Transcript Asia`s Political Future

Asia’s Political Future
Outline
• Major powers
– US, Japan, & China
• New challenges
– International security
– Human security
• counter-terrorism
• environmental protection
• health-related issues
Major Powers
• Asia’s political future depends largely on
the major powers in the region:
– How will US project its political, economic,
and military power in Asia?
– How will Japan project its political, economic,
and military power in Asia?
– How will China project its political, economic,
and military power in Asia?
Long-term Growth 1980 • From 1980 to 2000, two regions in the
world economy have performed well:
– rich OECD economies
• 0.9 billion people
• per capita GDP grew by 1.4% a year 1980-2000
– East Asia (excluding Japan)
• 1.8 billion people
• per capita GDP grew by 5.8% a year 1980-2000
Military Capital Estimates
Asia’s New Security
• Changing nature of security
– International security
• Human security
– counter-terrorism
– environmental protection
– drug trade
– infectious diseases
International Security
• The geopolitical landscape now lacks the
relative stability of the linear Cold War
division between the Soviet camp and the
US camp
• There is no obvious equivalent to USSR
• US is the world’s sole superpower
• No basic change foreseeable in future
Hot Spots in Asia
• Kashmir
• North Korea
• Taiwan Strait
Nature of Security
• State as rational actors
• State as non-unitary actors
• Actors of international relations besides
sovereign states
– international organizations
– non-governmental organizations
– mass public
Human Security
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counter-terrorism
environmental protection
drug trade
infectious diseases
Non-traditional Threats
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``Threats without enemies”
Turmoil and chaos from undefined sources
Cross international borders
Not linked directly to state behavior
Far more ambiguous in patterns,
processes, and effects than traditional
challenges
Comparative Aspects
• Traditional Security
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state
national security
structured violence
competition
interaction always lead
to relative gains
• Human Security
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individual/community
societal security
unstructured chaos
cooperation
interaction can lead to
absolute gains