Transcript seminar21b
Muslim Radicalism in Pakistan and Afghanistan Juan Cole www.juancole.com Afghanistan Ethnic Groups • Pushtuns in South • Hazaras in Center • Tajiks in northeast, northwest • Uzbeks in North Afghanistan • Pop. 24 mn. • Literacy 36 % • 30% of 7,000 schools destroyed under Taliban • GDP $5 bn.; per capita $208 (among poorest in world) • Life expectancy: 43 Rise of Taliban Pakistan backs seminary students from early 90s “Taliban” Trained by Northwest Frontier Constabulary Then Inter-Services Intelligence After Taliban • Tajik Northern Alliance dominates government • President Karzai (a Pushtun) is weak • Little investment by US, int’l community • Provinces fall into hands of warlords US, NATO • 9,000 US troops still engaged in search and destroy • 2003 August – ISAF in Kabul taken over by NATO. • ISAF beginning to branch out Taliban Commanders • Former Taliban commanders • Saifur Rahman commanded Taliban against Operation Anaconda spring 2002 • In east, the Taliban's former deputy prime minister, Mullah Kabir, is supreme commander • Works with with activists of the Hizb-i Islami. Ties to Inter-Services Intelligence in Pakistan Resurgence of Taliban • 2003 June – 49 killed in clashes between Taliban fighters and government troops in Kandahar. • Tie between terrorists, drug running – 200,000 acres under poppy cultivation despite ban – 40% of economy comes from opium ($2 bn.) Taliban Attacks • Force of 2500 Taliban hiding out just over border in Pakistan • 13 aid workers killed in Afghanistan in 2003 • 9 already gunned down in second half of February • Including bombings, assassinations of UN personnel Constitution & Elections • 2004 January - Grand assembly - or Loya Jirga adopts new constitution. President is stronger than Pushtun warlords and Islamists had wanted. • Islam as religion of state. • Question of whether elections can be held Pakistan • 4 Provinces and Kashmir • Punjab • Sind • Baluchistan • NWFP (Pushtuns) • Azad Kashmir Pakistan Challenges • • • • • • • Pop. of 145 mn. Growing 2.1% per annum Low literacy 45% Poor school system; madrasahs substitute Still predominantly rural, poor Few signs of India-style globalization Light textiles important, disrupted by recent wars Militant Muslim groups grew up during antiSoviet war, Kashmir Musharraf • • • • Secular minded Hawk on Kashmir 1999 coup Turns on Taliban Sept. 2001 • Phony referendum May 2002 • Attempt to sideline major parties Oct. 2002 backfires • Islamists do well, hang parliament Pakistanis Largely not Islamists • Cautions: – Most Pakistanis are not interested in political Islam – Strong influence of Sufi mysticism, traditionalism in countryside – Pakistan People’s Party relatively secular – Even Muslim League more for big landlords than for Islamism – 1971-2001 Islamist parties never get more than 3% of vote in national elections Pakistan’s Interest in Afghanistan • Instability blocks Turkmenistan gas pipeline • Central Asian trade Kashmir • Jihadi groups trained in Afghanistan • Could hit India in Kashmir • Which Pakistan claims Muslim Political Parties • MMA main groups: – Jama`at-i Islami – Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam [JUI] (Deobandi) – Jamiat Ulema-ePakistan [JUP] Jama`at-i Islami • • • • • Fundamentalist Initially anti-democratic Cadre organization Qazi Hussain Ahmad Does well in elections for first time in Oct. 2002 • Demands return to 1973 constitution • Musharraf must take off uniform • Denies existence of alQaeda, demands end to manhunt Jamiat Ulama-i Islam • Radical clerics • Madrasahs trained Taliban • Leader Fazlur Rahman • Opposes US • Wants manhunt for alQaeda stopped Radical Jihadi Groups • Militant Organizatons – The Army of the Pious – The Army of Muhammad – Soldiers of the Companions • Anti-Shiite; close to alQaeda – Movement for the Imposition of Shiite Law Army of the Pious (Lashkar-i Taibah) • Rooted in Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad (MDI), fundamentalist organization. • Had recruited anti-Soviet fighters in 80s • 1990 forms LT • 1993 enters Kashmir • Fighters trained in madrasahs • Suspected in Delhi Parliament attack Dec. 2001 • Banned Jan. 2002 • Leader Hafiz Md. Saeed • Regroups, MDI separates activities in Pakistan from LT in Kashmir • LT now underground • Seeks Central Asian pan-Islam Jaish Muhammad • The Army of Muhammad – – – – – Founded 2000 By Masood Azhar active in Kashmir Funded by Bin Laden 13 Dec. 2001 Delhi parliament attack – Banned Jan. 2002 – Dec. 2003 assassination attempt on Musharraf Army of the Companions • Sipah-i Sahabah • Emerges in Jhang area of Panjab mid-80s • Violently anti-Shiite • Assassinations of Shiites, Christians • Trained in Afghanistan with Taliban • Headed by Azam Tariq until his assassination Oct. 2003 • Was elected from Jhang to parliament Pakistani Army and AQ Khan • Much smuggling of nuclear secrets happened 1989-91 • Under Mirza Aslam Beg, Chief of Staff • (Beg denies being in charge of nuclear program) • Khan is an Islamic Nationalist who believes it is hypocritical for US to support Israel’s bomb • ISI links to Islamists a worry; 3year rotations