Transcript Presentation-LEBANON

National Accounts of Lebanon
Lebanese National Accounts
Workshop on National Accounts
19-21 Dec. 2006, Cairo
Organized by Escwa
Historical Background
1964
• The Lebanese national accounts was first established in the year 1964 by
the central administration of statistics under the direction of Mr. Robert
Kasparian.
• The model used was similar to the SNA 1993 model adopted by the
international organization.
1994
• Work in statistical field was frozen till the year 1994 because of the war
incidents in Lebanon.
• The last economic accounts published by the Central Administration of
Statistics (CAS) date from 1994-95.
• The CAS publication, entitled “Statement of Economic Accounts”,
highlighted the statistical gaps which made it difficult to draw up accurate
economic accounts that cover all aspects of the economy.
1996-1999
• The CAS has made great efforts to fill these gaps:
– A census of housing units and establishments having an
economic activity in 1996.
– A sampling survey on household living conditions in June
1997, and a survey of household budgets in Beirut and its
suburbs throughout the year 1997.
– The Ministry of Agriculture carried out an agricultural
census in 1997 with the assistance of the FAO.
– The Ministry of Industry conducted an update for 1998 of
the industrial census originally taken in 1994 with the
assistance of the German technical cooperation agency
(GTZ).
– The National Employment Office carried out two
employment surveys in 1996 and 1999 with the help of
ILO.
2002
• The procedure to produce national accounts was delayed
because the central administration of statistics at that time had
basic tasks to execute.
• In early 2002, the Lebanese Government assigned a special
team in the Ministry of Economy and Trade the task of
compiling the national accounts for year 1997 till 2002 with
the technical assistance from the French National Institute of
Statistics and Economic Studies.
• The year 1997 was chosen to be the base year because the data
for the year 1997 are sufficiently complete to allow the
compilation of the main accounts describing all aspects of the
economic life of the country.
• 1997 may be considered a “normal” year – in that economic
activity returned to a normal volume after the period of major
project launches to rebuild the infrastructure destroyed by the
war, and had not yet felt the effects of the world recession that
appeared in subsequent years – and thus can serve as a base
year for the construction of economic accounts.
• This team completed its mission in July 2005.
2005
• In December 2005, the H.E. prime minister extended the
mission of the team to compile national accounts for the year
2003 till 2005 in the presidency of the council of ministers.
Publications
• Year 1997 issued in year 2003
• Years 1997 till 2002 issued in year 2005
• Year 2003 issued in year 2006
• The publication of year 2004 will be issued hopefully this
month.
Goods and services use-resource table (All products)
Current value
Nature of flow
Intermediate uses
Final consumption
GFCF
Exports
Changes in inventories
Adjustment
Total uses= resources
Output except Trade
Imports
Taxes/imports
Trade output*
LBP billion
2000
12 347
26 603
5 268
2 675
-160
0
46 733
31 862
9 027
1 939
3 905
2001
12 186
27 203
5 314
3 110
608
0
48 421
32 081
10 289
1 819
4 233
2002
12 954
29 293
5 479
3 492
-357
0
50 862
34 077
9 698
2 544
4 543
2003
14 157
31 176
5 862
3 788
-129
0
54 854
36 275
10 851
2 726
5 002
Note: Use-resource tables are established according to the territorial concept. Consequently imports
and consumption do not include household expenses abroad. In the same way, tourists expenses on
the territory are not included in exports but in consumption.
Goods and services input-output table
Year 2003 current value
LBP billion
Intermediate uses
Final uses
Total
3.
4.
Change
Adj Total Final
constru 5.
Conin
1.
2.
6.
8.
interm.
GFCF Exports
sumpt.
invent.
Agric. Energ. industr ction Transp. Other 7.
Admiuses
Branch
Livest. water
comm. serv. Trade nistrat.
1. Agric. & livestock
195
0 1 222
4
0
12
0
0 0 1 433 2 091
19
274
0 3 817
2. Energy & water
16
975
371
23
894
345
12
68 0 2 703 1 905
0
5
0 4 613
3. Manufacturing
173
103 2 707 1 623
15
626
232
134 0 5 613 10 972 1 886
2 374
-129 20 716
4. Construction
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0 3 957
0
0 3 957
5. Transp. & commun.
0
0
32
0
632
774
340
24 0 1 802 1 938
0
172
0 3 912
6. Other services
27
4
122
107
275
399
445 1 227 0 2 606 9 283
0
245
0 12 134
7. Trade
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
718
0
718
8 Administration
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0 4 988
0
0
0 4 988
Total uses
410 1 083 4 455 1 756 1 816 2 155 1 029 1 453 0 14 157 31 176 5 862
3 788
-129 54 854
Value added
1 640
187 3 510 2 201 2 096 9 979 6 699 3 535 0 29 846
Output
2 050 1 269 7 965 3 957 3 912 12 134 7 728 4 988 0 44 003
Imports
920 1 916 8 015
0 10 851
Taxes on imports
75 1 077 1 573
-2 726
0
0
0
Trade margins
771
351 3 162
-4 284
0
Total resources
3 817 4 613 20 716 3 957 3 912 12 134
718 4 988 0 54 854
Table of territorial corrections
Territorial
concept
Expenses of
tourists in
Lebanon
Imports
10 851
Exports
3 788
1 199
31 176
-1 199
Consumption
Expenses of National
Lebanese
concept
abroad
417
11 268
4 987
417
30 394
Note:
• Input-output tables are established according to the territorial concept. Consequently
imports and consumption do not include household expenses abroad. In the same way,
tourists expenses on the territory are not included in exports but in consumption. The
changeover to data according to the national concept is given at the bottom of tables.
• Activities in these tables are homogeneous in the sense that each activity produces a
definite group of products and each group of products is produced only by this activity.
Integrated economic accounts of the national economy
The international system of economic accounts (SNA93) considers the establishment of a
set of accounts for each of the five categories of agents of the national economy, noted by
S.1 and for the rest of the world noted by S.2.
The five categories of agents of the national economy are:
- S.11: non-financial enterprises
- S.12: financial institutions
- S.13: public administrations
- S.14: households
- S.15: non-profit associations
The level of development of Lebanese national statistics does not allow a correct
establishment of the economic accounts of each of the five agents separately. It is in
particular impossible to break down the operations of production and distribution between
non-financial corporations and households. It is however possible to estimate the main
elements of the integrated accounts of domestic agents as a whole and those of the rest of
the world in an approximate way.
The following tables present the integrated accounts of the whole national economy (S.1)
and the rest of the world (S.2). These accounts show the main aggregates characterizing
the economic activity during the period 2002-2003.
Integrated accounts of the national economy (S.1)
Uses
2002 2003
Resources
Uses
Accounts
2002 2003 Accounts
2002 2003
I. Production account
II.4. Use of income account
P11. Market output
32 001 33 983 P2. Final consumption
28 556 30 394
P12. Non-market output
4 814 4 988 B8. Gross saving
2 326 4 168
D2-D3. Taxes - subsidies /products
4 348 5 032 Total = GNDI
30 882 34 562
P2. Intermediate consumption
12 954 14 157
III. 1 Capital account
B1. Gross value added (GDP)
28 209 29 846
B8. Gross saving
Total
41 163 44 003 41 163 44 003 P51. Gross fixed capital
5 122 5 733
formation
II.1. Generation and allocation of primary income account
6
7
B1. GDP
28 209 29 846 D9. Capital transfers
D2-D3. Taxes - subsidies/products
4 348 5 032
4 348 5 032 B9. Balance: net
970
-2 466
D41. Interests
6 260 6 724
5 457 5 708 lending/borrowing
2 663 6 709
Private sector
2 166 2 471
…
… Total
Public sector
4 094 4 253
…
… III. 2 Financial account
B9. Net lending/borrowing
D1+D4. Compensation and other
incomes
19 720 20 100 20 222 20 769 F2. Currency and deposits (net) 6 144 12 920
2 089 1 323
F3 Securities other than loans
B5. Balance of primary income (GNI)
27 907 29 499
60
-675
Total
58 236 61 355 58 236 61 355 F4. Loans
98 1 425
F5. Shares / other equity
II.2. Secondary distribution of income account
7 656 15 728
B5. GNI
27 907 29 499 Total
D5. Direct taxes
1 213 1 318
1 213 1 318
D61. Social contributions
706
722
706
722
D62. Social benefits
1 738 1 655
1 761 1 678
D79. Other current transfers
453
470
3 405 5 510
B6. Balance of secondary income
(GNDI)
30 882 34 562
Total
34 992 38 728 34 992 38 728
Resources
2002 2003
30 882 34 562
2 326 4 168
338 2 540
2 663 6 709
-2 466
3 789
6 348
-618
603
7 656
970
7 515
3 738
137
3 367
15 728
The various operations carried out between the economic agents or flows arising from the economic activity
are broken down into the six following categories or subcategories of accounts: (the numbers are the codes of
the international classification of the accounts).
-
I. Production account
II.1. Generation and allocation of primary income account
II.2. Secondary distribution of income account
II.4. Use of income account
III.1. Capital account
III.2. Financial account
Evolution of the main economic aggregates 2000-2003
LBP (billion)
Nature of the aggregate
2000
2001
2002
2003
25 325
25 947
28 209
29 846
834
303
-302
-346
26 160
26 250
27 908
29 499
2 463
2 544
2 974
5 064
=GNDI
28 623
28 795
30 882
34 563
- Final consumption
26 029
26 591
28 556
30 394
2 594
2 203
2 325
4 168
274
450
331
2 534
= Gross disposable saving
2 868
2 653
2 656
6 703
-GFCF
5 108
5 923
5 122
5 733
-2 240
-3 269
-2 466
970
1 803
1 502
4 821
4 434
-437
-1 767
2 355
5 405
GDP
+ Net factors’ income
= GNI
+ Net current transfers
= Gross national saving
+ Net capital transfers
=Net lending(+)/borrowing(-)
+Foreign financing
=Balance of payments
- Gross domestic product (GDP) is the balancing item
of the production account of all economic agents
- Gross national income (GNI) is drawn from the
allocation of primary income account
- Gross national disposable income (GNDI) is the
balancing item of the secondary distribution of income
account
- Gross national saving is the balancing item of the use
of disposable income account
- Gross disposable saving and net lending/borrowing
are deduced from the capital account
- The balancing item of the balance of payments
appears in the financial account under the heading,
“Changes of cash and deposits”
Rest of the world accounts and balance of
payments
Accounts of the rest of the world (S.2)
Uses
2002
2003
Accounts
I. Goods and services operations
Imports
Exports
4 586
4 987
5 469
B11. Trade balance
6 281
10 056 11 268
Total
II. Primary income and current transfers account
B11. Trade balance
D1. Compensation of employees
686
788
D41. Interests
944
626
D4... Other incomes (net)
511
588
D62. Social benefits
23
23
D79. Other current transfers (net)
2 951
5 041
2 797
B12. Current account Balance
1 563
7 911
Total
8 629
Resources
2002 2003
10 056 11 268
10 056 11 268
5 469 6 281
694
706
1 747 1 642 Accounts
Uses
2002
2003
III. 1 Capital account
B12. Current account balance
D9. Capital transfers (net)
331
2 466
7 911 8 629 B9. Balance: net lending/borrowing
2 797
Total
III. 2 Financial account
B9. Net lending/borrowing
F2. Currency and deposits (net)
F3 Securities other than loans
4 259
F4. Loans
57
505
F5. Shares / other equity
4 821
Total
Resources
2002 2003
2 797 1 563
2 533
-970
1 563
2 797 1 563
2 466 -971
2 355 5 405
2 415
77
1 942
4 434
4 821 4 434
The operations carried out with the rest of the world are
recorded in four accounts, which release the main
aggregates of the balance of payments:
- I. Goods and services transactions account, the balance
being equal to the trade balance.
- II. Primary income and current transfers account, the
balance being equal to the current balance.
- III.1 Capital transfers account, the balance being equal to
foreign capacity or need for financing.
- III.2 Financial account, the balance being equal to the
balance of payments deficit or surplus
Evolution of the various balancing items of the balance of
payments 2000-2003
LBP (billion)
Nature of balance
2000
2001
2002
2003
Trade balance
5 812
6 567
5 469
6 281
-3 298
-2 847
-2 673
-4 718
2 514
3 719
2 797
1 563
-274
-450
-331
-2 533
2 240
3 269
2 466
-970
-1 803
-1 502
-4 821
-4 434
437
1 767
-2 355
-5 405
+ Net income and transfers
= Current balance
+ Net capital transfers
= Net lending/borrowing
+ Net financing
= Balance of payments
Note:
A positive balance in the foreign account represents a deficit for the country, while a negative
balance represents a surplus. Thus, the balance of payments was in deficit in 2000 and 2001,
and in surplus in 2002 and 2003.
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