Transcript U.S. Fiscal Policy

NS3040
Winter Term 2015
U.S. Fiscal Policy
U.S. Fiscal Policy I
• Several controversies currently dominating fiscal policy
• One position is that
• taxation and government spending are out of control and
• public debt is rapidly becoming unsustainable
• Other position is that
• U.S. fiscal policy has simply been mismanaged and that
corrections are easy to make – the situation is not dire.
• Useful to make some comparisons with other countries –
OECD, group of 30 wealthy democratic countries
• Total government expenditures in the U.S are a bit below the
overage for the OECD
• At 39% of GDP for 2013 much less than 59% Denmark, the
highest and
• Above 31% in Korea the lowest
• Government outlays increased as a % of GDP as the financial crisis
developed and have fallen since that time
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U.S. Fiscal Policy II
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U.S. Fiscal Policy III
Levels of Taxation
• Pattern very much same as with expenditures
• Denmark and Korea have the highest and lowest levels of
taxation as with outlays
• The U.S. is a bit below the average of OECD countries
• Taxes as a share of GDP increased in all countries as
incomes dropped during the global crisis
• Have fallen since
• On whole, level of taxation in the U.S. is not exceptionally
high by standards of wealthy countries
• Only slightly higher than its 20 year average.
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U.S. Fiscal Policy IV
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U.S. Fiscal Policy V
Budget Balance
• As of 2013 the U.S. deficit for all levels of government is
• somewhat greater than the OECD average but not much
• OECD’s greatest budget deficit for 2013 -- Japan
• Budget deficit much more volatile than underlying levels
of taxes and spending
• In 2009, annual deficit for all levels of U.S. government
increased to 11.9% GDP substantially more than OECD
average
• In 2009 the U.S. deficit was greater than Japan’s
• Greece and Ireland had even greater deficits that year
• Since its low point the U.S. budget deficit has decreased
by more than half, although remains larger than pre-crisis
average
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U.S. Fiscal Policy VI
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U.S. Fiscal Policy VII
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Net Debt
Pattern here is different than the earlier charts
Most indebted OECD country is again Japan
Japanese debt increased tremendously since long bout
with deflation in min-1990s
Least indebted country is Switzerland
In terms of debt the U.S. is well above the OECD Average
Also U.S. debt has risen more rapidly than OECD average
during crisis ad is running well above its own 20 year
historical norm
Unlike first two charts which are little cause for alarm, the
3 and 4th charts give a bleaker picture
Still they do not tell the whole story
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U.S. Fiscal Policy VIII
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U.S. Fiscal Policy IX
• Problem 1: US Fiscal Policy is Pro-cyclical
• Not useful to judge a country’s fiscal policy on the basis
of its annual budget balance
• The deficit or surplus for any year is strongly sensitive to
the effect of the business cycle through automatic
stabilizers
• These are elements of tax and spending laws that move
budget automatically
• Toward deficit when the economy contracts
• Toward surplus then it enjoys a boom
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U.S. Fiscal Policy X
• Get a clearer picture of posture of country’s fiscal policy
by making two adjustments
• First adjust for the effects of automatic stabilizers by
calculating the budget balance as it would look
• Assuming current tax and spending laws if the economy were at
full employment (zero output gap)
• That adjustment gives the structural balance
• Second need to take out the part of government outlays
that go to pay interest on the accumulated deficit
• This gives the primary structural balance
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U.S. Fiscal Policy XI
• Two sensible ways for a country to manage its primary
structural budget balance
• 1. follow a cyclically neutral policy
• Holds the primary structural balance constant from year
to year regardless of the state of the business cycle
• If done, annual balance would show a deficit during downturns
and a surplus during booms
• Would average out to a level that would prevent uncontrolled
accumulation of debt over time
• Chile follows such a cyclically neutral policy
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U.S. Fiscal Policy XII
• 2. follow a countercyclical policy
• Means making discretionary tax cuts and spending
increases daring a downturn
• Followed by offsetting tax increases and spending
restraint during the next upturn
• Such a policy would if properly executed
• reduce the depth of recessions and prevent overheating during
upturns
• While maintaining a sustainable average balance over the cycle.
• Sweden is an example of a country that systematically
follows a counter cyclical fiscal policy
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U.S. Fiscal Policy XIII
• Unfortunately fiscal policy in the U.S. as been pro-cyclical
• Means it has cut taxes and increased spending during booms,
thereby encouraging overheating
• Then raised taxes and cut spending during periods of slack
demand slowing the recovery
• Output gap (difference between actual and trend) should
be positive when the economy is booming and negative
when in a slump
• For the primary structural balance
• Cyclically neutral policy would require the primary structural
balance to stay constant from year to year
• A countercyclical policy would require it to move toward a
surplus when the output gap is positive and into deficit when the
output gap turns negative.
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U.S. Fiscal Policy XIV
• For U.S. fiscal policy has been largely pro-cyclical in recent
years
• Years of prosperity from 2000 to 2007 accompanied by a
movement toward structural deficits – large tax cuts and two
unfunded wars
• Then came a brief counter cyclical interlude in 2008 and
2009 when the Bush and then Obama administrations
undertook stimulus measures to mitigate the effects of the
financial crisis
• However as soon as economy had reached bottom of the
cycle in mid 2009, but while it was still experiencing a large
negative output gap, policy turned pro-cyclical again
• Spending cuts and tax increases began moving the
structural balance back toward surplus
• Resulted in a slow recovery with hardly any narrowing of he
output gap over the past four years.
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U.S. Fiscal Policy XV
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U.S. Fiscal Policy XVI
• Problem 2: U.S. Fiscal Policy is Unsustainable
• The debt chart indicated the U.S. net government debt
growing toward 90% of GDP – trajectory many observers
feel is unsustainable
• Whether or not it is depends on what we mean by the
term “sustainable”
• First perspective – country’s debt is unsustainable if its
current trajectory is such that the government will one
day be unable to pay its bills
• Nonsense for the United States -- which has its own sovereign
currency – can always print money to pay bills.
• Government would basically resort to an inflation tax
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U.S. Fiscal Policy XVII
• Second perspective – mathematical sustainability hinges
on the projected growth path for the future debt given
certain assumptions about
• Tax and spending laws,
• The rate of growth of nominal GDP and
• Nominal interest rates
• The debt will be mathematically sustainable for a country
with a nominal interest rate that is higher than its rate of
growth only if it maintains a small structural surplus
• The U.S. primary structural balance of -4.0% GDP is
therefore unsustainable
• Existing policies may already be moving the primary
structural balance toward surplus
• Or the Fed and Treasury could permanently hold the
nominal rate of interest on government debt below
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nominal rate of growth
U.S. Fiscal Policy XVIII
• Third view – functional sustainability
• Country’s fiscal policy is functionally sustainable if and
only if it has a set of rules and decision making
procedures that adjust fiscal parameters over time to
serve some rational purpose
• No one formula for functional sustainability
• Swedish countercyclical fiscal rules
• Chilean cyclically neutral rules both fit
• Even an annually balanced budget amendment would fit the
criteria, although might harm economy
• Problem the U.S. does not have any workable fiscal
policy rules at all
• No long run budget policy
• No policy for size of deficits or the rate of growth of pubic debt
over a period of years
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CBO Forecasts 01-2015
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U.S. Fiscal Policy XIX
• Bottom Line?
• Is U.S in such a deep fiscal hole we can not possibly get
out?
• Not really – our taxes, expenditures, deficit and even debt
are in the moderate OECD range
• Current fiscal problems could be easily solved
• Problem: country seems to lack political ability to move
forward
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