Transcript wto reform - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

WTO REFORM
Uri Dadush
Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace
September 15, 2009
WTO Reform: Time to Start is Now
• WTO is an essential plank of globalization
• But has become sidelined on liberalization
• Needed: a more flexible approach to
negotiations
• Reform process should start with coming
Ministerial in Geneva
WTO, an essential plank of
globalization
• Some 370 disputes filed
• Accession of China and 24 other countries
• Agreements on Telecommunications and
Financial Services
• Aid for Trade
Sidelined on Liberalization
World Real GDP and Trade
Annual Percentage change
20
15
10
World Trade
5
Real GDP
0
-5
-10
-15
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2009
2006
2008
Why so difficult?: Combination of
Factors
• Tougher issues (agriculture)
• Increased complexity (services)
+++++
• More numerous and diverse participants
• Increased influence of large players (India,
Brazil)
• Increased influence of groups (LDCs)
+++++
• Single Undertaking and Consensus Rule
Reform Agenda Outline 1: Towards
Plurilaterals
• On single issues or small number of linked
issues
• Criteria for minimizing adverse effects on nonmembers
• Preferential treatment for poorest countries
• Criteria for accession of non-members
• Subject to dispute settlement
Reform Outline 2: Harness RTAs
• Don’t frown on (or fight!) all RTAs, but
promote well designed ones
• Well designed RTAs have low external barriers,
simple and liberal rules of origin, and are
broad and deep in their coverage
Reform Outline 3: Assist members
design own trade reforms
• Runs counter to mercantilist ethos of trade
negotiators, yet….
• Most trade reform is autonomous
• WB and IMF regularly engaged in advising
countries without old fashioned
conditionality
• Can be done while retaining some negotiating
chips (bindings)
• Trade Policy Reviews a good instrument
Reform Outline 4: Opportunistic
Multilateralization
• Recognize that current “multilateral”
agreements are rife with exceptions
• Extend “flexible geometries” (plurilateral and
regional)
• Take modest steps to bind pre-existing
liberalization
• Bind in specific sectors
WTO Reform: Time to Start is Now
• WTO is an essential plank of globalization
• But has become sidelined on liberalization
• Needed: a more flexible approach to
negotiations
• Reform process should start with coming
Ministerial in Geneva