Transcript Bank of England Inflation Report November 2009

Inflation Report
November 2009
Prospects for inflation
Chart 5.1 GDP projection based on market interest rate
expectations and £200 billion asset purchases
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for GDP growth. It has been conditioned on the assumption that the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of
central bank reserves reaches £200 billion and remains there throughout the forecast period. To the left of the first vertical dashed line, the distribution reflects the likelihood of revisions to
the data over the past; to the right, it reflects uncertainty over the evolution of GDP growth in the future. If economic circumstances identical to today’s were to prevail on 100 occasions,
the MPC’s best collective judgement is that the mature estimate of GDP growth would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan chart is constructed so
that outturns are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter green areas on 10 occasions. In any particular quarter of the forecast period, GDP is therefore expected to lie
somewhere within the fan on 90 out of 100 occasions. The bands widen as the time horizon is extended, indicating the increasing uncertainty about outcomes. See the box on page 39 of
the November 2007 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The second dashed line is drawn at the two-year point of the projection.
Chart 5.2 Projected probabilities of GDP growth outturns
in 2010 Q4 (central 90% of the distribution)(a)
(a) Chart 5.2 represents a cross-section of the GDP fan chart in 2010 Q4 for the market interest rate projection. It has been conditioned on the assumption that the stock of purchased
assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves reaches £200 billion and remains there throughout the forecast period. The coloured bands have a similar interpretation to
those on the fan charts. Like the fan charts, they portray the central 90% of the probability distribution. If economic circumstances identical to today’s were to prevail on 100
occasions, the MPC’s best collective judgement is that the mature estimate of GDP growth in 2010 Q4 would lie somewhere within the range covered by the histogram on 90
occasions. GDP growth would lie outside the range covered by the histogram on 10 out of 100 occasions.
(b) Average probability within each band; the figures on the y-axis indicate the probability of GDP growth being within ±0.05 percentage points of any given GDP growth rate, specified to
one decimal place. The probability attached to GDP growth being between any two rates is given by the total area of the shaded bars between those rates. As the heights of
identically coloured bars on either side of the central projection are the same, the ratio of the probability contained in the bars below the central projection, to the probability in the bars
above it, is given by the ratio of the width of those bars.
Chart 5.3 Projection of the level of GDP based on market
interest rate expectations and £200 billion asset
purchases
Chained-volume measure. See the footnote to Chart 5.1 for details of the assumptions underlying the projection for GDP growth. The width of this fan over the past has been calibrated to be
consistent with the four-quarter growth fan chart, under the assumption that revisions to quarterly growth are independent of the revisions to previous quarters. Over the forecast, the mean and
modal paths for the level of GDP are consistent with Chart 5.1. So the skews for the level fan chart have been constructed from the skews in the four-quarter growth fan chart at the one, two and
three-year horizons. This calibration also takes account of the likely path dependency of the economy, where, for example, it is judged that shocks to GDP growth in one quarter will continue to
have some effect on GDP growth in successive quarters. This assumption of path dependency serves to widen the fan chart.
Chart 5.4 GDP projection based on constant nominal
interest rates at 0.5% and £200 billion asset purchases
See footnote to Chart 5.1.
Chart 5.5 CPI inflation projection
based on market interest rate
expectations and £200 billion
asset purchases
Chart 5.6 CPI inflation projection in
August based on market interest
rate expectations and £175 billion
asset purchases
Charts 5.5 and 5.6 The fan charts depict the probability of various outcomes for CPI inflation in the future. Charts 5.5 and 5.6 have been conditioned on the assumptions that the stock of
purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves reach £200 billion and £175 billion respectively, and remain there throughout the forecast period. If economic
circumstances identical to today’s were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC’s best collective judgement is that inflation in any particular quarter would lie within the darkest central band
on only 10 of those occasions. The fan charts are constructed so that outturns of inflation are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter red areas on 10 occasions. In any
particular quarter of the forecast period, inflation is therefore expected to lie somewhere within the fans on 90 out of 100 occasions. The bands widen as the time horizon is extended,
indicating the increasing uncertainty about outcomes. See the box on pages 48–49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The
dashed lines are drawn at the respective two-year points.
Chart 5.7 CPI inflation projection based on constant
nominal interest rates at 0.5% and £200 billion asset
purchases
See footnote to Chart 5.5.
Chart 5.8 Projected probabilities
of CPI inflation outturns in
2011 Q4 (central 90% of the
distribution)(a)
Chart 5.9 Projected probabilities
in August of CPI inflation outturns
in 2011 Q4 (central 90% of the
distribution)(a)
(a) Chart 5.8 represents a cross-section of the CPI inflation fan chart in 2011 Q4 for the market interest rate projection. It has been conditioned on the assumption that the stock of
purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves reaches £200 billion and remains there throughout the forecast period. The coloured bands have a similar
interpretation to those on the fan charts. Like the fan charts, they portray the central 90% of the probability distribution. If economic circumstances identical to today’s were to prevail
on 100 occasions, the MPC’s best collective judgement is that inflation in 2011 Q4 would lie somewhere within the range covered by the histogram on 90 occasions. Inflation would lie
outside the range covered by the histogram on 10 out of 100 occasions. Chart 5.9 shows the corresponding cross-section of the August 2009 Inflation Report fan chart, which was
conditioned on the assumption that the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves reached £175 billion and remained there throughout the forecast
period.
(b) Average probability within each band; the figures on the y-axis indicate the probability of inflation being within ±0.05 percentage points of any given inflation rate, specified to one
decimal place. The probability attached to inflation being between any two rates is given by the total area of the shaded bars between those rates. As the heights of identically coloured
bars on either side of the central projection are the same, the ratio of the probability contained in the bars below the central projection, to the probability in the bars above it, is given by
the ratio of the width of those bars.
Chart 5.10 Frequency distribution of CPI inflation based
on market interest rate expectations and £200 billion asset
purchases(a)
(a) These figures are derived from the same distribution as Chart 5.5. They represent the probabilities that the MPC assigns to CPI inflation lying within a particular range at a specified
time in the future.
Chart 5.11 Frequency distribution of GDP growth based
on market interest rate expectations and £200 billion asset
purchases(a)
(a) These figures are derived from the same distribution as Chart 5.1. They represent the probabilities that the MPC assigns to GDP growth lying within a particular range at a specified
time in the future.
Financial and energy market
assumptions
Table 1 Conditioning path for Bank Rate implied by forward
market interest rates(a)
Per cent
2009
Q4(b)
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
November
August
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.5
0.5
0.6
1.1
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.7
Q1
2012
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q4
1.6
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
3.9
2.2
2.7
3.2
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.3
(a) The data are fifteen working day averages of one-day forward rates to 4 November 2009 and 5 August 2009 respectively. The curves are based on overnight index swap (OIS) rates.
(b) November figure for 2009 Q4 is an average of realised spot rates to 4 November, and forward rates thereafter.
Other forecasters’ expectations
Chart A Distribution of CPI central projections two years
ahead
Source: Projections of 23 outside forecasters as of 23 October 2009.
Chart B Distribution of GDP growth central projections
one year ahead
Sources: Four-quarter GDP growth forecasts of 24 outside forecasters as of 23 July and 24 forecasters as of 23 October 2009.
Table 1 Averages of other forecasters’ central projections(a)
2010 Q4
2011 Q4
2012 Q4
1.7
1.7
1.3
81.7
1.8
2.2
2.5
83.5
2.0
2.6
3.5
84.2
CPI inflation(b)
GDP growth(c)
Bank Rate (per cent)
Sterling ERI(d)
Source: Projections of outside forecasters as of 23 October 2009.
(a) For 2010 Q4, there were 25 forecasts for CPI inflation, 24 for GDP growth and Bank Rate and 20 for the sterling ERI. For 2011 Q4, there were 23 forecasts
for CPI inflation, 22 for GDP growth and Bank Rate and 18 for the sterling ERI. For 2012 Q4, there were 22 forecasts for CPI inflation, 21 for GDP growth,
19 for Bank Rate and 18 for the sterling ERI.
(b) Twelve-month rate.
(c) Four-quarter percentage change.
(d) Where necessary, responses were adjusted to take account of the difference between the old and new ERI measures, based on the comparative outturns
for 2006 Q1.
Table 2 Other forecasters’ probability distributions for CPI
inflation and GDP growth(a)
CPI inflation
Probability, per cent
2010 Q4
2011 Q4
2012 Q4
Range:
<0%
0–1%
1–1.5%
1.5–2%
2–2.5%
2.5–3%
>3%
4
8
6
14
12
10
23
18
15
24
21
24
18
21
23
10
13
14
7
8
9
GDP growth
Probability, per cent
2010 Q4
2011 Q4
2012 Q4
Range:
<-1%
-1–0%
0–1%
1–2%
2–3%
>3%
5
4
4
8
7
6
21
14
12
34
24
21
22
30
30
10
20
27
Source: Projections of outside forecasters as of 23 October 2009.
(a) For 2010 Q4, 25 forecasters provided the Bank with their assessment of the likelihood of twelve-month CPI inflation and four-quarter GDP growth falling in the ranges
shown above; 23 forecasters provided their assessment for 2011 Q4 and 22 forecasters provided their assessment for 2012 Q4. The table shows the average
probabilities across respondents. Rows may not sum to 100 due to rounding.