Transcript Trends in Fisheries and food

Trends in Fisheries
and food
Roger Martini
25 January 2012
This presentation represents the view of the author and may not reflect that of the
OECD Secretariat or its member countries.
Outline
• Macro Economy developments
• Fishery Outlook
• Policy Outlook
Macro Outlook
Lots of macro risks
• Outcomes depend on how events like euro
crisis play themselves out
• Fiscal retrenchment will continue
• Food prices will remain high
Estonian food price inflation highest
in OECD
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Slow GDP Growth in near term
2010
2011
2012
2013
United States
3.0
1.7
2.0
2.5
Euro area
1.8
1.6
0.2
1.4
Japan
4.1
-0.3
2.0
1.6
3.1
1.9
1.6
2.3
7.5
10.4
9.9
6.1
4.0
2.8
3.4
9.3
7.7
6.3
4.0
3.2
3.2
8.5
7.2
6.1
4.1
3.6
3.9
9.5
8.2
6.5
4.1
4.7
Total OECD
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Russian Federation
South Africa
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 90 database.
Estonian Growth to be above
OECD average
2011
2012
2013
GDP
8.0%
3.2%
4.4%
Consumption
3.5%
3.7%
4.3%
Consumer prices
5.3%
3.0%
3.2%
Unemployment
12.3
13.1
13.0
Most Growth will come outside
OECD
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Non-OECD
OECD
-4
-6
-8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Fisheries Outlook
Growth rates of aquaculture and
capture fisheries will slow
• Growth to slow to 2.8% from last decade’s
5.6%
Aquaculture to be larger than
capture fisheries by 2015
Kt
Aquaculture growing everywhere, but
China almost 60% of total
Total= 54.6 mt
Total=72.4
mt
* Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively
Prices will continue to increase
Real prices higher than in 2000s
And demand growth will continue
apace
• Consumption to reach 17.9kg per person
in 2020
And demand growth will continue
apace
* Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively
Trade in fish products will outpace
demand growth
,100
,90
Developing countries or areas
,80
Developed countries or areas
,70
,60
,50
Developing
,40
,30
,20
Developed
,10
,0
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Processing residue to become
more important source of fish meal
Aquaculture demand will boost fish
meal prices relative to oil
7
6
5
Fish meal
4
3
2
1
0
Fish oil
Russian net imports to increase
China future prospects
• Labour costs increase
• Resources may limit aquaculture growth
• Demand will continue to grow with
economy
• So, trade may start to move towards Asia
Policy Outlook
Rebuilding of fisheries will become
priority
• Rebuilding well under way in United
States EEZ fisheries
• Stock declines will force retrenchment in
many fisheries
• Rebuilding seen as key to improved
profitability in many cases.
• OECD work shows benefit of stakeholder
involvement and broad objectives
Certification will continue to gain
prominence
• Capture fisheries moving into next phase
of certification growth
• Aquaculture certification will grow
strongly, driven by retail and consumer
demand
Retail dominance will help drive
certification
Supermarket Shares of Sales of Fish and Fish Products
Country
Supermarket share of total fish Supermarket share of total retail sales of
and fish product sales %
fish and fish products, %
France
59
85
Germany
50
85
UK
50
90
Spain
45
60
Italy
42
60
United States
40
90
Source: FAO, OECD, Montfort (personal communication)
Market mechanisms will dominate
• Tradable Quotas seen as solution to
overfishing, overcapacity
• More efficient fleets will drive profitability,
improved stewardship
OECD review of Estonian fisheries
• Sensible system in place
• Sector currently limited in species and
markets, so finding growth will be a
challenge.
• The market-based system in place is a
comparative advantage that will help
ensure that any growth is sustainable