Transcript Vincent_Evans

An Overview of Business
Tendency Surveys
Richard Vincent
Richard Evans
Statistics Canada
International Conference on Establishment
Surveys
Montréal
June, 2007
Outline
Introduction
2. Global Overview of Business
Tendency Surveys
3. Business Tendency Surveys in
France
4. Business Tendency Survey in
Canada
5. Conclusion
1.
Introduction
Key Question
These surveys have many
commonalities, yet there are striking
differences.
Why?
Qualities of Business Tendency
Surveys
• Relevant
• Timely
• Qualitative, but based on informed opinion
• Forward looking (focus on next period)
• Comparable
Global Overview of BTSs
Number of Business Tendency Surveys by Region and Sponsors
Region
Western
Europe
Central
and
Eastern
Europe
North
America
Central
and Latin
America
Central
Asia
South
East Asia
and
Pacific
West Asia
National
Statistical
Agency
Economic
Research
Institute
Central
Bank
6
6
9
3
Employers'
Associations
1
Purchasing
Managers
Institute
3
Other1
Total
1
12
2
3
1
1
5
2
1
8
2
2
3
17
3
1
1
Africa
1
21
13
10
Total
1
Spain, Brazilo, Columbia, Taipei, and Saudi Arabia.
Source: Business Tendency Surveys, A Handbook (OECD, 2003)
4
1
1
9
1
2
5
1
54
Global Overview of BTSs
Industrial Coverage of BTSs
 Europe
•
•
•
•

Manufacturing
Construction
Retail Trade
Other Service Industries
Canada
• Manufacturing
• Traveller Accommodation

Purchasing Managers (USA, Europe)
• Manufacturing
• Services
Global Overview of BTSs
Content
Future / current business situation re:
• Production
• Prices
• Labour market
Business Tendency Surveys BTS in
Canada
Manufacturing BCS
 Since 1976
 Quarterly
 Stratified sample of 10,000 est.
 2 pages
 Three sections
• Impediments
• Current conditions (last quarter)
• Future conditions (next quarter)
BTS in Canada
Manufacturing BCS
 Well respected as leading indicator
 Two financial institutions ‘repackage’
manufacturing BCS and release
 Much media attention
 Can influence value of Cdn $
BTS in Canada
BTS in Canada
Manufacturing BTSs and the Canadian
Statistical System
 Not required as input into System of
National Accounts
 Considered during analysis of
composite leading indicators
 Supported by Department of Finance
and Bank of Canada
BTS in Canada

Quarterly Business Conditions Survey for the
Traveller Accommodation industry
• Developed in partnership with Canadian Tourism
Commission; Ontario Ministry of Tourism is now key
supporter
• Released for the first time: May 16, 2005 (Q2)
• Stratified sample of 2,500 establishments
• 2 pages, qualitative (comparable to Manufacturing BCS)
• Garnered much media coverage
• Used by National Tourism Indicators; Composite Leading
Indicator

Pilot surveys of BCS for Arts, Heritage, &
Recreation
BTS in Canada
Why a BTS on Traveller Accommodation
 Surrogate for tourism sector
 Industry suffers from severe slowdowns and
shocks; at the cusp of the business cycle
 Client interest in:
• forward looking indicators/intelligence
• Impediments
• Evidence based decision making for policy and
marketing
• Advocacy; e.g., media attention
• Policy making

Used by National Tourism Indicators; Composite
Leading Indicator
BTS in Canada – Why new survey?
Tourism demand in Canada by
product
$9,703
Passenger air transport
$9,051
Food and Beverage Services
$8,907
Accommodation
$5,578
Vehicle fuel
$4,676
Recreation and entertainment
$2,899
Travel agency services
$2,257
Pre-trip expenditures
$1,581
Vehicle rental
Vehicle repairs & parts
millions of current dollars
$1,101
$878
Interurban bus transport
$568
Other transport
Passenger rail transport
$284
$176
Convention fees
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
BTS in Canada-- Why new survey?
Change in Traveller
Accommodation Revenues, Yr/Yr
10,0%
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
-2,0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
-4,0%
-6,0%
Annual growth
2004
BTS in Canada
Why new survey?
Cyclicity
Pearson’s r
Leading, GDP
time t+1
Notes
Employment Services
.85
Non-scheduled Air
.72
Other Recreation
.70
Accommodation
.65
Performing Arts
.62
Amusement Parks
.55
Heritage Institutions
.36
Auto. Rental / Lease
.32
Includes leasing
Scheduled Air
.15
Includes freight
Travel Arrangements
-.05
Structural change,
demographics changing
Includes freight
Source: internal calculations, Service Industries Division, STC
1
BTS in Canada– Results Traveller
Accommodation
Outlook for Occupancy Rates
Balance of Opinion (0=neutral)
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
BTS in Canada– Results Traveller
Accommodation
Outlook for Average Daily Room Rate
Balance of Opinion (0=neutral)
50
ADR
Balance of Opinion
30
10
-10
-30
-50
2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
BTS in Canada– Results Traveller
Accommodation
Business Impediments
Q4 2006
30
25
20
% 15
10
5
0
Shortage of
unskilled
labour
Excess room
supply
Shortage of
skilled labour
Lack of
attractions
Canada's
reputation
General
economic
conditions
BTS in Canada– Results Traveller
Accommodation
Public Health and Safety no longer a worry
30
25
20
%
15
10
5
0
2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Public health and safety concerns
BTS in Canada– Results Traveller
Accommodation
‘Canada’s reputation’ increasingly important
30
25
20
%
15
10
5
0
2005 Q4
2006 Q1
2006 Q2
2006 Q3
2006 Q4
Canada's reputation as a tourist destination
BTS in France



Institut national de la statistique et
des etudes economiques (Insee)
Extensive array of surveys
Since 1952
BTS in France
Some features



1-3 pages
1000 to 5000 respondents
Results in overall balance of opinion
significant to 2 to 3 points
BTS in France
Some features (cont’)


Sectoral surveys
Thematic surveys
BTS in France
Partial list of Surveys

[LIST HERE]
BTS in France
Examples

[show very detailed questions on
questionnaires]
BTS in France
Examples (cont’)

[show example of outputs]
BTS in France
Examples (cont’)

[show example of European outputs]
Main Differences between
Canadian and French BTS
programs


Different emphasis on production
impediments
Better coverage in France
Conclusion
Reasons why Canadian and French
BTS programs are different
• Different mandates, client demand
• Different pressures to harmonize
Conclusion
Different mandates:
 Insee has a mandate to forecast GDP
• 2 quarters forward
• Highly regarded
• This generates an internal demand

Statistics Canada does not
• Different focus:


E.g., complete set of input-output accounts
by province
Extensive suite of largely survey-based
annual surveys to support the latter
Conclusion
Different mandates, different priorities

Canada: surveys that produce best possible
quantitative current indicators for GDP




Survey-based
Less financial pressure to use administrative data
sources
No influential internal client for qualitative BTS
However, an external client for its traveler
accommodation survey
Conclusion
Different mandates, different priorities
(cont’)

France: surveys that produce best
possible qualitative leading indicators
for GDP forecasts




Influential internal client
All survey-based
Mandatory
Current indicators are comparatively less important,
greater financial pressures to use administrative data
sources
Conclusion
Different international pressures to
harmonize

Why are such differences “tolerated”?
• No pressures to harmonize in the sense the different
iterations of the SNA 93 have exercised strong
harmonizing influence since the 1950’s
• Perception that BTS are “less important”, especially by
agencies that do not publish forecasts


CIRET’s recommendations are not nearly as
binding
There are strong pressures from within the EU
• But Canada is not a member!
Conclusion
The Future : what would need to
change?
 A change in mandate
 International will and desire to
“compel” countries to adhere to an
international standard (in the
manner of the SNA)
 Client financial commitment