Transcript International Comparison Program Overview and Status

International Comparison
Program Overview and
Status
Fred Vogel, Global Manager
ICP, World Bank
Workshop Goals
• Review Status of Data Collection
– Understand work plan/time table
– Exec Board’s reporting requirements
• Need to reconcile diverging schedules
• Ring Program—work plan—time table
• Housing, Health, Education, Gov’t, FCF
– Work plan—time table--methodology
• Tool Pack
• Executive Board issues and direction
• Advocacy--Poverty
Executive Board issues for
Discussion
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Progress report to donors
Minimum standards for data quality
Working paper on Fixity
Publication Policy
Policy regarding access to
– List of products and their specifications
– Individual product price observations
– Regional National annual average prices by product
(also Ring)
New or Updated Material
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•
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Chapter 8 revised Government services
Chapter 10—Basic Heading Parities
Chapter 11—The Ring program
Chapter 12—Housing and questionnaire
Papers available
– Equipment and Questionnaire
– Construction
Data Collection Status
• Concerns
– Readiness for all items
– Time required from getting funding/ and
start of data collection
• Keeping informed
– Executive Board direction
– Agree on reporting process
Bi Monthly Sta tus re port by country to Globa l office , Globa l Office summa ry to
Ex e cutive Boa rd
Country A
Food, Clothing Footw e a r
Surve y fra me w ork
Outle ts Chose n
Price colle ctors Tra ine d
Price colle ction
Be ginning da ta colle ction
Fre que ncy
Price submission to re gion
Re giona l w orkshop to re vie w
All housing e x ce pt re nta ls
Surve y fra me w ork
Outle ts Chose n
Price colle ctors Tra ine d
Price colle ction
Be ginning da ta
Fre que ncy
Price submission to re gion
Re giona l w orkshop to re vie w
Furnishings, house hold e quipme nt
Surve y fra me w ork
Outle ts Chose n
Price colle ctors Tra ine d
Price colle ction
Be ginning da ta
Fre que ncy
Price submission to re gion
Re giona l w orkshop to re vie w
Tra nsport, Comm. Re cre a tion, Re st & hote ls,Misc
Surve y fra me w ork
Outle ts Chose n
Price colle ctors Tra ine d
Price colle ction
Be ginning da ta
Fre que ncy
Price submission to re gion
Re giona l w orkshop to re vie w
He a lth, Educa tion, Housing (re nta ls)
Gov't, Equipme nt, Construction
Tool Pa ck
Ye s or No
ye s or no
Month
Months
Months
B
Management Principles
• You cannot manage what you do not
know.
• If you do not know what you do not
know, you are in deep trouble
• If you come to a fork in the road, take it?
Management requires having a road
map with alternative routes.
Strategy
• Define Readiness-start-finish
• Identify warning signs
• Process to deal with problems
– Survey-collection-time table
– Data quality—minimum standards
• Cut-off date for start of data collection
Understanding Readiness
CPI
Capital
City
Other
Regionss
Overlap
Between
CPI?ICP?
NON CPI
Readiness-Start-Finish
• Readiness
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–
–
–
Product specs being completed
Translated
Outlets identified
Price collectors recruited trained supervised
• Start--Monthly—Quarterly by aggregate
– Scope—Cap City—Nationwide?
– Data Submission—Schedule
– Data Submission—raw vs. averages
• Finish—Regional sign-off BH prices PPPs
Warning Signs
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Product specs not finalized
Data collection—starting by category
Data submission—ASAP and schedule
Data Quality—standards
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–
–
–
#products--#observations
Variability in observations
Timing, availability
Variability in PPPs
Fall back considerations
• Identify “Essential” Countries
– Monitor closely/keep global office informed
– Provide/request assistance
• Identify data to “move” to 2005 annual
• Capital city vs. National & data to estimate
• Reduce scope Consumption vs GDP in non
essential countries
• Cut-Off date for data collection—Make
judgement on 1 July whether third quarter
data can be supplied and how to proceed in non
core countries
• 0,0, zero third quarter—stage 2
• 0,0, data third quarter—Make judgement,take
Access
• Product specifications
• Individual price observations
• Average product prices
– Urban/rural
– outlet
• Who has access?
Data Quality Standards
• Within Country
– Number of products Priced by basic heading
– Number of price observations—time and space
– Variability of item prices--outliers
• Between country
– Number of products—depends on BH, situation
– Consistency/ variability of price ratios
– Consistency/variability of PPPs
Product 1 Fresh Mushrooms, whole, prepacked, 250-500g. Reference Quantity= 500g
(limits for exchange rate and PPP price ratios = 80% to 125%
Country National Currency# times
Price
Priced
x
y
z
5.86
5.23
43.92
Geometric Means
CV
5
8
6
Exchange XR Price limit
rate price Ratio
XRP
XRP/GM
%
5.4
5.86
111
11.9
5.23
99
14.9
4.81
91
PPP
Price
PPPr
5.29
PPPr/GM limit
Pri
8.03
3.11
5.92
152 >125
59 <80
112
5.29
CV of PPP price ratios
35.5
Average CV
V of
across
PPP all
price
products
ratios across
in Basic
allHeading
products in Basic Heading
45.7
S pr 
PRi  GM 
n 1
2
Step 7 (a)
Compute Basic Heading Parity—simple example
Prices by Country
Product A
1
10*
2
12*
3
15
4
25
B
40
16*
15*
Price Ratios
C
100
30*
100*
Geometric Means
Mean using direct and
indirect ratios
B/A* C/A C/B
4
10
4
1.25
1
2
2
4
(C/A)/(C/B) is indirect
estimate of B/A
1.71
1.76
Comparison of Parities
Rice
Milk
Meat
fruit
etc
Food PPP
Basic Heading
PPPs
PPP rice
PPP milk
PPP meat
PPP fruit
Country A
PPP
Country B
PPP
Readiness-Start-Finish
• Has data collection Started by country?
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Product specs being completed
Yes, DK, When?
Waiting for funds
Price collectors-how long before ready?
Monthly—Quarterly?
Scope—Cap City—Nationwide?
Data Submission—Schedule?
Data Submission—raw vs. averages
Necessary steps
• Identify “essential” countries
– Monitor closely/keep global office informed
– Provide/request assistance
• Warning signs
– Data collection—when starting by Basic heading
– Submission of data
– Data quality—number of products--number of
observations—degree of variability—coverage of
outlets--regions
– Response to questions and problems
Ove rvie w Of ICP Progra m
Ove rvie w
I
2005
II
House hold Consumption
Da ta Colle ction
Da ta va lida tion Country le ve l
Submit price s to re gion
Re giona l va lida tion--qua ra nta
Re vie w w ith countrie s
Estima tion of Na tiona l a nnua l price s
Re giona l va lida tion
Ba sic He a ding PPPs
Re vie w w ith countrie s
Housing, He a lth, Ca pita l Forma tion--Gov't
Comple te Spe cifica tions
Tra nsla tion
Da ta Colle ction
Da ta va lida tion Country le ve l
Submit price s to re gion
Re giona l Va lida tion Qua ra nta
Re vie w w ith Countrie s
Estima tion of Na tiona l a nnua l price s
Re giona l Va lida tion
Ba sic He a ding PPPs
Re vie w w ith Countrie s
Re giona l PPPs
Obta in 2004 Ex pe nditure We ights
PPPs for consumption
PPPs a t GDP
Globa l PPPs 2004 Ex pe nditure We ights.
Pre pa re Ring list
Tra nsla tion
Da ta Colle ction
Da ta Va lida tion country le ve l
Submit price s to Re gion/Globa l Coord
Globa l Va lida tion Qua ra nta
Estima tion of ring a ve ra ge price s
Ring va lida tion
Obta in BH PPPs a ll countrie s, a ll re gions
Ba sic He a ding re giona l PPPs
Ba sic he a ding Ring PPPs
Sca le re giona l PPPs to globa l PPPs a ll countrie s
Globa l PPPS/ GDP a nd indice s
III
IV
I
2006
II
III
IV
I
2007
II
III
IV
Different collection schedules
• 2005 is the reference year
• Joint responsibility
– Countries within region on track
– Regions on track
• Cut-off date for data collection to meet
publication goals