Transcript Greece

Greece
Yavor Yanakiev
Aleksandar Temelkov
Today we will present:
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Geographic and Demographic Background
Historical development
GDP Growth and the Crisis
Unemployment
Inflation
Current Account
Trade Balance and Budget Deficit
Monetary and Fiscal policy
Geographic and Demographic
Background
• Population: 11,262,000
(2008)
• Labor force 4.96 million
(2008)
• Labor force by occupation
agriculture (12%)
industry (20%)
services (68%) - 2004
• Unemployment 8% (2008)
Historical development
• Impacts of the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne (enlarging population, new
skills brought)
• After World War II, Greece experienced the "Greek economic
miracle"; GDP growth averaged 7% between 1950 and 1973.
• The rapid economic growth was mainly due to the drastic
devaluation of the drachma, which attracted foreign investment
• Another key factor was the development of the tourism and the
service sector in the country
• Delors Package Number 2 (25 billion 1994-1999) infrastructure,
training, etc.
GDP Growth
• GDP - $351.3 billion (2008)
• GDP – Composition by sector
agriculture: 3.2%
industry: 20.6%
services: 76.3% (2007)
GDP And the Crisis
• With the economic crisis striking with full strength, number of
tourists is expected to plummet which will lower Greece’s
economic growth
• If the crisis hits countries like Turkey and Bulgaria hard, Greece
will take huge losses as its main investment was directed to
acquisition of banks in these countries
• On the bright side, Greece is expected to be one of the few
countries in EU with positive economic growth in 2009
Unemployment
• Riots Dec 2008
• Forbs: rose to 9.4 percent in January from 8.9 percent in December
resulting in 465,692 unemployed people.
• Greece's conservative government to spend an additional euro2.5
billion ($3.3 billion) on job programs as the country's unemployment
rate jumped.
Inflation
•1993 EMU
•1994 ECB
•2001 EURO
Current Account
• Olympic games
2004
• September 2007
• November 2008
Exports by Country
Countries
12/2005
12/2006
12/2007
8.681,2
10.562,9
11.198,2
Germany
1.748,7
1.878,5
1.987,7
Italy
1.476,6
1.861,9
1.855,1
Cyprus
724,0
890,6
1.121,1
Bulgaria
817,0
1.052,5
1.115,6
United Kingdom
943,0
991,8
938,1
2.157,2
2.623,5
2.509,9
Turkey
754,1
848,0
620,4
Albania
348,1
373,6
452,9
FYROM
327,2
373,3
389,9
3.210,5
3.465,3
3.514,7
USA
736,3
725,8
692,4
United Arab Emirates
209,7
190,5
199,9
14.049,0
16.651,7
17.222,8
E.U.
Europe (excluding E.U.)
Other countries
Total
Source: National Statistical Service
In million Euro
Exports By Commodities
Categories - Items
12/2005
12/2006
12/2007
3,3
3,6
4,6
2 FOOD PRODUCTS
1.409,6
1.636,2
1.577,5
3 FRUIT & VEGETABLES
1.082,5
1.198,2
1.305,8
4 BEVERAGES
132,0
135,1
148,1
5 TOBACCO
427,1
373,1
354,3
30,1
31,7
35,8
7 RAW MATERIALS & SEMI-FINISHED PRODUCTS
339,7
400,2
279,6
8 ORES & MINERALS
304,1
609,2
452,9
9 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
1.311,7
2.148,5
2.080,5
10 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
8.144,3
9.131,1
9.840,3
11 OTHER ITEMS
864,5
984,7
1.143,4
GRAND TOTAL
14.049,0
16.651,7
17.222,8
1 LIVESTOCK
6 LIVESTOCK FEED
Imports and Trade Balance
Budget Deficit
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EU regulations
Reasons
The public debt of Greece as to
the end of 2008 exceeded 93% of
GDP
Greece violated the budget deficit
rules of the European Union with
deficit amounting to -3.4%- EU
(2.5%)
The public debt of Greece is
expected to rise up to 105.6% of
GDP until the end of 2009
Credit agencies constantly lower
Greece’s credit rating, forcing it to
borrow at higher interest rates
which further increases its debt
Monetary and Fiscal policy
• EU with the ECB
• Recent Changes in Government Fiscal
Policy
Thank you!
We are open for questions…