Transcript Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy

DEFLATION: ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE,
CURRENT RISK,
AND POLICY RESPONSES
8-30-2010
CRAIG K. ELWELL
P. From 1-10
Mahmood Al shammari
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paper includes:
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Background
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Deflation Caused by a Negative Demand Shock
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Deflation Caused by a Positive Supply Shock
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The Current Risk of Deflation in the United States
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Policy Responses to Deflation
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Background :
Since mid-2009, the economy has been on a path of
economic recovery. The economic growth during recovery
has been slow.
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The risk of deflation remains significant and could be a
potential threat to achieving sustained economic recovery.
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Deflation is a persistent decline in the overall level of
prices.
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Deflation occurs when price declines are so widespread and
sustained that they cause a (CPI), to decline for several
quarters, in a weak economy it can lead to a damaging selfreinforcing downward spiral of prices and economic activity.
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Financial crises tend to be deflationary because :
Increased economic uncertainty increases the demand for cash by banks and financial
institutions, constricting the flow of credit to households and businesses and dampening
their spending.
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It will exert downward pressure on the current price level, households and businesses
may come to expect the future price level to also fall.
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A self - reinforcing dynamic could be set in motion that will amplify the decline of prices
and output.
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Example of deflation’s harmful effect on economic activity was the United States in the
Great Depression of the 1930s.
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Example of kind deflations when economic activity expanded despite a falling price
level:
- U.S.A, from 1880 -1896.
- China, from 1998 through 2003.
The force generating the falling price level is collapsing (AD) or accelerating (AS).
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Deflation from a Negative Demand Shock Hurts
Economic Activity
This deflation can dampen economic activity through :
-wages, a falling price level will increase the “real” cost of
inputs, raising the unit cost of production, causes firms to
reduce production and employment.
-It will tend to increase “real” interest rates, dampening
credit-supported economic activity. ( r=i-f )
-It will increase the real debt burden of businesses and
households, repaying the loan principal with dollars of
rising real value, falling asset prices, collateral is losing
value.
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International Transmission of Deflation
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Occur in a system of fixed international exchange rates, such as under the
gold standard in the 1920s and 1930s.
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Trade imbalances caused gold outflows from countries with trade deficits and
gold inflows to countries with trade surpluses.
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The change in relative prices of foreign and domestic goods would then work
to correct the trade imbalance and stop the flow of gold.
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Central banks would intervene, deficit country reducing the money supply
and raising interest rates to slow the economy, push down the price level, and
improve the competitiveness of domestic goods.
International transmission of deflation is less likely within a regime of
flexible exchange rates, as used by the U.S and most major economies today,
because it allows independent policy action.
Because of the stimulus to total spending generated by the improved terms of
trade, the overall deflationary impact in the U.S tended to be modest.
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The Role of Expectations
- The expectation of further deflation can create a self-reinforcing
downward spiral.
- Government would need to convince economic agents to expect inflation
rather than deflation.
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Deflation Caused by a Positive Supply Shock is More Benign
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It increase the level of output, offsetting the negative effects of the
deflation.
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Decline in output prices is countered by a productivity-induced decline in
the per-unit cost of production.
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Increased productivity tends to increase real interest rates, which
provides an offset to the downward pressure on nominal interest rates
and helps to prevent nominal rates from hitting the zero bound.
Deflation increasing real debt burdens are offset by increased real
income.
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The Current Risk of Deflation in the United States
In 2008 and 2009, the U.S. economy received a negative demand shock
from the combined impact of the financial fallout from the full of the
housing price bubble in 2006 and a sharp cyclical downturn of the
economy beginning in late 2007 that continued through mid- 2009.
With the return of economic growth, the price level stabilized and began
to rise again, up about 1.0% through the first quarter of 2010.
Through June 2010 the CPI has fallen slightly.
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Several indicators can be used to assess the risk of deflation:
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1- Aggregate Price Behavior
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A steady fall of the aggregate price level as evidenced by movement in
the CPI or (PPI) is the clearest and most direct indicator of
disinflationary pressure in the economy.
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For the 12 months ending in June 2010, the CPI increased 1.1%, down from
2.0% in May 2010 and 2.7% in January 2010.
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For the 12 months ending in June 2010, the core inflation rate is 0.9% the
lowest rate of increase in 44 years, It decelerated further to 0.4%.
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The (PPI) for the 12 months ending in June 2010 increased 2.7%, down from
5.1% in May and 6.1% in March.
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For the 12 months ending June 2010, the “core” PPI for finished goods, which
excludes food and energy prices, increased a more modest 1.0%.
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2-Size of Output Gap
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In mid 2009 it was 7.0%, economic recovery narrowed the output gap to an
estimated 6.0%.
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It may continue to exert sizable downward pressure on the price level.
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3-Asset Price Behavior
Most asset prices fell sharply during the economic
collapse of 2008 and 2009.
The stock and bond prices have rebounded. Dow Jones
was near 6500 in March 2009 but has risen to over
10,000 since then.
household net worth, by the end of 2009, fallen $10
trillion below its level in 2007. Tending to weaken AD
and slow economic growth.
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4-Exchange Rate Behavior
During the last half of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, the dollar
appreciated as foreign investors increased their demand for
U.S.(T.secu).
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Dollar depreciated during the remainder of 2009.
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Over the first six months of 2010, the dollar appreciated about 5.0%.
Because of the sovereign debt problems in the euro area.
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Demand for low-risk dollar assets has strengthened again.
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An appreciating dollar will decrease the domestic price of imported
goods and exert downward pressure on the price level.
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Global “flight to quality” keep the demand for U.S. (T. secu) strong.
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5-Monetary Aggregates and Bank Reserves
Households hold cash rather than spend and financial institutions
attempt to increase liquidity and accumulate excess reserves rather
than lend.
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It will decrease the money supply and exert more downward pressure
on economic activity and prices.
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For the 12 months ending in June 2009, the money stock measure
M2 increased 9.2%.
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For the 12 months ending in June 2010, M2 has increased only 1.8%.
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This could be the result of higher demand for cash by households and
a diminished willingness of banks for lending.
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low rate of money supply growth could be deflationary.
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6-Proximity to Zero Bound
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If nominal interest rates are at or near zero, deflation will increase
real interest rates and dampen interest-sensitive spending.
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It creates an economic environment in which the negative effects of
deflation on economic activity can be sharply amplified.
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7-Price Level Expectations of Investors
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If the nominal rate on the (T.secu) is higher than the inflationindexed rate, investors are thought to be expecting inflation as
measured by the premium of the nominal rate over the inflationindexed rate.
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So far, however, broad-based price indexes show a deceleration of
inflation but do not reveal the presence of deflation.
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Recently, estimates of inflation expectations have moderated, but
they still remain positive.