Transcript MDM4U Culminating Project Ontario Society and

MDM4U Culminating Project
Unemployment and Divorce in
Ontario
By:
Rachel Wang
Glebe Collegiate Institute
For Mr. Garvin Boyle
Contents
•
•
•
•
Introduction
Thesis Question and Hypothesis
Data Preparation
Analysis of Graphs
– Observations
– Interpretations
• Conclusions and Considerations for the next project
• Summary
Introduction
•
•
•
This is the second portion of the culminating project for the MDM4U Data
Management course.
The purpose of this project was to retrieve and investigate possible
relationships between variables.
Five variables were retrieved from the Statistics Canada database:
– Rate of induced abortions per 1,000 females in between the ages of
25 and 29.
– Unemployment rate of population in between the ages of 25 and 44.
– Total number of divorces.
– Rate of crimes of violence per 100,000 individuals.
– Net financial debt, in millions of dollars, of the Ontario provincial
government
Thesis and Hypothesis
• Thesis
– Are there any correlations between the conditions of economy
and the stability of families in Ontario?
• Hypothesis
– It was hypothesized that a strong positive correlation exists
between the unemployment rate and the rate of divorce. When
people become unemployed, the standard of living decreases
dramatically, and this may cause psychological issues such as
anger and depression. This may result in disagreement and
arguments between a couple, and may eventually lead to
divorce
14.1
13.2
13.2
13.6
14.0
15.2
19.5
20.4
21.4
22.9
23.5
24.4
24.9
23.7
22.1
20.7
20.7
20.1
19.7
19.1
7.9
7.1
6.3
5.4
4.6
4.8
5.8
9.0
10.1
10.4
9.1
8.2
8.7
7.4
6.2
5.5
4.9
5.6
6.5
6.0
21636
20851
27549
39095
32524
31298
28977
27694
30463
28903
30718
29352
25035
23629
25149
26088
26148
26516
26170
27513
684.5
723.2
769.1
842.8
867.3
907.3
968.1
1042.6
1045.2
1051.7
1003.9
962.4
933.8
908.6
896.4
852.8
886.7
874.4
828.7
779.5
21496
23699
27804
29954
31804
32659
37683
40966
51261
63797
77052
86045
97016
104163
108137
108761
107409
103140
103510
102611
6845825
6968408
7098868
7272385
7439335
7665021
7813412
7913609
8009979
8098533
8196608
8297287
8395525
8518808
8635434
8761914
8918731
9103974
9298440
9467509
ns u
me
r
Ind Pric
e
ex
Co
Es
t
Po i mat
e
pu
lat s of
i on
age
ov
18 er
Ne
t
De Fina
nci
bt
of
al
O
nta
Pr
o
r
Go vinci io
ve r al
nm
ent
te o
fC
of
Vio rim e
l en s
ce
Ra
tal
Am
Div oun
orc t of
es
To
Un
em
plo
y
Ra m en
t
te
te o
fI
Ab nduc
or t
e
ion d
s
Ra
Ye
ar
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
59.4
61.8
64.6
67.8
71.0
75.1
78.7
82.4
83.2
84.7
84.7
86.8
88.2
89.8
90.6
92.4
95.1
98.0
100.0
102.7
Data Preparation
•
•
•
•
Of the five variables that were collected, three variables were measured in
rates, which meant that they were unaffected by population and inflation
However, the total number of divorces contained population-driven data,
while the net financial debt contained inflation-driven data.
To remove the effect of population, the total number of divorces had to be
divided by the total population of Ontario, so that the divorce per capita was
found.
To remove the effect of inflation, current year dollars must be converted into
constant dollars by dividing a value by its corresponding Consumer Price
Index, which measures the changes in consumer prices, and multiplying by
100. In this case, the base year was 2002, which meant that the financial
debt in 2002 will stay the same.
Year
Rate of Induced
Abortions
Unemployment
Rate
Number of Divorces
per capita
Rate of Crimes of
Violence
Net Financial Debt in
millions of constant dollars
1984
14.1
7.9
0.0032
684.5
36188.6
1985
13.2
7.1
0.0030
723.2
38347.9
1986
13.2
6.3
0.0039
769.1
43040.2
1987
13.6
5.4
0.0054
842.8
44179.9
1988
14.0
4.6
0.0044
867.3
44794.4
1989
15.2
4.8
0.0041
907.3
43487.4
1990
19.5
5.8
0.0037
968.1
47881.8
1991
20.4
9.0
0.0035
1042.6
49716.0
1992
21.4
10.1
0.0038
1045.2
61611.8
1993
22.9
10.4
0.0036
1051.7
75321.1
1994
23.5
9.1
0.0037
1003.9
90970.5
1995
24.4
8.2
0.0035
962.4
99130.2
1996
24.9
8.7
0.0030
933.8
109995.5
1997
23.7
7.4
0.0028
908.6
115994.4
1998
22.1
6.2
0.0029
896.4
119356.5
1999
20.7
5.5
0.0030
852.8
117706.7
2000
20.7
4.9
0.0029
886.7
112943.2
2001
20.1
5.6
0.0029
874.4
105244.9
2002
19.7
6.5
0.0028
828.7
103510.0
2003
19.1
6.0
0.0029
779.5
99913.3
One-Variable Analysis
The twenty data points of unemployment rates were plotted into five intervals.
The graph appeared to be slightly right skewed, with the bin of the lowest
interval having the highest frequencies, but generally uniform distribution. This
suggests that the Ontario economy is in a stable condition, and the trend is that
during majority of the twenty years, the unemployment rates were fairly low.
The data collected during the twenty years form 1984 to 2003 were put into
five bins of equal intervals. The graph appeared to be right skewed, in
which most number of data points were located in the bin with the lowest
values, and least number of data points were located in the bin with the
highest values. This suggests that most married couples in Ontario were
content with their marriages, and that they were in good relationship with
their spouses.
Two-Variable Analysis
The unemployment rate of population between the ages of 25 and 44 in Ontario
from 1984 to 2003 was placed on the x-axis, while the number of divorces per
capita in Ontario over the same time interval was placed on the y-axis. A
regression line was plotted to show the relationship.
y = -4E-05x + 0.0037
0.006
divorces/person)
Divorce Rate (number of
Unemployment Rate vs. Number of Divorce per
capita
R2 = 0.0129
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.002
4
5
6
7
8
9
Unemployment Rate in Ontario (%)
10
11
Observations
• There appeared to be a very weak negative relationship between the two
variables, with a coefficient of determination of 0.0129.
– The closer the value is to 1, the stronger the correlation.
Interpretations
• This weak relationship indicates that the financial stability of a family has
little effect on the decision of a couple to get divorced, and occasionally,
when the unemployment rate increases, the divorce rate actually decreases.
It may be possible that during financially difficult times is when couples
support each other and stay together. When the standard of living is stable
and high, people become unsatisfied, and problems arise which may result
in divorce.
Of the other five variables that were collected, other than the two variables that
were the interests of the study, correlation graphs of other variables can also be
created. The net financial debt of the Ontario provincial government and the
rate of induced abortions were graphed using a scatter plot.
Net Financial Debt
($ million)
Ontario Financial Debt vs. Rate of Induced
Abortions
y = 6103.7x - 39956
R2 = 0.5838
130000
80000
30000
12
17
22
Rate of Induced Abortions (per 1000 females)
Observations
• The coefficient of determination, which indicates the strength of the
relationship, was above 0.5, which indicates a moderately strong
positive relationship between the two variables.
Interpretations
• When the government is in debt, it indicates a weak economy.
• When the economy is not strong, it may be reflected in elements such
as decrease in employment rate and inflation resulting in increase in
prices of products, which will decrease the standard of living of
individuals.
• When a person is in financial difficulty, he/she may become unable to
support a newborn child, so those who find themselves being pregnant
may seek induced abortions as a solution.
Conclusions and consideration for a next
project
•
The hypothesis was that a strong correlation existed between the
unemployment rate and number of divorce per capita.
•
The observation was that there was no correlation between the two
variables.
•
The hypothesis was incorrect.
•
In the next project, some other aspects of society can be considered, and
find factors that have an effect on the rate of divorce.
Summary
•
•
The primary interest of this project was to find possible causes for divorce in
Ontario.
Five variables were retrieved and modified, all of which contained data
collected within Ontario:
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
Rate of Induced Abortions
Unemployment rate
Number of divorce per capita
Rate of crimes of violence
Net financial debt of Ontario provincial government
The hypothesis was that an increased unemployment rate would cause an
increase in the number of divorce per capita.
Through analysis of graphs, it was observed that there was no correlation
between the two variables, so the hypothesis was proven to be false.
A strong positive correlation was found to exist between the rate of induced
abortions and the net financial debt of the provincial government.