Transcript trade promotion policies in the black sea region

TRADE PROMOTION
POLICIES IN THE BLACK
SEA REGION
Presentation by Oleh Havrylyshyn
Black Sea Conference on Regional
Integration And Growth
Feb. 23-24,2009
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OUTLINE
I. TRADE PATTERNS AND TRENDS
II. STATUS OF GOVERNMENT
POLICIES AFFECTING TRADE
III. MAIN POLICY CHOICES FOR
PROMOTING TRADE,REGIONAL
INTEGRATION, AND
SUSTAINED GROWTH
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TABLE 1. KEY TRADE DATA: BLACK SEA COUNTRIES
Country
TOT.Expo
rt Growth
p.a.2000-06
Exports to
BS $m.
BS Export
Share
BS Import
Share
Share of
Manufactu
res in BS
Exports
Armenia
24.5
187
19.3
33.1
9.9
Azerbaijan
34.3
1,142
17.9
(49.4)
37.8
2.4
Bulgaria
21.6
2,820
18.7
15.3
37.7
Georgia
23.1
492
53.9
49.9
20.3
Moldova
14.7
520
51.0
50.2
39.1
Romania
21.2
4,844
15.0
15.0
56.0
Russia
23.0
28,105
9.3 (12.0)
9.7
6.0
Turkey
18.5
5,514
6.5
10.0
57.7
Ukraine
20.4
19,781
40.1
31.6
24.5
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KEY FEATURES OF BLACK
SEA ECONOMIES AND
TRADE
• Tab.1: Black Sea Region (BSR) 9 countries, definition
could be wider
• BSR quite large: population 300m (EU 550m); GDP
$3.5tr.= one-fifth of EU GDP
• BSR very diverse in size, income percap etc
• Recent GDP growth very high (5-10%+), trade growth
even higher
• Exports of transition BSR: concentrate on resources
or resource-intensive manufactures
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DIRECTION OF TRADE CHANGE
• Transition led to opening up, TRADE/GDP
ratios now 50-100%+
• Big shift from intra-Soviet trade to global,EU
now major market for most.
• Trade among BSC increased, now 10-50%;
UNDP study suggests potential much higher
• Nevertheless EU will continue to dominate as
a market both because of much greater size
and orientation of formal trade agreements
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THREE TYPES OF POLICIES
AFFECT TRADE
• BORDER MEASURES (BR) : TARIFFS AND
NON-TARIFF MEASURES (NTM’s)
• BEHIND-THE-BORDER INSTITUTIONAL
CONDITIONS (IE):EASE OF DOING BUS.,
CORRUPTION, RULE-OF-LAW, etc.
• TRADE FACILITATING CONDITIONS (TF):
QUALITY OF INFRASTRUCTURE, CUSTOMS
PROCEDURES, TRADE FINANCING etc.
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RELATIVE IMPACT ON TRADE
FROM : BR, IE , TF
NEW CONSENSUS IN RECENT TRADE
POLICY STUDIES:
• BORDER MEASURES DECLINED , BUT
LIBERALIZATION STILL GIVES BENEFITS
• IMPROVING IE OFTEN MORE BENEFITS
THAN REDUCING BR
• TF MEASURES OFTEN YIELD VERY LARGE
TRADE BENEFITS
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TABLE 2. POLICIES AFFECTING TRADE OF
BLACK SEA COUNTRIES.
Country
1.Averag
e Tariff
%
2.TTRI
Rank
3.IE
Rank
4.LPI
Rank
5.Rule of
Law percentil
e
6.Corrup
tion
Control
percentil
e
Armenia
3.0 **
n.a
44
132
40.5+
30.0-
Azerbaija
n
9.2*
58
33
111
23.3 - -
11.1 - -
Bulgaria
5.2**
21
45
55
51.4+
53.1+
Georgia
1.4**
n.a.
15
n.a.
42.9+
48.3+
Moldova
5.2**
12
103
106
29.5 - -
29.5-
Romania
5.2**
21
47
51
50.5 - -
55.6 -
Russia
11.1*
72
120
99
16.7 - -
16.4 - -
Turkey
10.1**
4
59
34
53.3 -
59.4 -
Ukraine
6.9**
46
145
73
27.6
26.6 -
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CURRENT TARIFFS AND NTM’S
IN BSR
• TARIFF AVERAGES SIMILAR TO EU , LOWER
THAN DEVELOPING AVERAGE- EXCEPT IN
NON-WTO MEMBERS
• BUT TARIFF DISPERSION STILL HIGH IN
MANY, esp. AGRIC. GOODS; MUCH ROOM
FOR REDUCING HIGH TARIFF CATEGORIES
• NTM’S GENERALLY HIGHER THAN FOR
COMPARABLE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES;
CONSIDERABLE ROOM FOR REDUCTION
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INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT
• TWO COUNTRIES RANK VERY HIGH
FOR IE, BUT EVEN THESE ARE
RECENT AND POSSIBLY FRAGILE
ACHIEVEMENTS
• FOR MOST RANK ON IE AND
GOVERNANCE INDICATORS BELOW
OR WELL BELOW COMPARABLE
INCOME COUNTRIES
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TRADE FACILITATION RANKING
• THREE COUNTRIES BETTER THAN
MEDIAN TF ( THEY ARE MEMBERS OR
CANDIDATES FOR EU)
• MOST CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
MEDIAN TF
• LARGE SCOPE FOR TRADE
PROMOTION VIA TF
IMPROVEMENTS
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MAIN POLICY CHOICES
• FIRST PRIORITY INTEGRATION INTO
GLOBAL,REGIONAL, ARRANGEMENTS
RECOGNIZING DOMINANCE OF EU MARKET
• REDUCE MAXIMUM TARIFFS , NTM’S
• STRONG EFFORTS ON INSTITUTIONS,
RULE-OF-LAW,CORRUPTION CONTROL
• TRADE FACILITATION,FIRST EASIER
ACTIONS OF ADMIN. SIMPLIFICATION, ALSO
BEGIN LONG-TERM IMPROVEMENTS OF
PHYSICAL AND MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE
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MAIN POLICY CHOICES
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