Transcript 071124_EE Slides

Exceptional Event Slides
Nov 25, 2007
EE Analysis Wiki
Evidence Needed to Flag Data as Exceptional
• The event was not reasonably controllable or preventable
• Would be no exceedances or violation but for the event.
• The event is in excess of historical values.
• Clear casual relationship of data and the event
1. The event not reasonably controllable/ preventable
Show that the cause is in category of uncontrollable/preventable
Transported Pollution
Transported African, Asian
Dust; Smoke from Mexican
fires & Mining dust, Ag.
Emissions
Natural Events
Human Activities
Nat. Disasters.; High Wind
Events; Wildland Fires;
Stratospheric Ozone;
Prescribed Fires
Chemical Spills; Industrial
Accidents; July 4th; Structural
Fires; Terrorist Attack
2. No exceedance/violation but for the event.
Show that the exceedance is explicitly caused by the exceptional event
Exceptional Event
NOT Exceptional Event
NOT Exceptional Event
The 'exceptional'
concentration raises the
level above the standard.
A valid EE to be flagged.
Controllable sources are
sufficient to cause
exceedance. Not a 'but
for‘, not an EE.
No exceedance, hence,
there is no justification for
an EE flag.
.
3. The event is in excess of historical values.
Evidence from comparison of flagged data with historical values
.
Frequency Distribution
Time Series Analysis
The 'exceptional' concentration is
an outlier on the frequency.
Event data deviate from the regular
seasonal concentration pattern.
4. Clear support of event causality with data.
EE causality may come from multiple lines of observational evidence
Chemical Signature
Source & Transport
Spatial Pattern
Temporal Pattern
The EE sample shows
the fingerprints of
'exceptional‘ source.
Clear evidence of
transport from known
source region.
Unusual spatial pattern
as evidence of
Exceptional source.
Unusual concentration
spike as indication of
an Exceptional Event.
EE Tools: Near-Real-Time Data Console
Near-Real-Time Data for May 11, 07 GA Smoke
Displayed on DataFed Analysts Console
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Pane 1,2: MODIS visible satellite images – smoke pattern
Pane 3,4: AirNOW PM2.5, Surf. Visibility – PM surface conc.
Pane 5,6: AirNOW Ozone, Surf. Wind – Ozone, transport pattern
Pane 7,8: OMI satellite Total, Tropospheric NO2 – NO2 column conc.
Pane 9,10: OMI satellite Aerosol Index, Fire P-xels – Smoke, Fire
Pane 11,12: GOCART, NAAPS Models of smoke – Smoke forecast
Console Links
May 07, 2007,
May 08, 2007
May 09, 2007
May 10, 2007
May 11, 2007
May 12, 2007
May 13, 2007
May 14, 2007
May 15, 2007
May 2007 Georgia Fires
The fires in S. Georgia emitted intense smoke throughout May 07.
May 5, 2007
May 12, 2007
Google Earth Video (small 50MB, large 170mb)
May 07 Georgia Fires:
User-Supplied Qualitative Observations
Searching and pruning user-contributed Internet content yielded rich, but
qualitative description of the May 07 Georgia Smoke Event.
Google and Technorati blog seaches
yielded entries on GA Smoke.
Videos of smoke were found
on YouTube
Smoke
. images, were also found
searching Flickr and Google
Visually pruned blogs, videos and images were bookmarked and tagged fore later analysis
GEOSS Interoperability Demo:
June 2006 Canadian Smoke Impact
Link to Ppt, Video 800/1200