hectáreas
1200000
Bosques
1000000
800000
Area agrícola
600000
400000
Praderas y pastos
permanentes
200000
ALC: tierras arables y
cultivos permanentes
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: FAO 2007
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Forest loss is twice as fast than in the rest of
the World
Surface (1000
hectares)
Annual Change Change (%)
(1000 Hectares)
1990
2005
1990-2005
1990-2005
Caribbean
5.350
5.974
624
0.74
México
69.016
64.238
-4.778
-0.48
Centralam.
27.639
22.411
-5.228
-1.39
Southam.
890.818
831.540
-59.278
-0.46
LAC
992.823
924.163
-68.660
-0.48
-3.682.066
-0.21
World
4.077.291 3.952.025
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What do broad development-climate change
related LAC priorities seem to be?
• Energy security:
– Reducing demand through energy efficiency in electricity consumption
and in liquid fuels use (vehicles).
– Securing supply (gas and hidro may grow very slowly vis a vis other
sources. Somer renewables).
• Protecting the forests: REDD (incentives to arrest land use change)
• Agricultural production: Reduce soils degradation.
• Urban environmental quality: Improved sanitation services; water
treatment (MDGs) and landfills to recover methane.
• Economic security: Estimating the economic impacts of climate
change ranging from the primary sector to public finance.
• Socio-economic security: Preparing for more extreme weather
events.
• Scaling up to “programs” involving national and reginal financial
institutions.
• Regional coordination to protect competitiveness while making
progress on environmental issues (investment criteria, efficiency
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standards, etc.)
Where LAC could benefit more
from the CC process.
• Making make progres in
–
–
–
–
–
Rewarding net cleaner fuels like ethanol
Incentivizing forest and soils conservation
Rewarding the reorganization of mass transit systems
Support financially important national shifs in policies.
Enhancing carbon markets for a more meaningful
contribution of the region to global efforts .
– Facilitating access to better energy technologies (IPR,
prices, funding mechanisms, etc.)
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ECLAC’s work for 2008-2009
• Support REDD:
– research (opportunity costs, activity change),
– regional and extrarregional meetings.
• Support valuation of economic Impacts of CC (Mexico,
Central America: income and fiscal implications).
• Exploration of mitigation “Programs” (partners: Milan,
Energeias, BMZ-GTZ) :
– Urban: methane recovery,
– Rural: cogeneration in sugar mills.
• Facilitate regional disscussions (further steps like Bali
POA and Club de Madrid doc.)
• Discuss on Market Mecanisms Evolution (expanding
scopes).
• Asess energy trends.
• Carry out disaster valuation.
• Study trade and CC relations.
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Thank you for your attention.
[email protected]
Chief. Sust. Dev. Division
Economic Commission for LAC
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