Transcript No Slide Title

VAT Missing Trader Intra-Community
(MTIC) fraud and Trade Statistics
David Ruffles
Office for National Statistics
London
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Simple MTIC fraud
(‘A’)
EU
Supplier
£1,000,000 - VAT Nil
(‘B’)
UK Missing
Trader
2
Simple MTIC fraud
(‘A’)
EU
Supplier
£1,000,000 - VAT Nil
Tax Loss - £157,500
(‘B’)
UK Missing
Trader
£900,000 + VAT
(‘C’)
UK Buffer
Trader
3
Simple MTIC fraud
(‘A’)
EU
Supplier
£1,000,000 - VAT Nil
Tax Loss - £157,500
(‘B’)
UK Missing
Trader
£900,000 + VAT
(‘D’)
UK Buffer
Trader
4
£ 920,000 + VAT
(‘C’)
UK Buffer
Trader
Simple MTIC fraud
(‘A’)
EU
Supplier
(‘E’)
UK Broker
£1,000,000 - VAT Nil
Tax Loss - £157,500
(‘B’)
UK Missing
Trader
£900,000 + VAT
£ 950,000 + VAT
(‘D’)
UK Buffer
Trader
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£920,000 + VAT
(‘C’)
UK Buffer
Trader
Simple MTIC fraud
£1,000,000 - VAT Nil
(‘A’)
EU
Supplier
£970,000 - VAT Nil
(‘E’)
UK Broker
Tax Loss - £157,500
(‘B’)
UK Missing
Trader
£900,000 + VAT
£ 950,000 + VAT
(‘D’)
UK Buffer
Trader
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£ 920,000 + VAT
(‘C’)
UK Buffer
Trader
Impact on statistics
• Effect on Intrastat data collection
– Exports are captured; Imports are not
• Increasing imports worsens
– Balance of Trade and Current Account Deficit
• ESA95/SNA say correct treatment is to increase
imports
– Affects Expenditure measure of GDP
• Estimates relate to carousel trade in mobile phones
and computer components
• No estimate of carousel trade in other goods
• No estimate of acquisition fraud
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The scale of the problem in UK
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£ billion
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1.7
2.8
7.1
11.5
4.3
% of imports of
goods & services
0.7
1.0
2.4
3.8
1.4
Quality of fraud adjustments
• Estimations include information uncovered by
Customs operational activity
• They are corroborated by:
reduced EU trade asymmetries (UK trade data now
-
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more consistent with other countries’ data for their
trade within UK)
smaller imbalances in the relevant products in the
ONS annual supply and use analysis
smaller alignment adjustment in the quarterly national
accounts
Current Work
• Project Board investigating the impact of MTIC on UK
Trade Statistics
• Research alternative methodologies, and whether
acquisition fraud could be estimated
• Investigating the quality of European Sales List (ESL)
data
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Future Work
• Continue to monitor MTIC activity
• Compare ESL information –
– Arrivals, Other Member States ESL sales, VAT
declarations
– Dispatches, ESL sales, VAT declarations
• Investigate how best to incorporate the adjustments
into the Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS)
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