Transcript Financial Crisis: Causes, Consequenses and Cases

What is a financial crisis?
 Theories on financial crisis
 Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2010
 The Philippines Amidst the Crisis
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The term financial crisis is applied
broadly to a variety of situations in which
some financial institutions or assets
suddenly lose a large part of their value.

In the 19th and early 20th centuries,
many financial crises were associated
with banking panics, and many
recessions coincided with these panics.

Other situations that are often called
financial crises include stock market
crashes and the bursting of other
financial bubbles, currency crises, and
sovereign defaults.
Banking crises
 Speculative bubbles and crashes
 International financial crises
 Wider economic crises
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When a bank suffers a sudden rush of
withdrawals by depositors, this is called a
bank run.

Since banks lend out most of the cash they
receive in deposits, it is difficult for them to
quickly pay back all deposits if these are
suddenly demanded, so a run may leave
the bank in bankruptcy, causing many
depositors to lose their savings unless they
are covered by deposit insurance.

A situation in which bank runs are
widespread is called a systemic banking
crisis or just a banking panic.

A situation without widespread bank
runs, but in which banks are reluctant to
lend, because they worry that they have
insufficient funds available, is often
called a credit crunch.

A financial asset (stock, for example)
exhibits a bubble when its price exceeds
the present value of the future income
(such as interest or dividends that would
be received by owning it to maturity).
If most market participants buy the asset
primarily in hopes of selling it later at a
higher price, instead of buying it for the
income it will generate, this could be
evidence that a bubble is present.
 If there is a bubble, there is also a risk of a
crash in asset prices: market participants
will go on buying only as long as they
expect others to buy, and when many
decide to sell the price will fall.

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When a country that maintains a fixed
exchange rate is suddenly forced to
devalue its currency because of a
speculative attack, this is called a
currency crisis or balance of payments
crisis.

When a country fails to pay back its
sovereign debt, this is called a sovereign
default.

While devaluation and default could both
be voluntary decisions of the government,
they are often perceived to be the
involuntary results of a change in investor
sentiment that leads to a sudden stop in
capital inflows or a sudden increase in
capital flight
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Negative GDP growth lasting two or
more quarters is called a recession.

An especially prolonged recession may
be called a depression, while a long
period of slow but not necessarily
negative growth is sometimes called
economic stagnation.

Since these phenomena affect much
more than the financial system, they are
not usually considered financial crises
per se.

But some economists have argued that
many recessions have been caused in
large part by financial crises.
Marxist Theory
 Coordination Games
 Herding Models
 Learning Models
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Recurrent major depressions in the world
economy at the pace of 20 and 50 years
have been the subject of studies since
Jean Charles Léonard de Sismondi (17731842) provided the first theory of crisis in
a critique of classical political economy’s
assumption of equilibrium between
supply and demand.

Developing an economic crisis theory
become the central recurring concept
throughout Karl Marx’s mature work.
Empirical and econometric research
continue especially in the world systems
theory and in the debate about Nikolai
Kondratiev and the so-called 50-years
Kondratiev waves.
 Major figures of world systems theory, like
Andre Gunder Frank and Immanuel
Wallerstein, consistently warned about the
crash that the world economy is now
facing.
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Mathematical approaches to modeling
financial crises have emphasized that
there is often positive feedback
between market participants' decisions
(strategic complementarity).

According to some theories, positive
feedback implies that the economy can
have more than one equilibrium. There
may be an equilibrium in which market
participants invest heavily in asset markets
because they expect assets to be
valuable, but there may be another
equilibrium where participants flee asset
markets because they expect others to
flee too. Savers withdraw their assets from
the bank because they expect others to
withdraw too.
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It is assumed that investors are fully
rational, but only have partial
information about the economy.

In these models, when a few investors
buy some type of asset, this reveals that
they have some positive information
about that asset, which increases the
rational incentive of others to buy the
asset too.

Even though this is a fully rational
decision, it may sometimes lead to
mistakenly high asset values (implying,
eventually, a crash) since the first
investors may, by chance, have been
mistaken.
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In "adaptive learning" or "adaptive
expectations" models, investors are
assumed to be imperfectly rational, basing
their reasoning only on recent experience.

In such models, if the price of a given asset
rises for some period of time, investors may
begin to believe that its price always rises,
which increases their tendency to buy and
thus drives the price up further.

Likewise, observing a few price
decreases may give rise to a downward
price spiral, so in models of this type
large fluctuations in asset prices may
occur.
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Video Presentation
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On September 15, 2008 the global
investment bank Lehman Brothers filed
for bankruptcy protection, sending shock
waves across the international financial
system.

This was soon followed by other
bankruptcies, bailouts and takeovers of
financial institutions in the US and Europe.
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Subsequently many economies—
Germany, Japan, Singapore and Hong
Kong among others—were declared to
be in recession.

The high point came when the National
Bureau of Economic Research
announced on December 1, 2008 that
the US economy was in recession since
December 2007
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Overall tightening of credit with financial
institutions making both corporate and
consumer credit harder to get
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Financial markets (stock exchanges and
derivative markets) that experienced
steep declines
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Liquidity problems in equity funds and
hedge funds
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Devaluation of the assets underpinning
Insurance contracts and pension funds
leading to concerns about the ability of
these instruments to meet future
obligations
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Increased public debt (public finance)
due to the provision of public funds to
the financial services industry and other
affected industries
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Devaluation of some currencies
(Icelandic crown, some Eastern Europe
and Latin America currencies) and
increased currency volatility
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Exports from developing countries fell
sharply dragging many of them into the
global economic downturn.
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The Philippines was not spared the fallout
from the crisis as GDP growth
decelerated considerably in the fourth
quarter of 2008 and first half of 2009.

Asset prices experienced volatility but
unlike the 1997 East Asian crisis, the
financial sector remained fairly stable

Foreign exchange reserves maintained
an upward trend despite the fall in
exports and larger capital outflows.

Unemployment increased moderately,
but was more pronounced in the
manufacturing sector which felt the
brunt of the slowdown mainly through
the export channel.

Remittances from overseas Filipino
workers continued to grow, however,
albeit at a lower rate

A cause of concern is the widening fiscal
deficit, which is largely due to the need
to increase government expenditures to
offset lower consumption, investment,
and exports.

The Economic Resiliency Plan is a key
component of the Government response
to the crisis and 2009 first half data
indicate modest success

However, another factor behind the
wider fiscal deficit is the weak tax effort
and if this persists, the resources to
finance achievement of the Millennium
Development Goals will likely be
reduced

Economic Resiliency Plan (ERP) – a
PhP330 Billion Fiscal Package geared
towards stimulating the economy
through a mix of government spending,
tax cuts, and public-private partnership
projects
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Social Protection Programs
“Impact of the Global Financial and
Economic Crisis on the Philippines”
 Josef T. Yap, Celia M. Reyes, and Janet
S. Cuenca (PIDS)
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The End