Transcript Renewable Energy and Green Power

The Energy Challenge
and
Green Power
Professor K.B. Chan
Chairman, Hong Kong Electronic Industries Association
WEF
Shenzhen, China
November 15, 2009
Ref No.: SMT-CDV-091110WEF-Rev. 2.0
Contents
The Global problems
The energy challenge
The CO2 issue
What actions to take?
Renewable
100% Green Power?
Conclusion
The Global Problems
HKEIA
• 1. Population
2009
6.8 billion
2040
9 billion + ( ~ 30% increase )
• 2. Enough Resources? Quality Resources?
Land
Food
Raw Material
Air
Energy
Water
• 3. Economy
Growth
Poverty
• 4. Environment
Climate
Pollution
Waste
Page 3
The Energy Challenge
HKEIA
• Currently the world consumes total energy of
~ 16 TW ~ 2.4 kW per capita
( T = tera or trillion = 1,000 billion )
• By 2030 it will be
~ 23 TW ~ 40% increase
due to growth in economy, population
• Very uneven distribution – kW per capita 2009
USA -10, UK - 5, China – 2, Bangladesh – 0.2
Page 4
HKEIA
World’s primary energy supply :
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•
•
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80% - burning fossil fuels
43% oil, 32% coal, 25% natural gas
10% burning combustible
renewables and waste
5% nuclear
5% hydro
0.5%geothermal, solar, wind, . . .
Page 5
Electricity –
HKEIA
% of electrical output
World
China
Coal
41%
80%
Oil
6%
2%
Gas
20%
0.5%
Nuclear
15%
0.2%
Hydro
16%
15%
Bio & waste
1.3%
-
Geo
0.3%
-
Wind
0.7%
1.4%
Solar*
0.02
-
~ 11TW, 64% of primary energy
Page 6
Fossil fuel is running out soon!
HKEIA
Energy Timescales
Years Remaining
Oil
40 ~ 50
Natural Gas
60
Coal
120 ~ 200
If economic & population growth increase faster,
the above period will shorten!
Source: “Statistical Review of World Energy 2009”, (www.bp.com)
Page 7
HKEIA
Oil supply
Note: discoveries back-dated
Page 8
HKEIA
The CO2 issue
World Carbon Dioxide
Emission, Billion Metric Tons
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
29.0
30.4
31.0
2006
2008
2010
33.1
2015
35.4
2020
37.9
2025
40.4
2030
- Again unbalanced (Tonnes per person/yr)
- World - 4.4, USA - 19, UK - 8.6,
China - 4.6, Bangladesh - 0.25
Source: Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2009
Page 9
Global warming & Pollution - Forecast
HKEIA
 2050, sea level rise 1 meter
10% world populations will
lose their homelands
 2050 in China, output of crops
will down 30% due to water
shortage
 Premature deaths caused by air
pollution in each year:
 Globally - 2 million deaths,
 China 650,000, India - 530,000,
USA - 41,000
Page 10
Urgent tasks ahead for the world
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HKEIA
Reverse global warming
Reduce CO2 emission
Optimize fossil fuel consumption
Develop alternative energy source
Transition to 100% sustainable Green power
Maintain balanced economic growth
• Mission impossible???
Page 11
What actions to take?
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HKEIA
1.
2.
3.
4.
Reduce energy use
De-carbonization
Develop sustainable Green Power
Devise economic tools & political
will power to make the above happen
Questions :
• 1. Is there a solution at all?
• 2. Too little & too late?
Page 12
Reduce energy use
HKEIA
Where used – developed economy
Industry
~ 25%
Transport
~ 25%
Built/Environment/appliance ~ 50%
( private & commercial )
Industry – not much can be done! Could use
more for economic growth
Page 13
Built/Environment/Appliance
HKEIA
• Improve in building design can save > 30%
Housing stock take 100 years turn over
• Efficient appliance, heating & cooling
Change of lifestyle
Investment
• Lighting ~ 20% of electricity use
replace incandescent bulb by LED
even 100% cut consumption by 3%
Above can help but not enough!
Page 14
Transport
HKEIA
• 900million cars now, 2,100 million in 2030
• Almost 100% internal combustion engine,
huge consumption of oil & emit CO2
• Solution :
• 1. More efficient engine by 50%
just use less oil & less CO2
• 2. Electric cars – hybrid, plug in
battery issue, infrastructure & green electricity
• 3. Hydrogen car
too expensive and no infrastructure
Pace of introduction of green cars too slow!
Page 15
CO2 target – IEA 450 scenario
HKEIA
CO2 rises to 510 ppm 2035 – 2045,
then declines very slowly to 450 ppm
Page 16
De-carbonization
HKEIA
 Neutralization
Our earth has 4 million hectare of Jungle can
neutralize 97 billion metric tons of CO2 per
year
The neutralization will saturate in ~ 100 years
However, forest is disappearing fast due to
urbanization and over exploit of wood
Action : reduce wood usage
find alternative e.g. bamboo
re-forest
Page 17
De-carbonization
HKEIA
• CCS – Carbon Capture & Storage
• As we will still depend on fossil fuel for main
electricity generation till 2030 and beyond,
another 100 years?
• Design & build higher efficient power plants
• Develop and deploy technology to capture
and burial of CO2 from power stations and
large industrial plants!
Page 18
Renewable energy & Green Power
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
HKEIA
Biofuel
Hydro & tidal
Geothermal
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Page 19
Biofuel
HKEIA
• 1. Ethanol –
• 1.1 G1 – Corn, sugar cane
Only 2% gain
Disrupt food chain
• 1.2 G2 - cellulose
Ready in 2013?
Scale up issue
• 2. Biomass
• 2.1 Methane lock in permafrost
Technology not ready
May upset environment
** Both still emit CO2, just less.
Use to reduce oil consumption
Page 20
Hydro, tidal, geothermal, wind
HKEIA
• 1. Hydro – most available sites identified
• 2. Tidal – specific region
• 3. Geothermal – specific region
• 4. Wind
Mature technology
however unstable
only 25% efficiency
Page 21
Solar
HKEIA
• 1. Concentrate
• 2. Photovoltaic
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Unstable - sun dependent
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Night time issue
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Storage issue
• Both technology are mature
• Highly scalable
• Need cost down
• Government incentive
Page 22
Nuclear
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HKEIA
1. Fission
Good solution
Safe but social barrier
Uranium last only 80 yrs at current rate
Waste treatment
Fear of “making the bomb”
2. Fast breeder
Small scale & takes 12 years cycle
3. Thorium
Experimental
4. Fusion
Theoretical best solution but not yet success
Page 23
The challenge – 100% Green Power
HKEIA
• To replace all 11 TW with renewables needs
•
Hydro
~
1.5 TW
•
Nuclear ~
1 TW
•
Wind
~
3.5 TW
•
Solar
~
2.5 TW Concentrate
•
2.5 TW Photovoltaic
Page 24
We need to build - minimum
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300 more hydro stations
1,000 nuclear power stations
700,000 large wind turbines
8,300 solar concentrates
8,300 solar farms
HKEIA
@ 1 GW
@ 1 GW
@ 5 mW
@ 300mW
@ 300mW
• Efficiency not taking into account!
• Other Issues :
Investment?
Time required?
Trigger other environmental issues?
Engineering man power?
Page 25
The material hurdle
HKEIA
• The world does not have enough critical
raw materials to build them
•
Silver
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Lithium
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Indium
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Tellurium
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Platinum
•
Rare earth elements
Page 26
Possible scenario - IEA
HKEIA
Page 27
The conclusion 1
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HKEIA
Huge increase in energy demand and growing
Global warming is real and imminent, due to CO2
Fossil fuels will still be used for quite a long time
The reserve can be stretched and CO2 reduced by
Reduction in consumption
De-carbonization
Efficient power plants
Efficient appliance, building, cars
Change in lifestyle
Page 28
The conclusion 2
HKEIA
• Big challenge in developing & deploying
environmental friendly technology
• All formats are needed, main ones are
hydro, wind, solar, nuclear
• Many hurdles to overcome
• Huge R&D effort
• Huge investment & long build up time
• Global effort
• Political will power is the final key!
Page 29
The electronic industry is deeply
involved in all aspects.
We are part of the solution as
well as part of the problem!
Action is Now!
Do not wait for Copenhagen