Transcript 15.1 the consumer price index

The CPI and the
Cost of Living
CHAPTER
15
CHAPTER CHECKLIST
When you have completed your study of this
chapter, you will be able to
1
Explain what the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is and
how it is calculated.
2
Explain the limitations of the CPI as a measure of
the cost of living.
3
Adjust money values for inflation and calculate real
wage rates and real interest rates.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A measure of the average of the prices paid by urban
consumers for a fixed market basket of consumer
goods and services.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Reading the CPI Numbers
The CPI is defined to equal 100 for a period called the
reference base period.
Reference base period
A period for which the CPI is defined to equal 100.
Currently, the reference base period is 19821984.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
In May 2005, the CPI was 194.4.
The average of the prices paid by urban consumers for
a fixed market basket of consumer goods and services
was 94.4 percent higher in May 2005 than it was on the
average during 19821984.
In April 2005, the CPI was 194.6.
The average of the prices paid by urban consumers for
a fixed market basket of consumer goods and services
decreased by 0.2 of a percentage point in May 2005.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Constructing the CPI
Three stages:
• Selecting the CPI basket
• Conducting the monthly price survey
• Calculating the CPI
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
The CPI Basket
Make the relative importance of the items in the CPI
basket the same as in the budget of an average urban
household.
The CPI is calculated each month, but the CPI basket is
not updated each month.
The current CPI basket is based on information
obtained from the Consumer Expenditure Survey
conducted during 2001 and 2002.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Figure 15.1 shows the CPI basket.
This shopping cart is filled with the items that an average
household buys.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
The Monthly Price Survey
Each month, BLS employees check the prices of the
80,000 goods and services in the CPI basket in 30
metropolitan areas.
Because the CPI measures price changes, it is
important that the prices recorded refer to exactly the
same items.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Calculating the CPI
The CPI calculation has three steps:
• Find the cost of the CPI basket at base period
prices.
• Find the cost of the CPI basket at current period
prices.
• Calculate the CPI for the base period and the
current period.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Table 15.1 shows the consumer price index: a simplified
CPI calculation.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CPI =
Cost of CPI basket at current period prices
x 100
Cost of CPI basket at base period prices
For 2000, the CPI is:
For 2003, the CPI is:
$50
x 100 = 100
$50
$70
$50
x 100 = 140
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Measuring Inflation
Inflation rate
The percentage change in the price level from one year
to the next.
Inflation rate =
CPI in current year  CPI in previous yearx 100
CPI in previous year
Inflation rate =
140  120 x 100 = 16.7 percent
120
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Figure 15.2 shows the CPI in part (a) and the inflation rate
in part (b).
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
In part (a), the price level has increased every year. The
rate of increase was rapid during the early 1980s and
slower during the 1990s.
15.1 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
In part (b), the inflation rate was high during the early
1980s, but low during the 1990s.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
Cost of living index
A measure of changes in the amount of money that
people would need to spend to achieve a given
standard of living.
The CPI does not measure the cost of living because
• It does not measure all the components of the cost
of living
• Some components are not measured exactly
So the CPI is possibly a biased measure.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
 Sources of Bias in the CPI
The potential sources of bias in the CPI are
•
•
•
•
New goods bias
Quality change bias
Commodity substitution bias
Outlet substitution bias
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
New Goods Bias
• New goods do a better job than the old goods that
they replace, but cost more.
• The arrival of new goods puts an upward bias into
the CPI and its measure of the inflation rate.
Quality Change Bias
• Better cars and televisions cost more than the
versions they replace.
• A price rise that is a payment for improved quality
is not inflation but might get measured as inflation.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
Commodity Substitution Bias
• If the price of beef rises faster than the price of
chicken, people buy more chicken and less beef.
• The CPI basket doesn’t change to allow for the
effects of substitution between goods.
Outlet Substitution Bias
• If prices rise more rapidly, people use discount
stores more frequently.
• The CPI basket doesn’t change to allow for the
effects of outlet substitution.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
 The Magnitude of the Bias
The Boskin Commission estimated the bias to be 1.1
percentage points per year.
If the measured inflation rate is 3.1 percent a year, most
likely the actual inflation rate is 2.0 percent a year.
To reduce the bias, the BLS has decided to increase the
frequency of its Consumer Expenditure Survey and
revise the CPI basket every two years.
When the BLS revises the CPI basket, the reference
base period does not change.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
Two Consequences of the CPI Bias
Two main consequences of the bias in the CPI are
• Distortion of private agreements
• Increases in government outlays
Distortion of Private Agreements
Many private agreements, such as wage contracts, are
linked to the CPI.
If the CPI is biased, these agreements might deliver an
outcome different from that intended by the parties.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
Suppose that the UAW and GM sign a 3 year wage
deal: In the first year, the wage will be $30 an hour and
will rise by the inflation rate in the next two years.
If the inflation rate is 5 percent a year, the wage rises to
$31.50 an hour in the second year and $33.08 an hour
in the third year.
But if the actual inflation rate is 2 percent a year, the
intended wages in the second and third year are $30.90
an hour and $31.83 an hour.
The workers’ gain is GM’s loss. With thousands of
workers, GM’s loss would be millions of dollars over the
3 years.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
Increases in Government Outlays
Close to a third of federal government outlays are linked
directly to the CPI.
The CPI is used to adjust
• 48 million Social Security benefit payments
• 22 million food stamp payments
• 4 million pensions for retired military personnel,
federal civil servants, and their surviving spouses
• the budget for 27 million school lunches
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
The GDP Deflator: A Better Measure?
In principle, the GDP deflator is not subject to the biases
of the CPI because it uses the basket of goods and
services produced in the current year and the preceding
year.
In practice, the GDP deflator suffers from some of the
CPI’s problems because the Commerce Department
does not directly measure the physical quantities of all
the goods and services that are produced.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
Instead, to estimate quantities, the Commerce
Department divides expenditures by price indexes.
And one of these price indexes is the CPI.
So the biased CPI injects a bias into the GDP deflator.
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
Figure 15.3 shows the two
measures of inflation in part (a) and
the corresponding two measures of
the price level in part (b).
15.2 THE CPI AND THE COST OF LIVING
The two measures of the
inflation rate fluctuate together,
but the CPI measure rises more
rapidly than the GDP deflator
measure.
But the price levels get farther
apart.
Both measures probably
overstate the inflation rate.
15.3 NOMINAL AND REAL VALUES
Dollars and Cents at Different Dates
To compare dollar amounts at different dates, we need
to know the CPI at those dates.
Convert the price of a 2-cent stamp in 1905 into its 2005
equivalent:
Price of stamp in 2005 dollars =
Price of stamp in 1905 dollars x
CPI in 2005
CPI in 1905
= 2 cents x
195.6
9.4
= 42 cents
15.3 NOMINAL AND REAL VALUES
Nominal and Real Values in Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics makes a big issue of the distinction
between nominal values and real values:
• Nominal GDP and real GDP
• Nominal wage rate and real wage rate
• Nominal interest rate and real interest rate
We studied the distinction between and calculation of
nominal and real GDP in Chapter 20. Here, we’ll look at
the other two.
15.3 NOMINAL AND REAL VALUES
Nominal and Real Wage Rates
Nominal wage rate
The average hourly wage rate measured in current
dollars.
Real wage rate
The average hourly wage rate measured in the dollars
of a given reference base year.
15.3 NOMINAL AND REAL VALUES
To calculate the real wage rate, we divide the nominal
wage rate by the CPI and multiply by 100.
That is,
Nominal wage rate in 2002
Real wage rate in 2002 =
Real wage rate in June 2002 =
x 100
CPI in 2002
$14.68 x 100 = $8.16
179.9
The $8.16 amount is in 19821984 dollars.
15.3 NOMINAL AND REAL VALUES
Figure 15.4 shows
nominal and real wage
rates: 1975–2005.
The nominal wage rate
has increased every year
since 1975.
The real wage rate
increased briefly during
the late 1970s, decreased
through the mid-1990s,
and then increased
slightly.
15.3 NOMINAL AND REAL VALUES
Nominal and Real Interest Rates
Nominal interest rate
The percentage return on a loan expressed in dollars.
Real interest rate
The percentage return on a loan, calculated by
purchasing power—the nominal interest rate adjusted
for the effects of inflation.
Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation rate
15.3 NOMINAL AND REAL VALUES
Figure 15.5 shows real
and nominal interest
rates: 1965–2005.
During the 1970s,
the real interest rate
became negative.
The nominal interest
rate increased during
the high-inflation 1980s.
The CPI in YOUR Life
Think about your student loan—or if you don’t have one,
think about Gus’s $80,000 loan.
Suppose that the CPI rises by 3 percent a year, each year
from now through 2025.
How much will a $100 repayment cost you, in 2005 dollars,
when you start to pay off your loan in 2015?
How much will a $100 repayment cost you, in 2005 dollars,
when you make your final payment in 2025?
What is the real interest rate that you will have paid?
Would you be better off or worse off if the CPI began to rise
at 5 percent a year?