Transcript PPT

Ecological Economics of Energy:
The Potential for a Transition to Renewables
CANUSSEE Conference 2015, Vancouver, Canada
Jonathan M. Harris
http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae
Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris
Can Renewable Energy Provide a
Solution to Climate Change?
• Long-term link between economic growth and carbon
emissions
• Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon
emissions
• Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions
determine speed of transition
• Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy
economy? Or both?
Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012
Biomass 10.0%
Wind, solar,
geothermal
1.0%
Hydropower
2.3%
Nuclear 5.1%
Oil
31.5%
Natural Gas
21.3%
Coal
28.8%
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013)
Availability of Global Renewable Energy
Wind
Total Global
Availability (trillion
watts)
1700
Availability in LikelyDevelopable Locations
(trillion watts)
40 – 85
Wave
> 2.7
0.5
Geothermal
45
0.07 – 0.14
Hydroelectric
1.9
1.6
Tidal
3.7
0.02
Solar photovoltaic
6500
340
Concentrated solar power
4600
240
Energy Source
Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration;
Stanford Engineering News, http://engineering.stanford.edu/news/wind-could-meet-many-times-worldtotal-power-demand-2030-researchers-say
Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global
Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources
Energy Source
Wind turbines
Wave power plants
Geothermal plants
Hydroelectric plants
Tidal turbines
Rooftop solar PV systems
Solar PV power plants
Concentrated solar power
plants
TOTAL
Percent of 2030
Global Power
Supply
50
1
4
4
1
6
14
20
Number of
Plants/Devices Needed
Worldwide
3,800,000
720,000
5,350
900
490,000
1.7 billion
40,000
49,000
100
Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area.
(Can be combined with agricultural uses)
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).
Global Potential for Energy Efficiency
Source: Blok et al. (2008) Global status report on energy efficiency 2008. Renewable Energy and Energy
Efficiency Partnerships. www.reeep.org
Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source
Business As Usual Scenario
Total Demand: 18,048 Mtoe
Hydropower
3%
Aggressive Climate Change
Scenario Policy
Total Demand: 14,920 Mtoe
Non-Hydro
Renewables
12%
Nuclear
6%
Oil
28%
Natural
Gas
22%
Hydropower
3%
Non-Hydro
Renewables
23%
Nuclear
11%
Coal
29%
Source: International Energy Agency, 2011.
Natural
Gas
20%
Oil
26%
Coal
17%
Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations (2003-2012)
Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).
Levelized Cost of Electricity for New Generation
Solar PV, utility scale
Solar thermal electricity
Wind-onshore
Wind-offshore
Hydroelectric
Gas combined cycle
Coal
Nuclear
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$/MWh
EIA
Lazard
Sources: http://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-v8-abstract/
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm
$250
Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods,
European Union
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Hydropower
Photovoltaics
Wind
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Eurocents per kilowatt-hour
Source: Owen, A. D. 2006. "Renewable energy: externality costs as market barriers."
Energy Policy 34: 632-642.
Solar Energy Price Decreases, 1998-2013
Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth. 2014. Tracking the Sun VII: an historical
summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2013. SunShot
Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy
Projected further decreases in solar costs, 2015 - 2040
Source: Feldman et al 2014. Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S.
Department of Energy SunShot Initiative: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf
Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, 2014. “Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review”.
http://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/Q4%202014%20SMI%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf
Declining Energy Intensity in
Industrial Economies, 1991-2008
Energy Intensity- Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars (1991 base year)
1.1
1.05
1
0.95
Canada
0.9
United States
Germany
0.85
United Kingdom
France
0.8
Italy
Japan
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Year
2001
2003
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011.
2005
2007
Source: EIA
Source:
2013.EIA 2012.
Business as Usual Scenario
2035
2015
~1% p.a. growth in energy demand
120 units total
100 units total
Renewables
10 units
90 units
carbon-based
Renewables
20 units
100 units
carbon-based
Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris
Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario
2035
2015
~1% p.a. decline in energy demand
100 units total
10 units
80 units total
Renewables
20 units
90 units
carbon-based
60 units
carbon-based
Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no
loss in employment (probably a gain)
Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Har
Decline since 2007: 12%
Source: US Department of Energy, 2013
ACCESSED AT: http://www.eia.doe.gov
PERCENT CHANGES IN EMISSIONS DRIVERS, 2012
CARBON
INTENSITY
ENERGY
INTENSITY
PER CAPITA
OUTPUT
POPULATION
percent change
Although 2012 was unusual, it shows the pattern of declining emissions: growth in
population and per capita output were outweighed by decreases in energy intensity (energy
use per dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy use).
Reduction in population growth rates and in GDP growth rates could accentuate this
trend, and will be necessary to meet carbon targets, but there is a lot of scope for
energy and carbon intensity reduction.
A good trend, but needs
continuing….
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - 2013
ARRA2009 denotes the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
Public Energy R&D Investment
12000
Millions of 2014 Dollars
10000
8000
France
Germany
6000
Japan
United Kingdom
4000
United States
2000
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: International Energy Agency, 2014.
2010
2015
Policies for the Renewable Energy
Transition
•
•
•
•
•
Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies
Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon
Energy research and development
Feed-in tariffs
Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan
terms
• Renewable energy targets
• Efficiency standards and labelling
• Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs