Transcript Economic growth

CHAPTER
28
Long-Run Growth
(長期成長)
Prepared by: Fernando Quijano
and Yvonn Quijano
講授﹕黃璿芳
© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Economic Growth
(經濟成長)
• Economic growth refers to an increase in the
total output of an economy(指一經濟體內實質總
產出,暨實質GDP,的增加）.
Defined by some economists as the increase of
real GDP per capita(平均每位國民實質GDP的增
加）.
• Modern economic growth is the period of rapid
and sustained increase in real output per capita
that began in the Western World with the
Industrial Revolution.(現代經濟的成長；指自西歐
工業革命以來至今的期間內，實質產出不斷快速成
長的現象。)
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Industrial Revolution
• 經濟史學家給某些國家在經濟和社會組織
上發生重大變動的時期所取的名稱。
•
首先是指英國從1750-1850期間,
•
後又指歐洲大陸上某些國家從1830年起，
•
美國從1860年起，
•
日本從1870年起，及
•
俄國從1990年起
•
在這段時期家庭作坊制度為工廠所取代，
•
工業革命在英國是從各種機器的發明、蒸汽動力的採用、勞動分工、
公路、鐵路和運河交通的發展開始，
•
在此時期，亞當‧斯密、馬爾薩斯和李嘉圖等放任主義學說出現、
海外市場的開闢、工人人平均產量大幅上升，以及生活水平的普遍
提高。
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
為何經濟會成長?
• Colleen and Bill on an island 的例子
Agriculture and simple shelter
Shifted their resources into building a more comfortable home.
Physical capital has been accumulated: a better house, tools, and
a water system.
Human capital has been accumulated: knowledge, skills and
talents.
At any given time, they face limits on what they could produce.
This limits were imposed by the existing state of their technical
knowledge and the resources at their disposal.
Over time, they expanded their production possibilities, developed
new technologies, accumulated capital, and made their labor
more productive.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Economic Growth Shifts PPF
(經濟成長移動生產可能疆界)
A’
a1
B’
A
a2
B
b1
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
b2
• The production possibility
frontier(生產可能疆界):shows
all the combinations of output
that can be produced if all
society’s scarce resources
are fully and efficiently
employed.
• Economic growth shifts
society’s production
possibility frontier up and
to the right.
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Growth Process:From Agriculture to Industry
(經濟成長的過程：由農業至工業)
• Before the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain,
every society in the world was agrarian.(在大不列
顛國工業革命發生之前，世界各地皆處在農業社會
的狀態。)
• Beginning in England around 1750, technical
change and capital accumulation increased
productivity in two important industries:
agriculture and textiles.(工業革命均在1750年起始
於英格蘭，當時由於技術的變化和資本的累積，使
得農業和紡織業的生產力大為增加。)
• More could be produced with fewer resources,
leading to new products, more output, and wider
choice.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Sources of Economic Growth
(經濟成長的原動力)
•
An aggregate production function(總體的生產函數): is the
mathematical representation of the relationship between inputs
and national output, or gross domestic product.(以數學的方式表達
出一國的投入生產要素與產出間的關係。)
•
If you think of GDP as a function of both labor and capital,
i.e., Y = A F(L, K, H)
•
you can see that an increase in Real GDP (Y) can come about
through:
1.
An increase in the labor supply, L (來自於勞動力供給的增加)
2.
An increase in physical or human capital, K or H (物質資本或
人力資本的增加)
3.
An increase in total factor productivity, A (總要素生產力,或稱技
術變動,的增加)
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
An Increase in Labor Supply
(增加勞動力的供給)
• An increasing labor supply can generate more output, but if the
capital stock remains fixed, the new labor will be less productive
(diminishing returns).(如果其他生產要素的投入數量不變，則隨著勞
動力投入數量增加，最終將使得額外再投入一單位的勞動力，所額
外帶來的產出逐漸遞減，呈現邊際報酬遞減的現象。)
• 例﹕爸爸的工廠由10人=>11人,
產出由1000雙鞋子=>1050雙鞋子,
Q/L由100雙鞋子 => 95雙鞋子
• Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo predicted a gloomy future as
population outstripped the land’s capacity to produce. However,
they forgot the impact of technological change and capital
accumulation.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Labor Productivity(生產力)
Labor Productivity(生產力)=
Q
L
Output per worker hour.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Economic Growth From
an Increase in Labor
• Growth in the labor force, without a corresponding
increase in the capital stock or technological change
might lead to growth of output but declining productivity.
Economic Growth from an Increase in Labor – More Output but
Diminishing Returns and Lower Labor Productivity
PERIOD
QUANTITY
OF LABOR
L
(HOURS)
QUANTITY
OF CAPITAL
K
(UNITS)
TOTAL
OUTPUT
Y
(UNITS)
MEASURED
LABOR
PRODUCTIVITY
Y/L
1
100
100
300
3.0
2
110
100
320
2.9
3
120
100
339
2.8
4
130
100
357
2.7
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Economic Growth From
an Increase in Labor
Employment, Labor Force, and Population Growth, 1947 – 1999
CIVILIAN
NONINSTITUTIONAL
POPULATION
OVER 16 YEARS
OLD
(MILLIONS)
CIVILIAN
LABOR
FORCE
Number
Percentage
(Millions) of Population
EMPLOYMENT
(MILLIONS)
1947
101.8
59.4
58.3
57.0
1960
117.3
69.6
59.3
65.8
1970
137.1
82.8
60.4
78.7
1980
167.7
106.9
63.7
99.3
1990
189.2
125.8
66.5
118.8
1999
207.8
139.4
67.1
133.5
+ 104.1
+ 134.7
Percentage change, 1947 – 1999
Annual rate
Source: Economic Report of the President, 2000, Table B-33.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
+ 1.4%
+ 134.2
+1.7%
+ 1.7%
註：Labor force=employment+unemployment
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Increases in Physical Capital
(物質資本的增加)
• An increase in the stock of capital can increase output, even if
it is not accompanied by an increase in the labor force.(當其
他生產要素的投入不變時，增資物質資本存量，可增加產出。)
增加capital的投入，可能會造成： (1) More Output, (2)Diminishing Returns
to Added Capital, (3)Higher Measured Labor Productivity
PERIOD
QUANTITY
OF LABOR
L
(HOURS)
QUANTITY
OF CAPITAL
K
(UNITS)
TOTAL
OUTPUT
Y
(UNITS)
MEASURED
LABOR
PRODUCTIVITY
Y/L
1
100
100
300
3.0
2
100
110
310
3.1
3
100
120
319
3.2
4
100
130
327
3.3
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Increases in Physical Capital
(物質資本的增加)
• The increase in capital stock is the
difference between gross investment and
depreciation , i.e.,
Capital stock =
accumulated gross investment - depreciation
• Capital has been increasing faster than
the labor force since 1960. When capital
expands more rapidly than labor, the ratio
of capital to labor (K/L) increases, and this
too is a source of increasing productivity.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Increases in Physical Capital
Fixed Private Nonresidential Net Capital Stock(私人部門非住宅用的物
質資本存量), 1960 – 1998
(Billions of 1996 Dollars)
EQUIPMENT
STRUCTURES
1960
672.5
2,047.7
1970
954.2
2,788.3
1980
1,988.9
3,646.3
1990
2,721.0
4,778.6
1998
3,797.3
5,389.2
Percentage change, 1960 – 1998
+ 464.7
+ 163.2
Annual rate
+ 4.7%
+ 2.6%
Source: Survey of Current Business, April 2000, computed from Tables 1 and 2, p. 21.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Human Capital(人力資本)
工人的知識和技
能由受教育、受
訓練或經驗中所
獲得。
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Increases in Human Capital
(增加人力資本：美國人民受教育的狀況)
Years of School Completed by People Over 25 Years Old, 1940 – 1998
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1998
PERCENTAGE
WITH LESS
THAN 5
YEARS OF
SCHOOL(受少於五
年的教育)
13.7
11.1
8.3
5.5
3.6
NA
NA
PERCENTAGE
WITH 4 YEARS
OF HIGH SCHOOL
OR MORE(高中以
上者)
24.5
34.3
41.1
52.3
66.5
77.6
82.8
PERCENTAGE
WITH 4 YEARS
OF COLLEGE
OR MORE(大專以
上者)
4.6
6.2
7.7
10.7
16.2
21.3
24.4
NA = not available.
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1990, Table 215; and 1999, Table 263.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Increases in Productivity
(增加生產力)
•
Growth that cannot be explained by
increases in the quantity of inputs can be
explained only by an increase in the
productivity of those inputs.(未能以投入
要素的數量增加來解釋成長的部份，將之
解釋為是由生產力增加才造成的成長。)
•
Factors that affect the productivity of an
input include technological change, other
advances in knowledge, and economies
of scale.(每種投入要素皆有其生產力，影
響投入要素生產力的因素包括科技的變動，
知識的增進和規模經濟等。)
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Productivity的衡量方式
1. Labor Productivity(生產力)：output per
worker hour.
2. Total factor Productivity(總要素生產力)
Y=A F(L，K，H)
Y表GDP(output)
A表總要素生產力
L表勞動力
K表物質資本
H表人力資本
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
科技變化促使生產力提升
•
•
Technological change affects productivity
in two stages:
•
Invention(發明)：First there is an advance in
knowledge, or an invention.(例如：愛因斯坦
的相對論。)
•
Innovation(創新)：The use of new
knowledge to produce a new product or to
produce an existing product more efficiently.
There are capital-saving innovations, and
labor-saving innovations.(創新有可分為
兩種：節省資本的創新和節省勞動力的創
新。)
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Economics of scale
(規模經濟促使生產力提升)
• Economics of scale(規模經濟)隨著公司的生產量
增加，長期平均總成本下降的特性。
• 規模經濟促使生產力提升的原因有許多種，例如：
公司若設立一個新廠，若其地點可進一步減低運輸成
本；
研發的支出和在職訓練的方案，也可因為公司規模加
大而使平均研發和在職訓練的成本下降。
若平均總成本下降，則平均$1的投入所產生的產出就
高。
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Other influences on productivity
(其他影響生產力的因素)
• 近年來，政府為了保護環境，以法規要求
廠商減低對空氣和水的污染，廠商為了達
到政府的要求，將其部份資本與勞動用於
減輕污染上，因此，減低了衡量出的生產
力。
• 近年來，政府為了保護勞工的安全和健康，
也以法規要求廠商要增加對勞工發生意外
的防範，和健康的保險，廠商為了達到政
府的要求，將部份的生產要素投入於對勞
工的安全和健康的保護，因此也減低的衡
量出的生產力。
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Growth and Output in the United States
(美國的成長和產出)
Growth of Real GDP in the United States, 1871 – 1999
PERIOD
AVERAGE
GROWTH
RATE
PER YEAR
PERIOD
AVERAGE
GROWTH
RATE
PER YEAR
1871-1889
5.5
1950-1960
3.5
1889-1909
4.0
1960-1970
4.2
1909-1929
2.8
1970-1980
3.2
1929-1940
1.6
1980-1990
3.2
1940-1950
5.6
1990-1999
3.1
Sources: Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, Tables F47-70, F98-124; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Growth and Output in the Selected countries
Growth of Real GDP in the United States and
Other Countries, 1981 – 1998
AVERAGE
GROWTH RATE
PER YEAR
COUNTRY
United States
Japan
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Canada
Africa
Asia (excluding Japan)
3.1
2.8
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.4
2.5
2.5
7.3
Source: Economic Report of the President, 2000, computed from Table B-110.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Sources of Growth in the U.S. Economy, 1929 – 1982
(美國經濟成長的來源)
註：the Great Depression發生在1929~1935，一次世界大戰1914~1918；二次世界大戰1939- 1945，第一次石油危機1973。
Sources of Growth in the United States, 1929 – 1982
PERCENT OF GROWTH ATTRIBUTABLE TO EACH SOURCE
1929 – 1982
1929 – 1948
1948 – 1973
1973 – 1979
53
49
45
94
Labor
20
26
14
47
Capital
14
3
16
29
Education (human capital)
19
20
15
18
Increases in productivity
47
51
55
6
Advances in knowledge
31
30
39
8
Other factorsa
16
21
16
-2
Increases in inputs
Annual growth rate
in real national
income
2.8
2.4
3.6
aEconomies
of scale, weather, pollution abatement, worker safety and health, crime, labor disputes, and so forth.
Source: Edward Denison, Trends in American Economic Growth, 1929 – 1982 (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1985).
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
2.6
Labor Productivity, 1952 – 2000
(勞工生產力)
註：第一次石油危機發生在1973，第二次石油危機在1981。
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Labor Productivity, 1952 – 2000
• Some of the explanations for the slowdown
in productivity growth in the 1970s include:
• a low rate of saving
• increased environmental and government
regulations
• lack of spending in R&D
• high energy costs
• However, many of these factors turned
around in the 1980s and 1990s yet
productivity growth remained low.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Economic Growth and Public Policy
(經濟成長和公共政策)
• Policy provisions to improve the quality of
education include the new Education
Individual Retirement Account that allows
savings to earn tax free returns as long as
the balance is used to pay for educational
expenses.
• Policies to increase the saving rate
include individual retirement accounts that
accumulate earnings without paying
income tax.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Economic Growth and Public Policy
• The amount of capital accumulation is
ultimately constrained by its rate of saving.
• The tax system and the social security
system in the United States are biased
against saving.
• Some public finance economists favor
shifting to a system of consumption
taxation rather than income taxation to
reduce the tax burden on saving.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
Economic Growth and Public Policy
• Other public policies to stimulate
economic growth include:
• policies to stimulate investment
• policies to increase research and development
• reduced regulations
• industrial policy, or government involvement
in the allocation of capital across
manufacturing sectors.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Pro-Growth Argument
(贊成成長的理論)
• Advocates of growth believe growth is
progress.
• New technologies and production
methods lead to new and better products.
Capital accumulation and new technology
improve the quality of life.
• In 1995, real GDP per capita was more
than twice what it was in 1950. Since the
1950s, incomes have grown twice as fast
as prices.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Pro-Growth Argument
• Advocates of growth believe growth is
progress.
• Growth gives us more choices.
• New technologies and production
methods lead to new and better products.
Capital accumulation and new technology
improve the quality of life.
• Since the 1950s, incomes have grown
twice as fast as prices so we can buy that
much more.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Pro-Growth Argument
• Growth saves the most valuable
commodity—time.
• Growth also improves the quality of things
that yield satisfaction directly.
• Growth produces jobs and higher incomes.
With higher incomes we can better afford
the sacrifices needed to help the poor.
• When population growth is not
accompanied by growth in output,
unemployment and poverty increase.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Anti-Growth Argument
(反成長的論點)
• Growth has negative effects on the quality
of life.
• Growth encourages the creation of
artificial needs.
• Growth means the rapid depletion of a
finite quantity of resources.
• Growth requires an unfair income
distribution and propagates it.
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
中華民國經濟成長(按1996年價格計算)
年別
GDP(NT$ million)
經濟成長率(%) 平均每人所得(%)
每人所得成長率(%)
1951
187,591
-
21,982
1963
474,423
9.35
37,685
7.26
1964
532,300
11.20
41,380
9.80
1965
591,569
11.13
43,873
6.02
1966
644,293
8.91
46,608
6.24
1967
713,307
10.71
50,293
7.90
1968
778,724
9.17
53,630
6.64
1969
848,408
8.95
57,539
7.29
1970
944,878
11.37
62,516
8.65
1971
1972
1,066,722
1,208,783
12.90
13.32
68,834
76.301
10.11
10.85
1973
1,363,900
12,83
84,128
10.26
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
-
Karl Case, Ray Fair
中華民國經濟成長(按1996年價格計算)
年別
GDP(NT$ million)
1974
1,379,747
1.16
82,264
-2.22
1975
1,447,748
4.93
83,989
2.10
1976
1,648,416
13.86
94,072
12.00
1977
1,846,383
10.19
101,044
7.41
1978
2,063,299
13.59
110,999
9.85
1979
2,231,953
8.17
118,256
6.54
1980
2,394,914
7.30
122,379
3.49
1981
2,542,505
6.16
125,263
2.36
1982
2,632,796
3.55
128,310
2.43
1983
1984
2,855,186
3,157,823
8.45
10.60
137,050
150,769
6.81
10.01
1985
3,314,214
4.95
156,783
3.99
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
經濟成長率(%) 平均每人所得(NT$) 每人所得成長率(%)
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair
中華民國經濟成長(按1996年價格計算)
年別
GDP(NT$ million)
經濟成長率 (%) 平均每人所得 (NT$) 每人所得成長率(%)
1998
8,565,134
4.57
368.685
4.38
1999
9,029,704
5.42
379,533
2.94
2000
9,558,698
5.86
389,637
2.66
2001
9,523,039
-0.37
389,122
-0.13
資料來源：行政院主計處國民所得統計(2002)。
© 2001 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Principles of Economics, 6/e
Karl Case, Ray Fair