Transcript Is the Path to Human Well-being Inevitably Unsustainable?

Is the Path to Human Well-being
Inevitably Unsustainable?
Daniel Rainham
McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Ottawa
and
Environmental Sciences, Dalhousie
Ian McDowell (Ottawa), Rory Cantwell (McGill)
Overview
• Prevailing Objective: wealth = health
• Issues with the prevailing objective
• Consumption and health
• Biocapacity and consumption
• Resource inequalities ~ global health inequalities?
• Evidence
• Limitations
• Reframing health in the context of sustainability
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Wealth = Health
Mathers et al. BMC Public Health 2004 4:66 doi:10.1186/1471-2458-4-66
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Issues with wealth = health
• Humans appropriate ~30-50% of the present net primary
production in the biosphere (Pauly & Chrisensen, 1995)
• Global per capita GDP (US$) has doubled since 1960
• Income gap between the fifth of the world’s richest people and
fifth of the poorest has increased form 3:1 in 1820 to 74:1 in
1997 (UNDP, 2000)
• An estimated 24% of the global disease burden and 23% of all
deaths can be attributed to environmental factors (~ 35% in very
poor regions like sub-Saharan Africa) (Smith et al, 1999; WHO,
2006)
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Generating wealth – is this normal?
Fowler & Hobbs. Is humanity sustainable? Proc Royal Soc London B: Biol Sci 2003; 1533:2579-2583.
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Generating wealth – is this normal?
GDP
Ecological Footprint
Life Expectancy
Infant Mortality
Living Planet Index
Sources: UNDP, 2002; Wackernagel et al., 2002; WWF, 2004; World Resources Institute, 2004.
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Distribution of Natural Capital Appropriation
Sources: UNDP, 2002; Wackernagel et al., 2002; WWF, 2004; World Resources Institute, 2004.
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The Worsening Scientific Consensus
“Human activity is putting such a strain on the
natural functions of the Earth that the ability of the
planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations
can no longer be taken for granted.”
(MEA, Living Beyond Our Means, 2005)
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Relationship: HALE and Ecological Footprint (Global)
Rainham D, McDowell I. The Sustainability of Population Health. Population & Environment 2005; 26: 303-24.
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Relationship: HALE and Ecological Footprint (Canada)
Premature death
High blood pressure (%)
Infant mortality
Circulatory disease
BMI (%)
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Limitations
• Indicators: crude measures of population health; consumption
heavily weighted to energy use; no accounting for stock flows;
health effects from contaminants; issues with country-level data
• Correlational evidence; crude analysis
• Other determinants at play: governance, trade, culture, etc.
• Assumption that equitable access to resources is optimal – does
this make me a socialist?
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The Take Home Messages
• All human activities (development) are dependent on natural
capital and functions of natural systems
• Global trends in human development are currently unsustainable
• Focus on wealth generation for population health improvements
may be misguided – how to achieve health sustainably?
• Resources to support health, globally & nationally, are not shared
equitably (leading to health inequalities?)
• The most healthy populations are the most resource hungry and
unsustainable
• Directions for improvement? Learn from the outliers: Sweden,
Costa Rica, Cuba, etc.
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