Transcript Graeme Hyslop Presentation

Horizon Scanning
Graeme Hyslop
Productive Connections: A knowledge generating and
sharing process for thinking practitioners and practical
thinkers
Public
Value
Why we do
what we do
Underlying
Philosophy
or core
purpose
Appropriate
Leadership
Model
How we lead
What we do
Framework to
support &
nurture
organisational
& sectoral
leadership
Horizon
scanning
How we help to
plan what we do
next
Strategic
Foresight
& Change
Readiness
building
Evolution
narrative
Using our history
to strengthen
our future
Advocacy
and lobbying
tool:
confidence
builder
Review of Scotland’s Colleges
Extract from scenario development project report
The scenario matrix
“Enlightened
smart and
content”
Comparatively
less successful on
international
indices, lower
GDP/capita low
added value
economy
“Responsibility for learning”
More choice based and individual response to
learning opportunities, higher level of personal
responsibility for learning
“McTiger”
“Nature and shape of Scotland’s economy”
“Planning
to survive”
“Stewardship
Society”
High levels of planning direction and
intervention on the focus of learning
Highly connected,
high GDP/capita
knowledge based
economy
“Enlightened, smart and content”
Overview
• Scotland in 2021 is fairly comparable with Scotland
2006. In particular there is a similar feel to civic
society and the learning market but the effects of
‘certainties’ such as demographic change and further
environmental decay have now made considerable
impacts.
• This is a Scotland which whilst not amongst the
richest nations of the world has chosen not to
continue to chase growth, has a highly educated
population and is recognised as one of the most
enlightened small countries in the world.
“Stewardship Society”
Overview
• Scotland’s progress has been central to European
success and in particular the growth of the EU’s small
country economies. Through the path to 2021 Scotland
has been very successful in attracting private sector
investment,
has
developed
an
internationally
renowned and thriving social economy optimising the
input of a strong voluntary sector.
• Successive government policies and partnerships with
key national economic stakeholders has continued to
provide a sustainable genuinely mixed economy with
well rewarded private, public and voluntary career
opportunities.
“Planning to survive”
Overview
• A Scotland which has never quite connected
economically despite early promise and puts its faith
in planning and directive policies of government to
stabilise the economy and elements of societal
breakdown. For some a comfort zone country with
high dependency on the state; for others a country
with restrictions and barriers to creativity and
individualism.
• A Scotland in 2021 with major government
intervention and regulation in the economy, society
and the learning system. A safe and secure but risk
averse and protectively rationalist nation.
“McTiger”
Overview
• The Scottish economy of 2021 is more successful
than in 2006 and society is significantly more
consumerist in its nature.
It enjoys a strong
education system focused primarily on the demands
of individual learners.
• Challenges for Scottish 2021 society include dealing
with labour shortages in key areas of the public
sector, pockets of high social deprivation, a
breakdown in earlier traditional community values,
rural depopulation and environmental degradation.
Scotland has become a less tolerant nation. Given
the opportunities that are available to individuals,
the nation is generally less inclined to support those
“not pulling their weight”.
Using a strategy robustness matrix to test resilience of
core strategic actions against plausible futures
Scenarios/
Recommendations
Differences Scotland’s
Colleges Makes
SLALE
Accountability &
Governance
Colleges’ Strategic
Future
Learning points from
‘future’
McTiger
Planning to
survive
Enlightened
smart and
content
Stewardship
Robustness of
strategic
elements
Using a strategy robustness matrix to test resilience of
core strategic actions against plausible futures
Scenarios/
Recommendations
Differences Scotland’s
Colleges Makes
McTiger

Planning to
survive

Enlightened
smart and
content

Stewardship

SLALE
Accountability &
Governance
Colleges’ Strategic
Future
Learning points from
‘future’
How do the headline recommendations from this
work stream pan out in each of the four plausible
futures?
Robustness of
strategic
elements
Possibly only
viable in one
of the four
futures
Using a strategy robustness matrix to test resilience of
core strategic actions against plausible futures
Scenarios/
Recommendations
McTiger
Differences
Scotland’s Colleges
Makes
?
SLALE
?
Accountability &
Governance
?
Colleges’ Strategic
Future
?
Learning points from
‘future’
What is this
particular
future telling
us about our
plans?
Planning
to survive
Enlightened
smart and
content
Stewardship
Robustness of
strategic
elements
Using a strategy robustness matrix to test resilience of
core strategic actions against plausible futures
Scenarios/
Recommendations
McTiger
Planning to
survive
Enlightened
smart and
content
Stewardship
Robustness of
strategic
elements
Differences Scotland’s
Colleges Makes




Possibly only
viable in one
of the four
futures
SLALE




Significantly
robust
Accountability &
Governance



Colleges’ Strategic
Future





Learning points from
‘future’
How do the headline recommendations from
this work stream pan out in each of the four
plausible futures?
Think again?
What happens
to the aims in
one scenario?
Some quick reflections on futures
• Futures work is a leap into the unknown for many!
• Need to carry people with you through a process that isn’t
always easy to grasp and for what purposes not readily
perceived.
• Avoid use of technical, professional jargon and exclusive
language in group sessions.
• Explain clearly what futures outputs, such as scenarios,
can do for those involved; horizon scanning requires the
use of multi purpose tools.
• The tools can be applied to plans, policies and publications
as a form of ‘future proofing’.