Transcript Inflation Report November 2004

Inflation Report
November 2004
Output and supply
Chart 3.1
Gross domestic product at basic and market
prices(a)
(a) Chained volume measures. Annual growth of GDP at basic prices for 2004 Q3 has been estimated using the preliminary estimate of
quarterly growth.
Chart 3.2
The fraction of the adult population(a) employed
by the private and public sectors(b)
(a) Defined as the number of people aged 16 and above in the household population of the United Kingdom.
(b) Based on LFS microdata.
Chart 3.3
Private sector output at basic prices(a)
(a) Chained volume measure, defined as GDP minus the output of the public administration, education and health and social work sectors.
Chart 3.4
Public and private sector employee jobs(a) and
the adult population(b)
(a) Workforce Jobs data. These refer to employment in the last month of each calendar quarter. The public sector is defined as the sum of the public administration,
education and health and social work sectors.
(b) Population data are as defined in Chart 3.2. These data refer to the three-month periods centred on the last month of each calendar quarter.
Chart 3.5
Output per hour worked in the private sector(a)
(a) Data on private sector output are as defined in Chart 3.3. Data on private sector hours worked are based on LFS microdata.
Chart 3.6
The level and quarterly growth in the private sector
capital(a)/labour(b) ratio
(a) Services measure.
(b) Private sector hours worked, as used in Chart 3.5.
Chart 3.7
Survey measures of private sector factor utilisation
Sources: BCC and CBI.
(a) Differences from series averages since 1995.
(b) Also includes agriculture, energy and construction.
Chart 3.8
The unemployment rate(a)
(a) LFS measure. Data before 1992 Q2 are currently published on an experimental basis. Data are shown for calendar quarters.
Chart 3.9
A weighted measure of non-employment(a)
(a) See page 27 of the August 2004 Report for details on the construction of this measure. Data are shown for calendar quarters.
Chart 3.10
Cumulative changes in employment rates by age group
since 1984(a)
(a) Based on LFS microdata. Data are shown for the spring quarter (March to May) in each year.
Table
Table 3.A
The manufacturing sector
Long-run
average(a)
2004
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
53.3
8
-1
6
56.7
8
15
21
56.6
17
7
12
55.2
10
6
6
n.a.
15
n.a.
14
0.2
-0.2
1.2
-1.0
n.a.
Balances
CIPS output(b)
BCC domestic orders(c)
CBI past output trends(d)
CBI output expectations(e)
Percentage change on a quarter earlier
ONS manufacturing output
Sources: BCC, CBI, CIPS and ONS.
(a) Averages are calculated since 1991 Q3 in each case.
(b) Data refer to the average of the three CIPS monthly balances.
(c) This series is shifted forwards one quarter since the survey question is likely to relate to future
output.
(d) This series is recorded in the quarter before the relevant CBI survey was published.
(e) This series is recorded in the quarter that the relevant CBI survey was published.