Transcript Water Resources

United Nations Inter Agency Task Force Meeting
25 – 26 April 2002
Working Group 3 Contribution to the General
Discussion on:
DROUGHT
Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission
Drought Management
Challenge
- Why is it that despite the gradual onsite (‘creeping’) of
droughts, we are still unable to reduce the risk of
drought?
- Isn’t it suppose to be easier to manage as TIME is on
our side?
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission
Drought Risk
Drought: potential threat to humans and their welfare
(WG 1)
+
Vulnerability: exposure and susceptibility to losses
(WG 3)
=
Risk: probability of drought occurrence
Disaster: realisation of drought risk
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission
Social Vulnerability and Drought
Observations
Drought impacts are related to underlying conditions of:
** Population and Agricultural Resources
(INDICATORS: population density, cropland, irrigated land, cereal
yields, food production)
** Income and Agricultural Investment (Econ. Dev.)
(INDICATORS: GNP per capita, agricultural GDP, GDP growth, public
agricultural research)
** Food Security
(INDICATORS: household food expenditure, refugees, adult female
literacy, infant mortality)
** Water Resources (Water Use)
(INDICATORS: water resources, withdrawal, per capita withdrawal,
withdrawal/resources)
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission
Suggestion of Four Aspects of
Drought Vulnerability
** Population and Agricultural Resources
Agricultural resources are widely varying between
regions
** Income and Agricultural Investment (Econ. Dev.)
Indicators of agricultural incomes highlight the
enormous disparity in per capita GNP (from over
$20,000 to less than $500)
** Food Security
- disparities in household status and food security
** Water Resources (Water Use)
- Water resources vary widely between regions
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission
Drought Regional Indicators
- The crude indicators reinforce the conception of
vulnerability as a relative construct. Drought does not
affect all nations, economies and households to the same
extent or by the same impact pathways.
- For the more poorer countries (drought life threatening)
much of Africa is highly vulnerable on all counts;
- For most developing countries drought vulnerability
constitutes a threat to livelihoods, the ability to maintain
productive systems and healthy economies
- For the developed countries drought poses significant
economic risks and costs for individuals, public
enterprises, commercial organisations and governments,
but could manage the impacts
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission
Conclusions
- plethora of existing Drought vulnerability approaches/
theories (hydrobiological, natural hazards paradigm,
vulnerability frameworks, Discourse theorists approach)
- more research should focus on relationships between
resource, social, economic and political circumstances;
on who is vulnerable and why
- vulnerability is dynamic. Drought is a relatively short-term
event (spanning several years); vulnerability changes at a
variety of time scales, from within a season to decade-long
trends in development.
- vulnerability and societal definitions of drought are
poorly monitored, especially in comparison to the effort
spent on predicting and monitoring hydrobiological
conditions
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission
Conclusions
- A holistic interdisciplinary approach to drought
management is required to take on the drought challenge
- There is a need to improve the knowledge base on
drought vulnerability. Data availability problem should
be solved. Data information sources should be mapped
and access to data facilitated.
- It is recommended that a concerted action of the ISDR
IATF Working Groups be initiated to identify and
prioritise key needs in drought management in order to
focus on realistically manageable activities.
ISDR IATF Challenge
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission
United Nations Inter Agency Task Force Meeting
25 – 26 April 2002
THANK YOU!
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
European Commission