Transcript Financing Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. National strategies and

FINANCING EDUCATION IN
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
National strategies and aid architecture
KEITH HINCHLIFFE
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OUTLINE
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Education financing – amounts, distributions and sources.
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Recent trends, (mainly) governments and donors
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Future financing scenarios responding to:
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changes in social demand for education
global economic downturn and future economic growth
evolution of government development strategies
changes in donor priorities and behaviours
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Education structures and patterns of financing vary
considerably across countries.
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RECENT TRENDS IN EDUCATION EXPENDITURE
(i)
NATIONAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
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Basic expenditure data limited for 1/3 SSA countries. But
several positive messages.
High rates of economic growth post 2000
Public EE as % GDP increased significantly since 2000.
Highest developing regional share
EE as % of TGE – again highest regional share
Overall EE grew by 7.7% a year 1999–2007
Expenditure share for primary fell from 49% to 45%:
secondary share (28%) much lower than other regions
BUT - wide variations in all of these measures.
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(ii) DEVELOPMENT AID
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SSA largest regional recipient of education aid but share fallen
Constant share of education in total aid
2007 direct aid to education: 30% primary, 11% secondary,
26% tertiary (32% level unspecified)
Trends – reduction in primary and increase in tertiary
Wide differences in allocations across countries – conflict
3 donors provide 40% of all aid for education, 8 donors provide
80%.
Many small donors high priority education, and basic education.
(iii) HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE
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Aggregate country/regional data very patchy
HE in public education: recent trends to reduce costs in primary
and increase in post secondary
HE in private education: no regional estimates of enrolments in
privately-funded schools
FUTURE EDUCATION EXPENDITURE
(i) Enrolment growth
1999-2007 enrolments increased 51% primary, 73% secondary, 94% tertiary
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2007.
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
NER
73
27
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Primary NER> 85
60-85
< 60
No data
GER
99
34
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14 countries
14 countries
6 countries
8 countries
Future
 2007, GIR 115% likely to fall
 increase in primary survival and P/S transition rates, plus
expanded primary intake will result in lower secondary
pressures.
 Lower and higher secondary differentiation
 Variations across country groups.
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(ii) Economic growth and global downturn
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Limited impact so far. GDP growth of 7% a year 2006 and 2007
– followed by 5.5%, 2.0%, 4.8% and projected 6.8% in
2011(IMF)
Public expenditures reduced by less than economic growth
decline
Remittances may have fallen, but unemployment increase in
DCs less than anticipated
Fears of double dip with consequences for exporters
(commodity and consumer)
CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES
Governments
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PRSP protection for basic
Growth protection post basic?
Budget strategy – overall or aggregation of parts?
Future pressures on education expenditure
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teacher salaries
school fees and expansion of subsidies
Households
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Primary – private schools and perceptions of quality
Secondary – quality and transition rates
Tertiary – transition rates, cost sharing
Donors – overall aid
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Limited impact of recession so far
‘Gleneagles’ not reached, but aid share trends positive
Use of aid – security etc.
Donors – aid for education
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Distribution across levels
Modalities and sector/budget support
Conflict-affected countries
Multiple donor strategies
BRICS
EFA-FTI