Transcript InternationalFinanance

International Finance

Each country has its own currency (except in Europe,
where many countries have adopted the euro).

International trade therefore involves two currencies –
that of the exporter (which needs to pay bills in its
currency) and that of the buyer (which pays for items
using its currency).
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International Finance

The relative values of the two currencies will affect trade patterns and
ultimately the answers to the questions of WHAT, HOW, and FOR WHOM to
produce.

We will focus on these questions:

What determines the value of one country’s money compared to the value of
another’s?

What causes the international value of currencies to change?

Should governments intervene to limit currency fluctuations?
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Learning Objectives

36-01. Know the sources of foreign exchange demand
and supply.

36-02. Know how exchange rates are established.

36-03. Know how changes in exchange rates affect
prices, output, and trade flows.
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Exchange Rates

Exchange rate: the price of one country's currency in
terms of another’s; the domestic price of a foreign
currency.

If US$1.50 = 1 euro, then US$1 = 0.67 euro.

Exchange rates in terms of each other must be
reciprocals of each other.
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Foreign Exchange Markets

U.S. travelers to Europe have a demand for euros and a supply of dollars.
European visitors to Disney World have a demand for dollars and a supply
of euros.

U.S. exporters of goods to Europe get paid in euros. They have a supply of
euros and a demand for dollars, which they need to pay their bills.

European exporters of goods to the U.S. get paid in dollars. They have a
supply of dollars and a demand for euros.
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Foreign Exchange Markets


The market demand for U.S. dollars originates in
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Foreign demand for American exports.
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Foreign tourists in America.
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Foreign demand for American investments.
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Currency speculators.

Possible government intervention.
The market demand for U.S. dollars represents a market supply of foreign
currency.
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Foreign Exchange Markets

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The market supply of U.S. dollars originates in
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American demand for imports.
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American tourists abroad.

American investments abroad.

Currency speculators.

Possible government intervention.
The market supply of U.S. dollars represents a market demand for foreign
currency.
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The Value of the Dollar

The value of the dollar is indicated by its purchasing power.

A BMW costing 30,000 euros must be priced in dollars if it is to be sold in
the United States.
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If 1 euro = $1.50, then it will be priced at $45,000.
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If the exchange rate changed to 1 euro = $1.60, then the BMW’s price in the
United States would rise to $48,000.

At this higher price, the quantity of BMWs sold will decrease.
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The Value of the Dollar

At a high euro price of the
dollar, fewer will want to buy
dollars and more will want to
sell dollars. There will be a
surplus of dollars, and the
dollar’s euro price will fall.
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The Value of the Dollar

At a low euro price of the
dollar, more will want to buy
dollars and fewer will want to
sell dollars. There will be a
shortage of dollars, and the
dollar’s euro price will rise.

The foreign exchange market
will adjust to its equilibrium
price.
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The Value of the Dollar

Any increase in demand for the dollar or decrease in
supply of the dollar will push the dollar price in euros
up. The dollar appreciates in value.

Any decrease in demand for the dollar or increase in
supply of the dollar will push the dollar price in euros
down. The dollar depreciates in value.
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The Value of the Dollar

When the dollar appreciates against the euro, the euro
depreciates in value relative to the dollar.
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When the dollar depreciates against the euro, the euro
appreciates in value relative to the dollar.
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The Balance of Payments
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The summary of all international money flows is contained in the balance
of payments.
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Balance of payments: a summary record of a country’s international economic
transactions in a given period of time.
The balance of payments is divided into three parts:
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Current account balance (which includes the trade balance).
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Capital account balance.
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Statistical discrepancy.
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The Balance of Payments
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The current account balance includes
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The trade balance:
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Merchandise exports and imports.
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Service exports and imports.
Other money flows:
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Income inflows from U.S. investments abroad.
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Income outflows for foreign-owned U.S. investments.
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Net U.S. government grants to foreigners.
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Net private transfers and pensions.
There is a net dollar outflow in the current account.
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The Balance of Payments
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The capital account balance includes
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Inflow due to foreign purchases of U.S. assets.
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Outflow due to U.S. purchases of foreign assets.
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Increase in U.S. official reserves.
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Increase in foreign official assets in U.S.
There is a net dollar inflow in the capital account.
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The Balance of Payments
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If we had perfect accounting, the outflow in the current account would be
balanced by the inflow in the capital account.
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Because the accounting process has several time lags in collecting data,
the third part of the balance of payments is the statistical discrepancy,
which indeed balances the two accounts.
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Therefore, the balance of payments always must equal zero.
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Market Dynamics
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Review:
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Depreciation: a fall in the price of one currency relative to another.

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Caused by a decrease in demand or an increase in supply of the first currency.
Appreciation: a rise in the price of one currency relative to another.

Caused by an increase in demand or a decrease in supply of the first currency.
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Market Dynamics
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What market forces could cause an increase in demand for the dollar?
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Foreign incomes rise faster than U.S. incomes.
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Foreign prices rise faster than U.S. prices.
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Foreigners have an increased need for U.S. goods.
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U.S. interest rates become higher than in foreign countries.
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Vice versa, and there would be a decrease in demand for the dollar.
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Small changes like these occur all the time, and the $4 trillion foreign
exchange market adjusts to those changes.
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Do Exchange Rates Matter?
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Daily participants in international trade prefer stable
exchange rates to reduce the uncertainty in planning.
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Any exchange rate change automatically alters the
prices of exports and imports of that country, affecting
many business decisions.
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Do Exchange Rates Matter?

Trade deficits, caused by U.S. demand increase for
foreign goods, essentially reduced American jobs as
more products were made abroad.
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The returning capital inflow had foreigners buying U.S.
assets, including government bonds. U.S. foreign debt
and interest costs increased.
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Should the Government
Control Exchange Rates?
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An intervention would be intended to achieve exchange rate stability.
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However, stable exchange rates can lead to other economic effects.

The standard way to eliminate instability in exchange rates is to adopt
fixed exchange rates.
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All major trading countries agree to keep the exchange rates between each
currency fixed.
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Should the Government
Control Exchange Rates?

The easiest way to fix exchange rates is to define each currency’s value
against a common standard, such as a gold standard.
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
Gold standard: an agreement by countries to fix the price of their currencies in
terms of gold.
The problem with fixed exchange rates is that the demand for and the
supply of each currency will continue to fluctuate, and a fixed exchange
rate does not account for this.
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Fixed Exchange Rates
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With fixed exchange rates (at
e2), the increase in demand for
pounds generates a shortage of
pounds.
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More dollars flow out than flow
in, so it creates a balance of
payments (BOP) deficit for the
United States and a BOP surplus
for Britain.
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Fixed Exchange Rates
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What to do?
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Let the exchange rate rise (not
acceptable), or the U.S.
government intervenes by selling
pounds it owns and buying
dollars.
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Also, the U.S. could transfer gold
to Britain for dollars.
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This can be done once or twice,
but cannot be kept up forever.
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Fixed Exchange Rates
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Alternatively, the United States could erect protective barriers to
eliminate the increased demand for British goods.

Or the United States could increase taxes to reduce disposable income and
thereby the demand for imports.

Or interest rates could be raised to slow spending and to draw foreign
currency to the United States.

To do this, the policy focus would have to shift away from full employment
or price stability.
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The Economy Tomorrow
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Currency bailouts.
•
Sometimes a country gets into deep trouble with its balance of payments and
cries to the rest of the world for help.
•
A currency “bailout” is arranged, where the country in trouble is lent reserves
to prop up its currency. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) usually leads
the rescue.
•
Why do this? A problem in one country can cascade into other countries.
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The Economy Tomorrow

Currency bailouts.
•
Why shouldn’t it be done? Some say that bailouts are ultimately self-defeating.
If a country knows it will be bailed out, it might not practice sound economic
policy.
•
The IMF requires the nation to adhere to more prudent monetary, fiscal, and
trade policies.
•
Will other countries need a bailout? There are many reasons a country could
get into trouble in the economy tomorrow.
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Revisiting the Learning
Objectives

36-01. Know the sources of foreign exchange demand
and supply.

The supply and demand for foreign currency reflect the
demands for imports and exports, international
investment, and overseas activities of government (and
tourists).
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Revisiting the Learning
Objectives

36-02. Know how exchange rates are established.

There is a huge market in foreign currency that is
worldwide. Daily changes in demand for and supply of
each currency are immediately incorporated into the
foreign exchange market.

This market will determine the current equilibrium price
between two currencies.
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Revisiting the Learning
Objectives

36-03. Know how changes in exchange rates affect
prices, output, and trade flows.

Currency appreciations make foreign goods more costly to
buyers of imports. Trade flows will decrease. Vice versa
applies.

Currency appreciations make domestically produced goods
more costly to export. Again trade flows will decrease.
Vice versa applies.
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