Transcript The Knowledge Society - Why and How: Role of - WBC

THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY –
WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF
SCIENCE AND CULTURE
Ivo Šlaus
World Academy of Art and Science, member Board of Trustees,
SEED – South East European Division, president
World Council Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs
and The Club of Rome
Why
◙
◙
◙
◙
1) The contemporary world:
globalization – science generated
rapid changes – science generated
characterized by uncertainties and instabilities,
number of Earths required to provide resources used by
humanity and to absorb their emissions for each year:
1970
1980
2005
0.86
1.00
1.25
World is dangerously in a state of overshoot.
◙ Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with governance
♣ Cross-border trade: 1950 = 8% GDP, 2000 = 25% (Kant)
♣ 24 “globalizers” (3 billions) increased GDP/c by 5% vs
“nonglobalizers” decreased by 1%
400 household goods in UK 20% cheaper than 10 years ago
By 2010 50% internet users in developing world vs 4% now.
♣ Worker/producer←person→consumer/stakeholder
Dramatic “conventional jobs” reduction, new skills
♣ 30 new infectious diseases in 20 years, resistance to
antibiotics, flu pandemic
♣ Terrorism (tanker in harbor: 55xHiroshima), crime (cyber)
♣ Trust changes quickly:
1975: 20% American trust military vs 63% in 2000
Decision-making: quite local and global
Educated vs Uneducated
demonstrate
31%
6%
stopped buying goods
70%
34%
Failures
◙ Income gap:
1960
1990
1997
30:1
60:1
74(82):1
◙ Undernourishment in industrial 2.5%,
in Africa 40%
◙ In 1998 › 45% of people had to live on ‹ $ 2/day
1981 to 2001: living on $1/day fell by factor of 2
while living on $2/day increased from 2.4 to 2.7 billions
◙ 54 countries experienced in 1990-2001 decline in GDP/c
◙ 1945 →1985 →2005
1985
2005
USA
23,000
10,500
USSR/Russia 40,000
9,000
world
70,000
30,000
Country Governed by the Will of the People?
Non-EU Europe
Yes
No
North America
European Union
Africa
E & C Europe
Asia/Pacific
Latin America
Mid East
Total Sample
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Gallup Voice of the People May-June 2005:
50,000 citizens, 65 countries equivalent 1.3 billion persons
(1)Election free/fair
◊ world
◊ East Central Europe
47%
33%
(2)Country governed by
the will of the people
30%
22%
Political stability index = (1)(2) + (1)(-2) – (-1)(-2)
PSI 2003
World
Middle East
14
44
PSI 2004
PSI 2005
12
45
5
26
Business leaders
•
•
•
•
Not competent
Unethical
Too much power
Dishonest
23%
38%
46%
40%
Political leaders
45%
49%
53%
61%
Most important problems facing the world today
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Poverty
Terrorism
Unemployment
Wars and conlicts
Economic problems
Environment
Drugs
Crime
26%
12%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
CONSEQUENCES
DESTRUCTION
OF CIVILIZATION
MAD
ltu
u
c
re
local
war
inadequate
governance
NATURAL
lut
io n
_
xe
no
bio
te e
a
m g
clichan
GLOBALIZATION
-
pol
WMD
pov
he
a lt
h
erty
rorism
r
e
t
h
wit
PROBABILITY
100 %
How
Learn from successes:
☺
world ave developing world
1960: 2250
2100 Kcal/day capita
1997: 2750
2600 Kcal/day capita
☺ Higher life expectancy and healthy active life
☺ end of Cold War and spread of democracies
☺ successful treaties, e.g. ozone
‼ Eliminate violence, war, terrorism→ Development,human and
social dignity, full employment
Culture of peace and knowledge:
democracy and freedom
‼ Eliminate ignorance → Research and
↓
in spite of cumulative advantage feature of
science → breakthru → catch up
education
↓
not an elite in a sea
of mediocrity
◙ We have to live with dangerous technologies ‼
◙ We have to live with uncertainties: in quantum
physics from uncertainties to quantum computer and
life ‼
◙ Reduce non-renewable resources and substitute
by other resources.
◙ Reduce and eliminate dangers and threats we face.
◙ Knowledge can cause quantitative and qualitative
jump in the GDP/capita
◊ psycho-social pressures and stress + perception that our
dignity and that of our social group is threatened + short term
interests ← globalization → interdependence/ no major war
◊ energy demand: in 2030 → 2.6 times larger
◊ small influence → large effects (CO2) → Search for
alternative inputs much earlier than we reach a maximum.
◊ whatever we do not do today will be more difficult to do
tomorrow.
Our greatest success: Knowledge
☺ existing science, humanities and technology;
☺ knowledge one produces: ongoing and planned R&D,
innovations; ideas
☺ education;
☺ language, literature, art
Knowledge is the main resource in a knowledge-society.
It permeates the life and the culture of a society: policyand decision-making. It implies long-term and global
perspective. Knowledge society is constantly changing,
constantly asking: why.
Knowledge is inexhaustible and it is increased by sharing.
Caveat: Knowledge is contextualized only within a
specific cultural system.
All cultures need constant changes?!!
TIME
♣ Chronos and Kairos
♣ There was no time when we did not exists (Bhagavad Gita)
♣ Man is afraid of time, but time is afraid of pyramides(Arab)
♣ Future is an ethical category – we choose it.
(Soedjatmoko)
Theory of relativity – Albert Einstein
While most resources existed separately of people,
knowledge resides in people.
☺S&T give the power to change the future.
☺“Today knowledge is becoming the main political power”
(Alvin Toffler)
♣ IGO handful 1900 to 4667 in 1996
♣ NGO 196 in 1900 to 44,000 in 2000
♣ global civil society
♣ Knowledge-Governance Intertwining
Values – Goals – Rules – Habits
Long-term and short-term (market, current politics)
♥ Assure sustainable consumption. Minimize the dangers of
modern technologies. Revitalize hidden and traditional
knowledge.
♥ Beyond tolerance to cultural understanding.
Roadmap
☺Each nuclear state reduces its nuclear weapons
(number and power) in half every two years.
☺Each state reduces its total military power in half
every five years.
☺USA, Russia and China ban antipersonnel mines.
☺Appreciate: Education is needed not only for jobs
and skills, but much more to be able to live.
☺Assure: Low-cost technologies, e.g. ICT: $100
laptops.
☺ education at all levels for everybody and lifelong
Europe USA
◙ % working population 21 % 38%
with tertiary education
◙ Gross enrolment
52% 81%
Japan South Korea
36%
82%
Within 500 leading universities – Europe – cradle of
education – has very few.
☺ European Institute of Technology as a network
Senior executives would spend most R&D in : China
39%, USA 29%, India 28%, UK 24%, 19% Germany
Shift to interpersonal work → increase number of jobs
No discrimination w/r/t gender, age, disability
Flexibility – Mobility – Stability – Social cohesion
(Indian-born residents in the USA account for 0.1% of the
USA population and their aggregate income represent 10%
of Indian GDP)
Jobs are and will be not what they used to be: high use of
ICT and networking.
♣ Economy will swell by 40% from 2005 to 2015
♣ Chinese middle class: from 65 millions in 2005 to 650 in 2020
☺Appreciate:
♣ Work ≠ Employment.
♣ Changes in jobs, skills, human resources development.
♣ Capacity to manage change.
♣ Taking risks and controlling risks.
☺Each state reduces unemployment by 2% each 2 years by
increasing employment in education and research. [Since less
person-hours are needed to achieve the same output in agriculture
and manufacturing and since part of services are redundant, the
demand for new jobs will be in education (About a factor 4-6,
since instead of 12-16 year education, a lifelong, i.e. about 60 year
long education, and for a much larger number od persons.) and in
R&D. Knowledge-intensive sectors in EU = 33% (UK = 41%)
◙
◙
◙
◙
◙
GER&D
top 1% cited articles
scientific publications
world researchers
(5521 in thousands)
researchers/million inhabi
Europe
1.99%
37.3%
46.1%
33.4%
1843
2319
USA Japan
Turkey
2.76% 3.12% 0.64%
62.8%
39.4% 10.8% 1.6%
22.8% 11.7% 0.4%
1261
647
23
4373
5085
325
☺ Each state increases its GER&D to reach 3% of its GDP, but
assuring that all R&D outputs indicators (top 5% cited papers,
number of NP and FM laureates and of fellows of
international/regional academies, number of leading universities and
research institutes) increase, intertwining knowledge with economy
and governance (assessed by involvement of active top scientists in
policy- and decision-making bodies above a threshold of 10%).
Ownership of knowledge – Knowledge as a common good.
Cooperation
“The best place to store food is in another person
belly.”
(Eskimos’saying)
♥ Golden moral rule: reciprocal altruism is an
example of a win-win game. The state when
nobody can gain without somebody else losing –
i.e. all win-win games are exhausted - is called
the Pareto optimum.
♥ Innovations and more importantly, scientific
breakthroughs can increase the Pareto
optimum.
TABLE 25
Various indicators assessing social impact of R&D
Country
ESI
HDI
GCI
GI
HLS
Range
0-100
0-1
Ranking
Ranking:
62-1
0-100
Slovenia
58,8
0,879
31
25
69,5
Croatia
62,5
0,809
53
22
66,0
B&H
51,3
-
-
-
61,5
S &MN
-
-
-
-
61
Macedonia
47,2
0,772
81
-
56
Romania
-
0,775
75
40
59,5
Bulgaria
-
0,779
64
-
45,0
Greece
50,9
0,885
35
26
-
Albania
59,7
0,733
-
-
-
Italy
47,2
0,913
41
24
84,5
Austria
64,2
0,926
17
8
81,5
Hungary
62,7
0,835
33
23
65,0
Czech Republic
50,2
0,849
39
15
69,5
Turkey
50,8
0,742
65
53
72,0
USA
53,2
0,939
2
11
89,5
Ireland
54,8
0,925
30
1
90,5
Conclusion
♥ In our own selfish interest we have to get involved in
the betterment of global conditions. We need to
emphasize cooperation, networking and solidarity,
increasing human options and freedom.
♥ Development of human and social capital, and increasing
the Pareto optimum requires knowledge-based society.
♥ In a knowledge society individuals and social groups will
behave and act irrationally, make numerous mistakes, even
be stupid. It is the responsibility of the knowledge society
to develop and establish ways that can minimize their harm
and maximize their possible benefits.